Tough one with 99

[PrayingMantis]

We're last 6 at a 11$ 2-tables SNG (4 see the money). It's been one of the toughest, blinds 200/400, ante 25, and the stacks are pretty similar: 6575, 5560, 5545, 5275, 3130, 915.

I'm fifth with 3130.

Play is very tight, very aggressive, all-in or big raises and re-raises pre-flop, and many folds. Almost no flops. we play like that for a long time. I've made more than my own share of all-in's, few times now, with some pretty marginal hands, because I'm getting nada from the dealer. People are waiting to trap me.

So, I'm getting 99, UTG+1. UTG (5560) folds. What's your move?

6th stack is pretty short, so I could wait for him to bust. But I can take here the blinds + ante, which are now T750 - not bad. On the other hand, I don't really want to be called by over cards here, not to talk about a big-pair. I don't feel too short stacked yet... Or am I wrong?

Push? raise? stop-and-go? limp-fold? what?

(Kurn, you were talking about being very aggressive with a marginal hand, and then fold a better one next hand, or orbit, just because you feel it's bad timing. I wonder if this 99 situation fits in that category?)


PrayingMantis

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You'll have a hard time folding into the money here, as 2 people have to go out.

You still have enough chips to scare the bigger stacks.

How long until the blinds go up? How often have you been stealing? When was your last all-in open-raise?

6-handed, I'd have a hard time folding 99 here, so I'd more than likely push in. My example was raising twice in a row and getting something like AJo the third time (what I raised with would be irrelevant since they don't know what I had). 99 doesn't need to improve to win. A big stack could easily call you with 88-55. You're going to have to double-up or keep stealing to make the money.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
How long until the blinds go up? How often have you been stealing? When was your last all-in open-raise?


[/ QUOTE ]

Blinds were about to turn 300/600 in a few hands. I pushed twice during last 10 hands, last push was two hands before. The others see me as a regular stealer with garbage, no doubt about it. For example, once I took a few seconds before folding PF in EP, and one of them said: "no stealing this time?". I think I open-raised in this game more than re-raising PF, though.

Again, short stack is very close to disappearing. Naturally, my first thought with this 99 was to push, that's the best hand I got dealt in a long time. I agree about having to steal or double-up to make the money. Yet, for some reason, I felt maybe I'll have better chance with only 5 in, stealing a few times in better position rather than pushing here, and facing probably a coin-flip situation.

Anyway - I pushed, and big-stack on CO called with QQ. But I'm not interested in the "bad luck" aspect of the result, only with my original move.


PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

Bet the pot.
That is a large enough bet that shouldn't get you into to much trouble.
If someone re-raises fold the hand.

[ohkanada]

All-in and it doesn't appear to be close. You are 5th and need to move up. The low stack has little or no bearing here.

Ken Poklitar

[ohkanada]

Betting the pot is about 1500. With only 3100 he should go all-in.

Ken Poklitar

[La Brujita]

I push in here as well. A limp would be ok if the blinds weren't so big and if you were not fearful of a reraise.

You have a decent chance to pick up the blinds with the bet all in.

Three times the BB puts a large percentage of your chips in play, also one question I always ask myself is would you fold to a reraise? If the answer is no, usually you are better off going all in than trying to trap. The exception may be with AA or KK when if I am willing to get a better return for more risk I may make the minimum raise or even limp (very rare unless ep in a hyper aggressive game or hu).

[ThaSaltCracka]

pot is 750.

[ohkanada]

To calculate a pot sized raise, you call the 400, then raise what is in the pot which is another 1150. So raising the pot would be 1550 total.

With blinds of 200-400 making it 750 is an illegal bet. Making it 800 is a silly NL bet.

Ken Poklitar

[William]

I have no doubt that this one is a fold or all-in situation.
Nobody is going to call here unless they have you beaten, so you are risking 3130 to get 750. 4 player to act after you. I would fold, the risk seems too big. And I have busted out a million times in situations like this, so I think I do better folding. I think I need at least JJ to move in here.

