Opinions needed- NFL futures bet on Carolina next year

[Easy E]

One of my irate "customers" who is still steaming about how lucky the Panthers got wants to get her money back and angrily offered me the following:

50:1 against the Panthers winning the division in '04

10:1 that they make the playoffs

Her "reasoning" is that the Panthers played a weak schedule last year and will have to play a tough schedule this year due to their SB appearance.

Is there any way to take the latter bet, without any information about rosters, injuries, etc? Or is this silly to even consider?

Let me know what you think, before she cools off...

[hutz]

Here are some super-quick thoughts from a 100% non-expert handicapper:

If I understand your post correctly, you would be the one betting in favor of the Panthers on both bets. If that's the case, I can't imagine not taking advantage of the first one. The 50:1 odds on them winning the division are incredible. The 10:1 odds for the playoffs are much less attractive. Carolina's 2004-05 opponents are already set and are independent of their SB appearance. They appear to have a pretty tough schedule, with Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Arizona, St. Louis, Oakland, San Diego, and Green Bay at home and Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, and Philadelphia on the road. The Arizona, Oakland, San Fran, and San Diego games are the only obviously soft games on the schedule. Their road schedule is pretty brutal, in fact. Despite that, the core of their team should remain intact and 50:1 seems pretty tough to pass up for any of the teams in that division.

[Wildbill]

My guess is they won't win the division, but 50/1 is silly ridiculous. The worst team in football has a better than 50/1 chance of winning their division!

They got lucky with no major injuries after losing Fields before the season started. These things don't last for long. They are in a extremely tough division with each team having a shot at winning next year. The Bucs could bounce back, the Falcons will definitely improve, the Saints may not win it but will be contenders. Even with all that, how can 50/1 ever be justified.

[bigpooch]

What's the most you could bet on the 50:1 ?

[Easy E]

I should have just jumped on it on sheer odds alone, but I wasn't feeling well nor thinking quickly.

[Easy E]

just the amount she lost on the SB with me.

[AnyAce]

I agree 50:1 is awesome.

For what its worth:
On tradesports (www.tradesports.com) you can bet on sporting (and other) events in a market type environment.

The panthers to WIN THE SUPER BOWL are trading at:

Bid of 21:1 and offered at 17:1 with a last trade of 19:1.

During the summer they will begin trading contracts on winning the division and conference.

50:1 sounds like a good deal to me...

Anyace