Changing my mind on the river

[James282]

Good 5/10 6 max etc etc

I get dealt AhTd in the cutoff, folded to me and I raise and the SB and BB call.

Flop comes 8d 9d Ts SB checks, BB bets, I send it up, SB folds, BB reraises, and I cap it.

Turn comes a 7h.

BB bets out again, I fear that he was jamming an openender with some sort of backdoor flush or some such and just call.

River is the Ts. He now thinsk and thinks and eventually bets. I raise it up. Comments?
-James

[stripsqueez]

i wouldnt raise the river - you are not keen about paying a 3bet - his thinking has little to add to the equation - he may of hit his straight on the turn and be wondering if he should be scared of a full house - or he might just be busy playing at another table

about the only hand he should call a river raise with is a 10 with a lower kicker - not a likely holding - i suppose he could have a big pair but again that seems unlikely

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Schneids]

I don't raise the river. The fact you capped the flop and he still bet into you on the straight making turn makes me a little hesitant that he was holding a pair+straight draw.

I guess I can hope he got out of line with QT or KT, but that's about the only hands it is realistic to put him on that your raise is happy to see (unless he'd call the river raise with 98, 97, or 87).

At least you know JT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is impossible for him to hold. Would he be the type to three-bet you on the flop with JT? Or J9/8? Or Jx /images/graemlins/diamond.gif? I assume until proven otherwise it's safe to assume a random Party opponent would jam the flop with most of these hands... thus making it a call on the river for me.

[chezlaw]

I think I dont bet/raise enough on the river but I would just call. He liked his hand a lot before the river and then finds something to worry about. The long think can be a reliable tell if he has been acting quickly till now, and suggests to me that he thought he had the best hand and fears you have overtaken him.

Apart from a straight, possible hands you have overtaken are 2 pairs or an overpair but would he have bet these on the turn after you capped the flop? Seems unusual for a typical player so he most likely has a straight and fears you have filled up.

You will probably tell us he called with one pair or a worse 10 and you were ahead the whole time /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Did you consider just folding to his turn bet? Unless I thought he was tricky or over-aggressive I think I would have given this up. Is this too weak?

[Ulysses]

I don't like the river raise here. You beat 89, QT, KT and lose to everything else he should reasonably have.

[ZeeJustin]

Call the river.

[lockitup]

I think the key here is your subject line: "Changing my mind on the river." Well, obviously it is... or you would have called it something else.

Looks like a clear case of the juicy river card influencing your read. If you put him on the straight, well, clearly the river didn't change anything. He'll have a hard time paying off your raise with a worse hand, but no problem calling/three-betting with a better one. Looks like a wasted bet, and maybe two if you plan to pay off.

Trust your read.

[James282]

You can't fold the turn here heads up, you have no reason to think he has you beat if he is a typical player in these games. His pause made me think he had 2 pair forfeited by the ten, turns out he had KT and didn't want to miss a value bet but feared the straight himself. I think he would have bet his forfeited two pair as well enough times to make this profitable..as well as overpairs and all of the other hands he would bet on the turn. Most opponents would raise the turn with a straight here, which is why he felt comfortable betting out on the river as well...I think he was simply making up his mind as to what he would do if I raised.
-James

[James282]

Ulysses, I disagree. Party poker players will call with just about anything out of the BB. Tx is a very reasonable hand for him to have where X could also be 2-5. His bet on the turn could mean he has 98 97 or 87 as well. An overpair is also possible. His pause on the end is particularly suspicious if he is a sucky player. His hand now has what he thinks is "real showdown value" so he bets because he doesn't want me to check behind. Obviously I can fold if he makes it three bets.
-James

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Party poker players will call with just about anything out of the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
Tx is a very reasonable hand for him to have where X could also be 2-5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think most players will 3-bet you then lead the turn w/ T2 after you cap the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
His bet on the turn could mean he has 98 97 or 87 as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
An overpair is also possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible, but not all that likely.

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I can fold if he makes it three bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a problem, then, because a player sucky enough that you can put him on T4 as a very reasonable hand can very easily 3-bet here w/ that hand.

[chezlaw]

Thanks for replying. Of course you are right and must call the turn. The pot is too big to fold what might be the best hand.

Do you really think there is no reason to think you are beat? I play mainly at paradise and when the average joe 3 bets a coordinated flop gets capped and then bets the turn then they can normally beat top pair top kicker. Have I still got this wrong or is party just way different to paradise.

As for the read, looks like I got this wrong as well. /images/graemlins/frown.gif still don't think I can persuade myself to raise the river.