Can you fold this river?

[sfer]

Bicyclekick's post got me thinking about this hand from a couple of weeks ago and whether I should have folded this river knowing with almost 100% certainty I'm beat.

Live game. I'm MP and dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I limp, CO who is a tight, straightforward, solid player raises. BB comes along, I call.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif, J /images/graemlins/heart.gif. About as good as it gets for me. BB checks, I bet, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn: blank, non- /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet, CO raises, I 3-bet, CO calls. I'm almost certain CO has a set based on his prior play. He would not have raised A10 PF, nor any combination of completed flush cards out there.

River: K. Uh-oh. I'm sure I've been outdrawn. I check, he bets, I make a crying call and he shows jacks full of kings.

I was confident in my read but unable to fold the river. Should I have?

[Clarkmeister]

Well, if you are truly 100% certain you are beat, of course you fold.

[sfer]

That's the thing, isn't it? There's always that slight doubt. If I just had top pair, I fold no problem, but because I had a straight I paid him off even though both hands were equally likely to be losers in my mind.

But after the hand I felt like I threw away a bet needlessly. I guess what I want to find out is how many more experience players will ignore their read because they could be wrong?

[Saborion]

Well the pot was pretty big. If you have any doubt, call. Don't need to be correct that often for that to happen. He might as well have had AK with the A of hearts? Or several other possible hands.

[Trix]

I think there is a pretty good chance that he doesnt have A /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Saborion]

Hmm... you might be right. But you'll never know for sure!
Saw a fella that got had his royal broken by 5 aces the other day! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sfer]

Like Trix pointed out, I had the nut flush draw. But I think you're right, with even the slightest doubt, I have to call. Of course, it seems like a larger pot induces more doubt.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Fold preflop.

If you really are 100% sure than go ahead and fold. But there was obviously enough doubt in your mind, so you should call.

Often times we're faced with these hands where we "know" we're beat, but call anyways for sanity purposes.

[Michael Davis]

"almost 100% certainty I'm beat."

"I was confident in my read but unable to fold the river. Should I have?"

Yes.

-Michael

[sfer]

Dude, where did this come from? I guess everyone posts a hand like this sometime.