William

[ThaSaltCracka]

okay how about 1000??? is that still silly?
I think putting all of your chips in there is silly, you are GAMBLING too much. 99 is a marginal hand with 4 players left to act, you are likely to get called by overcards, which makes you a 54% favorite. Not that good. I think an all in is more likely to be called than a medium-to large size bet. This is my thought as to why. A all in bet in a game that he has described seems like a steal, someone is waiting to catch him stealing, so overcards are are likely to call. A smaller bet would seem, IMHO, to be taken a bit more serious, because it would seem like you are trying to get a call. I read in Mike Caro's Book of tells that strong means weak, and weak means strong, now I know this is most definelty not always the case, but I think you see where I am going. Now the only problem with the smaller raise is you could be letting someone in cheap, but if people were paying attention maybe they would think you are trying to draw then in.
Just my thoughts

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

okay how about 1000??? is that still silly?

Yes. It makes it too likely you'll get called.

I think putting all of your chips in there is silly, you are GAMBLING too much.


Putting aside for a moment the fact that with less than 8x BB in his stack he's close to being in a position where he *must* gamble to win, if you think all-in is the wrong move, then fold.

I think an all in is more likely to be called than a medium-to large size bet.

Why would a player with 5000 chips be more likely to call off 60% of his chips than 20%?

[ohkanada]

I agree with Kurn across the board!

Ken Poklitar

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for all the replies so far.

Now, let's see if I can create some *real* argument here... /images/graemlins/wink.gif



ohkanada (Ken Poklitar): "All-in and it doesn't appear to be close".

William: "I think I do better folding".


I know it's not rare that two good poker players have different opinions and styles, but I feel that this is exactly why I thought this 99 to be a tough one. You are two of the most appriciated posters here (Cris, don't flame /images/graemlins/grin.gif) - so how come one of you thinks it's an all-in, and not even a close decision (!), and the other would fold?

Please elaborate, because I'm still thinking about this hand... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

All othres are welcome too, of course. (And no insults!)

PrayingMantis

[ohkanada]

1) With only 8xBB you need to find a hand soon.

2) You also state the blinds are jumping up soon. So you are about to be at 5xBB which is seriously short stacked.

3) 99 is better than average. You are happy to take the blinds/antes and should be willing to do the coin flip vs overcards. If someone calls with a bigger pair, so be it.

4) You are solidly in 5th place. 5th doesn't get anything. You can't just wait for JJ or QQ+.

If the 4 bigger stacks are gambling up against each other then I can see folding the hand.

Ken Poklitar

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Play is very tight, very aggressive, all-in or big raises and re-raises pre-flop, and many folds. Almost no flops. we play like that for a long time. I've made more than my own share of all-in's, few times now, with some pretty marginal hands, because I'm getting nada from the dealer. People are waiting to trap me.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is why I think his all in is more likely to be called by over cards.

I have seen many people make a medium raise trying to suck people in so they get paid off. I would be far more worried about someone making a medium raise than all in on a table that was very aggresive preflop.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I have one other thing to say about this hand. IMO this is the hand that makes or breaks his tourney, I would try to win as much as possible here, if you want to steal the blinds go ahead, I am not arguing neccesarily against that play (pushin all in). I am mearly trying to show another possible way to play this hand. I see the all in having two positives and one negative. One positive you win 750, not neccesarily chump change, number two you double up, in good posistion. The negative of course is you are knocked out.
Slow playing, if thats what this would be, has a some positives and negatives as well. A positive would be you could potentially see a flop for cheap, compared to an all in. Also you will get some action, so you could potentially win more then you would by stealing the blinds.
A negative would be if someone reraises you you may be inclined to fold, thus weaking your stack. However you could also go all in after a raise. A final negative is you are letting your opponents see the flop for cheap.

[PrayingMantis]

Cracka,

In a little more deperate situation I might have gone for the "stop-and-go": bet half my stack PF, and if someone calls - bet the other half on the flop - no matter what flop.

I understand the point you make about "scaring" them with a medium raise, rather than with an all-in. But in this particular game, they will probably raise me all-in, because they will sense weakness. Doing this raise with a big pair might be a good idea. I'm not sure about the 99 though.


PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

if you think you will be re-raised then try the all in, I still think you are going to get called though.