3-6 Hand Reading Exercise

In a very sweet $3-6 HE game last night at West Edmonton Mall. Game is populated mostly by young guys seeing virtually every flop, with a fair amount of pre-flop raising. I'm getting killed in the game, but that is not the point of this post! LOL


My buddy Stewie is in the #9 seat in this 10-handed game, and I am at the other end of the table in the #2 seat. In this particular hand, Stewie made a play, I made a (somewhat) accurate hand read, and I wanted to share the hand for comments and analysis.


Regular readers will know that Stewie is a TOM, a (usually) very conservative, somewhat unimaginative LL player who generally does well in the LL games based soley on superior starting hand requirements alone compared to the rest of his regular afternoon crew. Now, in this game, he is playing with a bunch of kids who don't know him too well. Stew limps in UTG, some other limpers around to this young guy who has played EVERY hand for over 4 hours. No bad hands, just bad flops mantra, I guess. I had mucked, but this guy raised. SB folded, but the BB and all the other pre-flop limpers called. Six players take the flop of 9h-6s-5s.


BB bets out. Stewie raises. One cold caller, and the pre-flop raiser cold calls as well. BB 3-bets. Stewie and the other two players also call the 3-bet.


Turn is a blank, an offsuit deuce. BB bets out , as expected given his 3-bet on the flop. Stewie pops it to $12! Now, I am watching this hand with interest from the other end of the table wondering what my bud could have with THAT flop! One of the limpers folded, but the pre-flop raiser(PFR) called, and the BB only calls.


River card is the Tc. BB checks, Stewie bets, the PFR calls, and the BB folds. What is Stewie's most likely hand?


My thoughts on the hand, and what actually happened, below. No peeking!

Well, when Stew raised on this flop, my immediate reaction was that he had flopped a set. He MIGHT have had something like 87s, but he would be much more likely to have limped in pre-flop with a middle pair like 99 or 66 than with 87s. The thought of him playing 87o UTG never entered the darkest corner of my mind. On over pair was a possibility but he would have certainly raised with JJ thru AA. Lesser candidates would be something like KsJs, but he knows that in that situation, he would call the BB's flop bet to keep enough people in to give him a better price for his flush draw. So, I'm thinking set.


Now, after the flop 3-bet, when the BB bets out and Stewie raises on the turn, I begin to wonder! Did he play 87s up front? Nawwwwww, no way, I'm thinking. He is too risk averse to play that speculative holding UTG. I am even MORE convinced that he's flopped something like a set of 9's, and he had waited until the turn to lower the boom, make it more costly for the two other limpers in the hand to suck out on him, and even if he gets 3-bet again by the BB, which would presumably almost guarantee a flopped str8 from there, he has 10 outs for the shack.


Hmmmmmm, nice play, Stewie, I'm thinking. Wait until the turn, double the price, see if a scare card comes on the turn, nice going! You're learning!


Now on the river, after the PFR calls and the BB folds, Stewie turns over his expected set. Of TEN'S!!! He made this turn raise with the ThTd! At the table, I just about fell out of my seat! Now, others may disagree, but I think he overplayed the hand and got lucky with hitting the river. The PFR mucked his hand, so I never did see what he held, but I think it was obvious he had an overpair. The BB said after the hand that he had folded two-pair plus a spade draw. Now that would be a great laydown at the river with the size of this pot, but he would have had to have held something like Ts9s, or possibly the 9s2s. Either holding would be consistent with his betting.


So, group, what do you think of Stewie's turn raise? Super Play, or Super Magoo? Another MGD is riding on this one, so don't hold back!

I always put Stew on AA.


In reality, I'd guess he's got a set and decided (incorrectly) to slowplay it.

My guess is going to be the 78s most likely spades giving stewie the nut straight on the flop and and open ended draw to a straight flush. Limping in under the gun against a field of people who'll limp in with trash sounds like he'll get enough callers.

I was thinking set too given your description of him as a TOM.


In any event, I think he played the hand perfectly with TT.


A preflop limp is generally preferable to a raise in this type of game with TT.


The flop raise is fine (although he could possibly wait until the turn to raise or fold on the theory that the flop raise is not going to limit the field anyway). When the PFR just coldcalls, I would put him on a hand that's worse than TT i.e. this is a chap who you say has played every hand for 4 hours. Plus, he did not 3 bet.


When bb 3 bets the flop, I like hero's smoothcall (I gather he wanted to lower the boom on the turn if a good card came off).


I obviously like his raise on the turn given what I have said so far.


In short, I think he played it perfect.

First, his raise on the flop seems a raise for protection, with the purpose of getting people out. On the other hand, since limpers virtually play every hand he could also play a big hand fast, since the board is coordinated and flushed. So A9s (As9s would be nice ;-)), (77, 88), 99, TT, JJ (would he play 55, 66 upfront?).


From your description he has (very) tight preflop standards so I rule out 87, 66, 55.


His turn-raise indicates a (very) strong hand. I think 99, TT, JJ are most likely. His raise puts good presure on the preflop raiser.


Since Stewie is very conservative he has to be worried about the preflop raiser cold calling the whole way. His bets surely means for value on the river.


I gues 99 or TT.


Regards

It seems that Stewie must have either flopped a set, or limped with As9s. The set seems like the most likely candidate at first glance, but As9s would make some sense, but not as much, especially not considering he bet the river too. Stewie may have flopped a straight, IF he would play 87s UTG. But from your description of him, I can't really put him on THAT hand. No, Stewie flopped a set, I am proclaiming that to be what happened. Unless I find out that I was wrong, then I'll have to be chastized and cast out. We'll cross THAT bridge when we get there. Anyway, the PRF almost certainly has an overpair to have taken all that heat, unless he has AsTs and now has to make a crying call on the river because he paired. The BB appears to have been overplaying a draw, perhaps something like two spades with a gutshot.

OK, OK, so I WAS WRONG, now you can all CHASTIZE me and CAST ME OUT. So Stewie's not quite the rock of Gibraltar I thought he was. He limped with pocket tens (it's a borderline raise, especially in a loose game), then (correctly, IMO) raised the flop. I don't mind his NOT capping when he gets three-bet here, he's NOT going to get anyone to fold who already called two cold. I think his decision to wait till the turn to raise again was in the category of Super-Genius, not Super-Magoo.


So I now have to proclaim Stewie a Super-Genius. Way to go Stewie!


Dave in Cali

Preflop meant okay but not a great hand, then the raise came back to him. Well the team is gambling, and he wouldn't be too out of line to call the raise. Flop was interesting.After the flop, I would him credit for 87s, as he would know he would have enough callers to make it worth while and a great hand! His position is not as important in a loose game coming in with a flush draw if you feel enough players will play with you. Then if you are going to come in with a flush draw, it may as well have straight possibilities. There are worse choices. 87s would be hit very well indeed.


I don't think he had a choice with that board except to raise post flop. He had to know where he was at. The 2 was a re-enforcing card, and the ten couldn't hurt him if he had 87s. The other players obviously didn't have hands to be proud of as they were there to have fun and gamboole and they would have let them know if they made a hand.


I think it is one of the trashed HE authors who wrote to subtract 70 from another players age, and use that number to determine the percentage that they are bluffing? He was serious they were being themselves. LOL


How did I do?