AA -- one more

PP .5/1, I'm in the SB and I'm dealt AcAh. Haven't been on the table long, but definately no tight aggressive players.


EP2 limps as well as MP1, MP2, and LP. I raise. BB and rest call, with 6 players and 6 BB in the pot.


Flop is 7c 3c 2s. Great stuff. Flush draw and a low straight draw. Most likely some limpers on the lower end of the straight with a K-little one. I bet out. BB folds and the rest call. 8.5 BB in the pot.


Turn is 8h. Great again. More carrots for that straight, and flush is still dangling. I bet out. EP1 folds. MP1 raises and the rest call to me. Now I'm thinking why has this guy raised. Trips, Two pair, or A8. Given the type of players I decide he's trying to get the pot right there and scare me out with A8. So, I re-raise. MP1 caps. MP2, MP3 and LP Call.


After being re-raised I figure I'm way behind and need the third ace. I'm up against trips or two pair. But what the heck are the other players calling with? I decided to call the cap because there are too many BB in the pot. Didn't to perfect figuring then but now that I count it's 24.5 BB in the pot -- about the right odds to call to draw the third ace.


River is 9c. I check, MP1 checks, and what do you know the MP2 bets out. Everyone calls.


On an earlier thread I stressed the need to toss in Aces when you know you're beat. But I felt I was getting the right odds on the turn. On the river, I thought I had to call 1 bet to 29 bets just in case. I've seen wackier things on LL at PP.


Results to follow.

Well what do you know. I was beat -- yes AA does get beat.


MP1 shows 7s 8s and takes the pot. Yikes, no trips! Actually had some outs if the 9 or 3 on the board paired.


MP2 shows 8d 2d for a lower two pair made on the turn. I can see calling the first raise but the second cold call of two bets?


LP show 7d 6d for a one pair with no flush draw.


Now I'm thinking there may be some pot building going on. What the heck is the LP staying in with? Why would he show his cards?


Thoughts?


Morale to the story. I put this loss behind me. Really tightened up, especially post flop. And I bet like crazy when I knew I was ahead. Guess what -- people calling with bottom pairs a regular occurance. An hour later I was up 15 BB and left the table. Why leave when I'm winning -- it's a motto of mine. Much prefer to leave when I'm up and I didn't like the flow.

MP1 most likely has you beat making your crying call of MP2 utterly hopeless. Without a doubt in this big pot if you think calling MP2 is reasonable (risking one bet to win the pot) then you should have RAISED (risked one more bet to win the pot) to knock out MP2 who probably has you beat.


Imagine if MP2 had just one pair and you lost to the over-call?


But you had a servious lapse in thinking here. You concuded (incorrectly) that you needed a third Ace to win and concluded (correctly) that you had the right odds to call the turn cap. But then you got a BAD card AND someone ELSE bet. Surely you no longer have the right odds to call the river.


No, you should NOT wait until you are reasonably *sure* you have the best hand before betting. If you expect 4 calls then you are making money if you win more often than one time in 5, and this translates to (I guess) you need only (about) a 1/5 confidence you have the best hand before its worth betting: better hands usually have more outs then lesser hands.


- Louie