An exercise in pattern maps : 8-3 sequence match

[Ulysses]

Apparently someone had a faster version of a pattern mapper than mine operating. At least it was much faster in recognizing 8-3 matches. These are actual Party hand histories from tonight that you can request and verify. Note the times of the first and second hand and then my third hand (when my pattern map identified the 8-3 sequence). Note to all my bidders - I have identified the error (it was actually pointed out by one of the responders in the other thread) and my pattern maps are now faster than the ones these players were using.

Hand 1

***** Hand History for Game 359901772 *****
10/20 TexasHTGameTable (Limit) - Wed Jan 28 23:11:24 EST 2004
Table Carnations (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: GrandMal ( $292)
Seat 2: akshawnd ( $1936)
Seat 4: bordos ( $271)
Seat 5: Nolwenn ( $1286)
Seat 6: jmyara ( $340)
akshawnd posts small blind (5)
bordos posts big blind (10)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to akshawnd [ Ac, As ]
Nolwenn folds.
jmyara calls (10)
GrandMal raises (20) to 20
akshawnd raises (25) to 30
bordos calls (20)
jmyara calls (20)
GrandMal raises (20) to 40
akshawnd calls (10)
bordos calls (10)
jmyara calls (10)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3d, Qh, 8s ]
akshawnd checks.
bordos checks.
jmyara checks.
GrandMal checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8h ]
akshawnd bets (20)
bordos calls (20)
jmyara raises (40) to 40
GrandMal folds.
akshawnd raises (40) to 60
bordos folds.
jmyara raises (40) to 80
akshawnd calls (20)
** Dealing River ** : [ Qs ]
akshawnd checks.
jmyara bets (20)
akshawnd calls (20)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $378 | Rake: $2
Board: [ 3d Qh 8s 8h Qs ]
GrandMal balance $252, lost $40 (folded)
akshawnd balance $1796, lost $140 [ Ac As ] [ two pairs, aces and queens -- Ac,As,Qh,Qs,8s ]
bordos balance $211, lost $60 (folded)
Nolwenn balance $1286, didn't bet (folded)
jmyara balance $578, bet $140, collected $378, net +$238 [ 3s 8d ] [ a full house, Eights full of queens -- Qh,Qs,8d,8s,8h ]

Hand 2

***** Hand History for Game 359912843 *****
pino94 has left the table.
10/20 TexasHTGameTable (Limit) - Wed Jan 28 23:15:59 EST 2004
Table Card Room Table 4041 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: mlm3rd ( $119)
Seat 2: Drass ( $282)
Seat 3: akshawnd ( $2166.50)
Seat 5: Playa1239 ( $405.50)
Seat 6: bigalpo ( $768)
akshawnd posts small blind (5)
Playa1239 posts big blind (10)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to akshawnd [ Kh, Kc ]
bigalpo calls (10)
mlm3rd calls (10)
Drass folds.
akshawnd raises (15) to 20
Playa1239 calls (10)
bigalpo calls (10)
mlm3rd calls (10)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3c, 3s, 8d ]
akshawnd bets (10)
Playa1239 calls (10)
bigalpo calls (10)
mlm3rd calls (10)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2s ]
akshawnd checks.
Playa1239 checks.
bigalpo bets (20)
mlm3rd calls (20)
akshawnd raises (40) to 40
Playa1239 folds.
bigalpo calls (20)
mlm3rd calls (20)
** Dealing River ** : [ 6c ]
akshawnd bets (20)
bigalpo folds.
mlm3rd raises (40) to 40
akshawnd raises (40) to 60
mlm3rd calls (9)
mlm3rd calls all-In.
Creating Main Pot with $336 with mlm3rd
** Summary **
Main Pot: $336 | Side Pot 1: $11 | Rake: $2
Board: [ 3c 3s 8d 2s 6c ]
mlm3rd balance $336, bet $119, collected $336, net +$217 [ 8h 3h ] [ a full house, Threes full of eights -- 8h,8d,3h,3c,3s ]
Drass balance $282, didn't bet (folded)
akshawnd balance $2047.50, bet $130, collected $11, lost -$119 [ Kh Kc ] [ two pairs, kings and threes -- Kh,Kc,8d,3c,3s ]
Playa1239 balance $375.50, lost $30 (folded)
bigalpo balance $698, lost $70 (folded)

