figuring odds to call when all the cards are out

[cold_cash]

Can anyone give me any tips about this?

Let's say for instance, I'm heads up on the end with a hand I'm not especially proud of. Let's also say the pot is offering me 8 to 1 on a call. This means my hand will have to be good 1 time out of 9 to make calling the correct play? (This might not be right, so please correct me if I've got something backwards.)

If this is correct, how do I estimate if my hand will be good that many times? Is this just a hunch/educated guess based on how good my hand is and what possible hands I think my opponent might be holding?

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Typically, if it's one bet to you on the river you should call most of the time unless you really, really know you are beat. You will win more of these hands than you would expect, and you also prevent your opponents from taking shots at you on the river.

There's the obvious mucks (four-flush, four-broadway) when you don't have that fifth card, but other than that, fling those checks out there.

[Bob T.]

Let's say for instance, I'm heads up on the end with a hand I'm not especially proud of. Let's also say the pot is offering me 8 to 1 on a call. This means my hand will have to be good 1 time out of 9 to make calling the correct play? (This might not be right, so please correct me if I've got something backwards.)


You got it right.

Is this just a hunch/educated guess based on how good my hand is and what possible hands I think my opponent might be holding?

Yep, if you aren't sure, calling with a loser, is a much smaller mistake than folding a winner. Error on the side of calling one bet too often on the river.

[cold_cash]

Thanks a lot guys. After I got to thinking about this, I realized something else. I think it could be argued that almost ANY hand would be worth a call if the pot is reasonably big. Let's say in my example hand, if my opponent will make a stone cold bluff 1 time out of 9, then that fact alone should make calling correct. Correct?

I understand that I don't want to be going wild with this concept, but am I wrong? Is there a time when you would ever fold an even mildly questionable hand in a semi-large, heads up pot for one more bet on the river?

Another thing.... I've read a few great posts recently about the disasters that can occur when we do throw it away for one more bet in a big pot, but how many bets make a pot "big"? I can tell the difference between a small pot and a real hum-dinger, it's the in-between ones that give me trouble and I don't want to be leaking chips in spots where the chips to be won don't warrant the risk.

But, hopefully I'm not finding myself in this situation too often. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[cold_cash]

Party Poker 0.50/1 (10 handed)
Hero has 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and is CO

MP1 limps, Hero limps, Button folds, SB limps, BB checks

Flop(4 SB): K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls

Turn(6 BB): 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls

River(10 BB): T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB bets, BB folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls


Was this just retarded?

[BugsBunny]

Well first of all with me in the CO and only 1 limper in front of me I muck this preflop.

With that said -
Flop raise is fine - OESD + flush draw
Turn is fine
Yes I make the crying call on the river fully expecting to lose. But it's possible opponent has a slowplayed str8, busted inside str8 draw, or who knows what. He could just be bluffing at the pot with his busted draw. He could have a lower (or higher) flush. HU I'll make this call every time (and if I'm the opponent I probably bet into a board like this if I'm first to act and have a busted draw almost every time as well. It's a great bluff board)

[Bob T.]

Or he could have top pair.

[Saborion]

If you're talking about your call on the river, no, it was not retarded. You shouldn't be thinking about folding your that hand at that point.

[Mike Haven]

i'll take a different slant on your question, if i may

let's say it's a 1-2 game with 16 in the pot, 2 to you to call

you can:

a/ call and win 16

or b/ call and lose 2

in other words you can win once and lose 8 times to break even, in the long run, in this situation

it is said that you are getting 8 to 1 on your money at this point

now, the bad news is that of that 16 "win" maybe 4 was your own money before the hand started, so you are really only winning 12 for your total of 6 bet in the hand, or, you are getting only 2 to 1 on your money, overall - you have to win once in every three similar hands to be a new-money winner

of course, you can argue that before you put any money into the pot you don't know you will end up wondering if you will win 12 or lose 6 by the end of the hand

however, this is a very common scenario and it shows that what you have asked is in fact more relevant to the primary question, "should i put any money in this pot with my hand, knowing that i'll probably only be getting 2 to 1 on my investment, on the few times that i will actually still be in the pot at the river?"

for the common answer given in this thread to be correct, in an overall game and strategy sense, rather than just simply mathematically, you must be sure that the hand with which you first entered the pot stood a good chance of remaining, or becoming, the best hand in the pot, throughout

imo

[addendum:

looking back to my initial premise that you can win once and lose eight times to "break even", (on that bet), you will see now in fact in an overall game sense that you will win 12 and lose 48 if by bad opening-hand strategy you have put yourself in the position that your hand wins only once in nine times]

[BigEndian]

My $.02. By and large the other posts cover this. But, keep in mind that as you progress up in tables, the skill of your opponents goes up and the texture of the tables gets more complicated.

There are tables that are tight and aggressive to the extent that if you don't pick and chose your spots to call on the end, those extra bets that are dragged the other way can have a big impact on your session. Calling on the end shows less value in the pots you drag as it does keep the players in check against making moves and should be done less frequently.

- Jim