4-8 hand: JTs on the button

I had a good day today at Mandalay Bay on the Vegas Strip playing 4-8 Hold'em (with $1 and $2 blinds). But it was also strange. In five hours of play I didn't raise pre-flop even once. I didn't get a single pocket pair bigger than 88. My best hand was AKs but I chose not to 3-bet it out of the big blind since I'd be out of position. Still, I walked away with 13.5 big bets in those five hours.


One of my more profitable hands was JTs on the button but I thought I might actually being drawing almost-dead on the flop even though it looked great for me on the surface.


The hand:


UTG (loose) limps, UTG2 (decent) limps, MP (good)limps, LP (new and unknown) limps and I decide to limp with JdTd. With four limpers ahead of me, I considered raising to drive out the blinds in case they've got a random overcards to my hand. Truthfully, I'm just not comfortable raising with JTs from any position. Despite it's great drawing potential, it seems like a hand that still needs to hit the flop very well to win. Should I be raising with it in this situation? Am I playing JTs a little wimpy?


The blinds come along and 7 players see the flop.


The flop is: Js,8d,4d


Top pair and four-flush! Whoo-hoo! I'm salivating at the opportunity to bet/raise when it gets to me.


Both blinds and UTG check. UTG2 bets, MP folds and then the LP raises.


A bet and raise before it even gets to me? I hesitated so that I could put the bettor and raiser on hands. The quick assessment I made was that one of them had a big J and the other had a four-flush. Could I actually be drawing almost-dead here? Normally, should I expect to be up against hands like (1) AJ (or KJ or QJ) and (2)Adxd (or Kdxd) so that my top pair and flush draw are both worthless? Can folding here actually be the correct play for long-term EV purposes?


Well, if folding is correct, don't expect me to do it. I'm not that good. Unsure of where I stood, I only called. The blinds folded. UTG called. UTG2 then made it 3-bets and everybody called.


The turn is: Js,8d,4d,9c


The 9c gives me an open-ended straight draw to boot so I'm not going anywhere.


Everybody checks to me! What? I'm more confused than ever and think I'm probably getting check-raised. Screw it. I bet.


UTG folds. UTG2 and LP call. No check-raise? What have they got?


The river is: Js,8d,4d,9c,Qh


Now that's a card I wanted to see! Both players check to me and I bet. UTG2 folds and MP shakes his head and decides to call me down.


My stiff T for the straight is good enough. LP showed his cards (I never do this anymore). He had 88 and flopped a set. I never found out what UTG2 had.


I stacked chips for thirty seconds.


Alright, the river bet is obviously correct. On the turn, a bet seems correct even if I suspect I'm behind and being check-raised since I've got so many outs. Maybe, my Js are good sometimes.


But what about the flop? I was really concerned about being up aginst both AJ and Axs and having practically no chance of winning the pot (unless I get runner-runner straight cards..he he). Again, can folding on the flop actually be the correct play for long-term EV purposes?


Hypothetically, if the turn was a total blank and there was more heavy betting in front of me should I continue on?


My posts are too damn long.

I think you played it fine. I don't generally raise with J10s unless stealing the blinds for the same reason as you. Occasionally I will in this spot to vary my play. It does 2 things. Builds a nice pot with a hand that plays well multi-way, and creates deception on this hand and hands in the future. As your raises are not as predictable.


I don't think there will be many times, if ever, when it would be correct to fold this hand in limit holdem, on that flop. The turn I like your bet. Its checked to you with top pair, open-end straight, and flush draw. Pretty big draw! You may be behind but you have many outs as you point out giving you a nice overlay to make a bet worthwhile. And there may be times when your good on the turn anyway. For both these reasons I like the bet on the turn. If you knew for sure there was big hand out like a set, and knew you would get check raised I would check. As a hand like this limits a decent amount of your outs. But there is no indication anybody has this big a hand. Because set man plays his hand horribly. River is an obvious bet.


Nice hand!

Dynasty,


Well played.


Later,

CJ


P.S. - I might have raised with J-10 suited on button with a few more callers. In this situation calling is fine.

You can fold if you SEE both better hands. Otherwise be willing to jam although flat calling certainly is not "wrong". Betting the turn is routine since you CAN realistically get a better Jack to fold and you can realistically have the better hand right now, and of course you have lots of outs. How bad can it be if you get two calls with your 14 or so outs?