Hand 3

***** Hand History for Game 359997113 *****
10/20 TexasHTGameTable (Limit) - Wed Jan 28 23:52:51 EST 2004
Table Card Room Table 4041 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: feb1st2004 ( $501)
Seat 2: Drass ( $147)
Seat 3: akshawnd ( $1917.50)
Seat 4: squashmalevn ( $417)
Seat 5: Playa1239 ( $565.50)
Seat 6: bigalpo ( $1154)
akshawnd posts small blind (5)
squashmalevn posts big blind (10)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to akshawnd [ 3s, 8h ]
Playa1239 calls (10)
bigalpo calls (10)
feb1st2004 folds.
Drass calls (10)
akshawnd calls (5)
squashmalevn checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3d, 5d, 6s ]
akshawnd checks.
squashmalevn checks.
Playa1239 checks.
bigalpo bets (10)
Drass folds.
akshawnd raises (20) to 20
squashmalevn folds.
Playa1239 folds.
bigalpo calls (10)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 7s ]
akshawnd bets (20)
bigalpo calls (20)
** Dealing River ** : [ 7d ]
akshawnd bets (20)
bigalpo calls (20)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $168 | Rake: $2
Board: [ 3d 5d 6s 7s 7d ]
feb1st2004 balance $501, didn't bet (folded)
Drass balance $137, lost $10 (folded)
akshawnd balance $2015.50, bet $70, collected $168, net +$98 [ 3s 8h ] [ two pairs, sevens and threes -- 8h,7s,7d,3s,3d ]
squashmalevn balance $407, lost $10 (folded)
Playa1239 balance $555.50, lost $10 (folded)
bigalpo balance $1084, lost $70 [ 9s Ac ] [ a pair of sevens -- Ac,9s,7s,7d,6s ]

[eugeneel]

I've always wondered who you were on 2+2! It was always fun playing with you.

[Lori]

To all prospective bidders.

Please note that although Ulysses has a system for and away the best, there is NO WAY that you could claim a great success rate for predicting flops.

This is a sad attempt to increase the bid size, the hand number is important to pinpointing the exact pattern that will be coming, as is the flop.

It is possible that Ulysses has some reasonable flop hits, but I wouldn't consider them enough to merit extra payment.

Take your turns and rivers, but don't rely on a pattern map for flops, it is just too close to the borderline.

Lori

[Vehn]

Wait - I'm confused. I thought your pattern map was only useful in determining the turn and river cards after the flop has come out. Therefore, I would think its unlikely that 8-3 would be a good hand to play (but obviously you should play ~50% of your hands). Somehow, I doubt your opponents in hand 1 & 2 were using a pattern map - or at least, they aren't very good at it. Obviously your small blind play in hand #3 is correct as you're getting excellent pot odds to hit the flop/turn/river (flurver?), but again I think as the turn/river do not improve you and likely do not improve your opponent, its unlikely that the hand was played optimally, unless, of course, your opponent was merely a common idiot.

Or do I have it all wrong?

[BigEndian]

You guys keep at this and party is going to have to make an official post on their website contesting this and marking your names down in Vinny's black book. You'll be sleping wit da fishes.

- Jim

[Ulysses]

It's really complicated. I doubt you would understand.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
It's really complicated. I doubt you would understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

[BradleyT]

What is your optimal flop % seen with your mapper?

What do you do when you flop two pair but know the third flush card is going to come on the turn?

[Ed Miller]

What is your optimal flop % seen with your mapper?

Dude, don't expect Ulysses to be able to answer questions like this. He doesn't actually know how to play poker. But you should be able to figure it out... just calculate your preflop expectation given than you will always play perfectly from the flop on. Then drop each hand's value by a "fudge factor" that represents the occasional mistakes made by the algorithm. Let's call that FU. Merge your calculations and FU.

Hopefully you know how to do this. We learned this procedure in a course called "The Statistics of Imperfect and Incomplete Information" back in my days at CGNU. If you don't know how to do it, just google the course name and CGNU. You should find recent course notes available.

[Schneids]

Two hands, and I am a believer. I will let the others elaborate on why the pattern mapper I use works so well, and maybe soon I will reveal who sold me their wonderful work-in-progress at a DISCOUNTED price [assuming I help them out with some beta-testing].

