This is GuyOnTilt; This is GuyOnTilt being a wuss : AA in MP

[GuyOnTilt]

This hand is very similar to one I played months ago at a live 4/8 table. I think I may have posted that one in the SS forum, but I'm not sure and don't feel like looking it up and finding out.

Anyways, I'm playing the usual 15/30 on Empire and the table has a full ten sitting. BB is a calling station all the way to the river, where he very often folds after calling bets cold on the flop and/or turn. I checked through once against him and found he was chasing a bare king on a J9774 board when I held A9. The EP player in this hand is regular at the 15 game. He's relatively tight (~19% VP$IP), but a little under average on the aggression (~5% PFR). He's not a great postflop player either.

Anyways, I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 off the Button. EP open-raises and I 3-bet. BB calls, EP caps, I call, BB calls. 3 to the flop for 12 SB's.

Flop comes: Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to me and I bet. BB calls, EP calls. 7.5 BB's to the turn.

Turn comes: 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif[Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

Checked to me and I check it through.

River comes: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif[5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

BB checks, EP bets, I call, BB folds.

I usually don't post AA hands 'cause most of them aren't all that interesting, but I felt this one deserved some thought.

Any and all comments are appreciated.

GoT

[Eric P]

I hate this situation, cause it's so easy to have you cracked on the flop. On the turn i probably check it through becuase i fear the check-raise. The river is a payoff i don't think you can fold here at all. The only debate i assume is the turn, and I really don't think you are losing much long term checking, but maybe that's why i'm losing huh?

[cepstrum]

hi got -

i would certainly not check the turn in the situation you describe. the pot is not large anough for you to chase a king or ace if you are already beaten, especially since some of the ways you are beaten involve other players having those cards. at the same time, you cannot afford to give free cards to straight or flush draws - and that includes a hand like kk or kq.

so bet the turn, and you can almost certainly fold to a check-raise. the turn card probably didn't helped anyone, and i don't think you need to worry about a semibluff raise from a hand like kq or a flush draw, esp because the ac and qc are accounted for.

if you just get called after betting the turn, be inclined to check behind if checked to. be disinclined to overcall, and be cautious about calling a bet from the bb even if the other guy folds. but certainly call a bet from the guy in the middle. if you let the turn go through, of course you should call a bet.

good luck

cepstrum

[Philuva]

I would bet the turn, then maybe check behind on the river if a bad scare card comes.

You can probably safely fold if check-raised on the turn.

I would rather the bets get in there on the turn, rather than the river.

[gaylord focker]

Cepstrum is right on in his post. You can't even consider checking the turn, you have to close your eyes and bet. If you are checked to on the river, and nothing too ugly falls, you have to bet again. But in this situation, I think calling is right and I dont think its close. Obviously you arnt considering laying down, and you really can't raise one pair on the river with three paints out there, even though his play on the earlier streets seems a bit strange and passive.

[rharless]

Actually I think you played it ok. I think with that action and that board, after the flop you'd really like to go to showdown, but you'd really like for it to be el cheapo.

What bothers me is that each hand I think of for EP, I wonder, how can he only check-call the flop with BB being such a donator? For such a tight player to cap against you three-betting (we'll assume he is aware enough to "respect" your 3-bets), I will have to assume AA-QQ/AK. If he has KK -- well ok, I can see how he'd be scared of the board if he's putting you on "normal 3-betting hands", but with BB in, I would think he'd have to bet his draw+possible winner. If he has QQ, it's just sad to lose so many bets. Ditto with AK.

[nykenny]

I would bet the turn, then maybe check behind on the river if a bad scare card comes.

good advice.

You can probably safely fold if check-raised on the turn.

i wouldn't fold to a C/R here because K makes you broadway on the river. And C/R might not necessarily be AK, or K9 or 89 against which you have 3, 3, and 4 outs respectively. against any 2 pair, you have more outs.

I would rather the bets get in there on the turn, rather than the river.

agree again.

Kenny

[Joe Tall]

Bet the turn. Call a check-raise getting 11 or so to a gutshot that is at worse a chop.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[cepstrum]

joe -

i wouldn't be so quick to call a check-raise.

if you're calling to chop, you have only 3 outs to half the pot, so you're getting 6.5-1 on a 14-1 shot. and you may have fewer than 3 outs because of the flush draw. maybe the bb holds 98, but that case ain't great either - you're getting the full 11-1, but now it's even more likely that the early player is holding some of your outs.

things look better if you are against a set, as you look to have 2 aces and 4 kings for 5-1. but you may have as few as 4 outs, and frankly i don't think a set is likely. this is because utg is extremely likely to have kk, aa, or aks. he's not capping out of position with less than that very often. the calling station bb probably won't check-raise a set on the turn anyway; he'd probably have done something on the flop or will remain silent until the river. so while getting check-raised by a set here isn't a bad situation, it's not likely.

against 2 pair, it's not so bad either, as you can draw out with a, k, t, or 5, but see previous comments about some of these outs not being good. but again, this is just not likely. the tight but under-aggressive ep probably does not have qj, jt, or qt, and the calling station bb almost certainly will not raise this scary board with just 2 pair.

_maybe_ the early player will check-raise you with kings and the king of flush. but he sees the board too, and unless he can put you on exactly aces - and he can't - then he's probably not going to do it.

so it looks like when you face a check-raise here, it is highly likely that you are a big money dog, somewhat unlikely that you are a tiny money favorite, and very unlikely that you have a nice edge. not good.

if you are going to call the check-raise for your outs in this spot, it's far better imo to check behind, take your shot at the outs, and call a bet on the river. but we've already established that giving a free card is no good, so looks like bet-and-fold to me.

good luck

cepstrum

[GuyOnTilt]

i wouldn't fold to a C/R here because K makes you broadway on the river. And C/R might not necessarily be AK, or K9 or 89 against which you have 3, 3, and 4 outs respectively. against any 2 pair, you have more outs.

That's exactly why I DIDN'T want to bet the turn. If I could easily fold to a check-raise, then I would've bet away, but because I would want to call a check-raise, especially if the BB was sticking around too, I didn't like the thought of betting, and then calling a river blank as well.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

Bet the turn. Call a check-raise getting 11 or so to a gutshot that is at worse a chop.

Then what do I do if the river is a blank and I'm bet into??

GoT

[Trix]

I dont see any hands better than yours that wouldnt raise you on the flop to protect the hand(Actually I was thinking AcKc might, but since you hold the Ac, then...), so I would bet turn when the blank came.
Wouldnt straights raise to protect their hands from gutshots, Flushes and trips becoming boats? Trips to protect from gutshots, flushes and higher trips in case you held an overpair. 2 pairs even for more reasons.
I´m a low limit player, so if this doesnt make any sense, then you know why /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[JayKon]

There is no way I'm checking the turn! Maybe I lose 3 extra big bets, but more likely I'm goint to win 2-4 extra big bets. Unless someone tells me otherwise (check-raise) I'm going to assume no more than a draw, or TP.

Ya, you played it like a wuss, just like you said.