Basically guys, definitely get a good one of these as soon as you can, it practically turns the game into teeball!!!!!!:

2/4 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (LIMIT)
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: dexterooo ( $100)
Seat 2: gabrielman ( $40)
Seat 3: damaged ( $109)
Seat 4: justinfun ( $166.50)
Seat 5: steelredhawk ( $19)
Seat 6: Papa_WarBuck ( $111)
Seat 7: hacker59 ( $77)
Seat 8: keebs ( $100)
Seat 9: Anchower ( $81)
Seat 10: Predator77 ( $93.50)
Papa_WarBuck posts small blind (1)
hacker59 posts big blind (2)
dexterooo posts big blind (2)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Papa_WarBuck [ Jh, 4h ]
Anchower raises (4) to 4
Predator77 folds.
dexterooo calls (2)
gabrielman folds.
damaged folds.
justinfun did not respond in time.
justinfun folds.
steelredhawk folds.
Papa_WarBuck calls (3)
hacker59 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Kh, 9h, 6h ]
Papa_WarBuck bets (2)
Anchower calls (2)
dexterooo raises (4) to 4
Papa_WarBuck calls (2)
Anchower calls (2)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8c ]
Papa_WarBuck bets (4)
Anchower folds.
dexterooo raises (8) to 8
Papa_WarBuck raises (8) to 12
dexterooo calls (4)
** Dealing River ** : [ Ks ]
Papa_WarBuck bets (4)
dexterooo calls (4)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $55.50 | Rake: $2.50
Board: [ Kh 9h 6h 8c Ks ]
dexterooo balance $80, lost $24 [ 3d 3s ] [ two pairs, kings and threes -- Kh,Ks,9h,3d,3s ]
gabrielman balance $40, didn't bet (folded)
damaged balance $109, didn't bet (folded)
justinfun balance $166.50, didn't bet (folded)
steelredhawk balance $19, didn't bet (folded)
Papa_WarBuck balance $138.50, bet $24, collected $55.50, net +$31.50 [ Jh 4h ] [ a flush, king high -- Kh,Jh,9h,6h,4h ]
hacker59 balance $75, lost $2 (folded)
keebs balance $100, sits out
Anchower balance $73, lost $8 (folded)
Predator77 balance $93.50, didn't bet (folded)



2/4 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (LIMIT)
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: CommonMan ( $153)
Seat 2: The_Eggman ( $110.50)
Seat 3: Papa_WarBuck ( $121)
Seat 5: threejent ( $12)
Seat 7: TABPMGC ( $380.50)
Seat 9: cckid ( $159.50)
threejent posts small blind (1)
TABPMGC posts big blind (2)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Papa_WarBuck [ Qh, 7h ]
cckid raises (4) to 4
CommonMan folds.
The_Eggman folds.
Papa_WarBuck calls (4)
threejent folds.
TABPMGC calls (2)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Kh, 6c, 4h ]
TABPMGC checks.
cckid checks.
Papa_WarBuck bets (2)
TABPMGC folds.
cckid calls (2)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Th ]
cckid checks.
Papa_WarBuck bets (4)
cckid calls (4)
** Dealing River ** : [ 4s ]
cckid checks.
Papa_WarBuck bets (4)
cckid calls (4)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $31.50 | Rake: $1.50
Board: [ Kh 6c 4h Th 4s ]
CommonMan balance $153, didn't bet (folded)
The_Eggman balance $110.50, didn't bet (folded)
Papa_WarBuck balance $138.50, bet $14, collected $31.50, net +$17.50 [ Qh 7h ] [ a flush, king high -- Kh,Qh,Th,7h,4h ]
threejent balance $11, lost $1 (folded)
TABPMGC balance $376.50, lost $4 (folded)
cckid balance $145.50, lost $14 [ 5d As ] [ a pair of fours -- As,Kh,Th,4h,4s ]

[BreakEvenPlayer]

You aren't tired yet?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
You aren't tired yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just wanted an excuse to post those two ridiculous beats.

[Stagemusic]

[ QUOTE ]
Merge your calculations and FU.



[/ QUOTE ]

Kong dammit, I just spent 5 minutes cleaning coffee off my monitor and keyboard. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bigpooch]

David Sklansky gave a hint about it when he showed that the
hand 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif does beat A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif .

[Vehn]

You know, I'm starting to get the feeling that perhaps this is all some elaborate joke.

[bigpooch]

It's much more sinister than that. Some operatives think
this forum is used to exchange some sensitive information.
A reliable mole has just leaked that "pattern map" is almost
as important as "Big Wedding" was!