Even the most conservative players ..err.. especially the most conservative players need to play these combination hands assertively even when its marginally unprofitable.


Hard to believe the set checked and called on the turn.


- Louie

After posting this hand, I walked to the supermarket and was able to spend the time thinking more deeply about the position I was in on the flop. I've concluded that I was a MASSIVE dog on the flop and that folding was the correct play despite what appears to be a great flop for me.


As a reminder, I'm on the button holding JdTd and...


The flop is: Js,8d,4d


There is a bet and raise before the action gets to me. The original bettor then 3-bets it after I call the two bets.


Let's assume both players are respectable players and aren't betting/raising with garbage (pair of 4s). What type of hands can we put the bettor and raiser on?


Type 1 hand: A set. While a set of Js is less likely since there was no pre-flop raise, a set of 8s or 4s is a possibility.


Type 2 hand: A big J. I would definitely both bet and raise with AJ, KJ and QJ.


Type 3 hand: Two pair. Js and 8s seems most likely.


Type 4 hand: A quality flush draw. By "quality" I mean either Ace-high or King-high so that you can be confident that if the flush card comes you've got the best hand with an unpaired board.


Type 5 hand: A quality straight draw. This can only be T9 for an open-ended straight. With two diamonds on the board, though, it's tough to push this hand too hard. It's not as likely a holding for either player.


Are there any other reasonable hands which could be bet, 2-bet, and 3-bet here?


So here's why I think I should have folded on the flop. I put Player A on a Type 1, 2, or 3 hand which means I can only beat him by hitting my flush card. But, I put Player B on a Type 4 hand so if the flush card comes, he's got me beat. I'm behind and drawing almost dead.


My only hopes are (1) my reads are wrong and I've got my opponents on the wrong hands and (2) I catch two running cards to make a straight, Js full of Ts, or Ts full of Js. Not very promising.


When the action gets to me on the flop, the pot is relatively small. Based on the flop action, it seems likely that both the turn and river are going to be expensive too. So why the hell am I staying in this hand? What am I reasonably hoping to hit on the turn and river?


I definitely believe folding on the flop is best.


Do you think I can give the money back?

Well, obviously, by the fundamental theorem, you made a mistake on the flop. Had you known for certain that one player had flopped a set, and the other (presumably) had Axd or Kxd, you should have folded.


That said, the main lesson I get from this hand is "How not to play a set against a draw-type board." What the heck was LP thinking when he checked on the turn? Unless he specifically put you on QT, he needed to charge you and the probable flush draw for the river card. (And if this hand is typical of his play, I doubt that he's the type to think too much about his opponent's cards. He probably just whines about how people are always sucking out on him.)


In your situation, with what seems to be a clear draw, I would have gladly taken the free card and not bet the turn. (Betting is likewise a mistake if you had known their cards; you were already behind -- and they even had more outs than you.) Glad it worked out for you. You profited off LP's mistake. That's the key to winning in low-limit.


As an aside, how is Mandalay's poker room? I played there back in April and again in May, and I liked it a lot. Clean, relatively fishy players (at least on weekends/nights), not too much smoke... Have the smokers moved in since Mirage/Bellagio went non-smoking? I'm planning to be out in Vegas in early December, and I might stop by....

Mandalay Bay seems the same as it was in May.

Dynasty,


These are tough situations that I feel come up often enough to give some serious thought to. Having a ton of outs is great but making a hand that could be second best is the scary part. Having lost a few of these types of hands or missing all the outs lately I probably would have folded this one. The way my luck has been going one of my opponants would have had KT.


About giving the money back. Don't do it. Please wait until I'm in town later this month and lose to me. You see I'm not all that good either and I can use all the help I can get!


You have mentioned Mandalay bay a few times and I'm for sure going to give Mandalaybay poker room a visit besides the mandatory visits by rookies to the Bellagio and Mirage.


Good post.


RL

You said this game was good and fishy. But in your analysis, it sounds like these players are good and not fishy. Good and not fishy players don't play much 4-8 on weekends in my cardroom. In 4-8 on the weekends, Kxs, Ax, and any two face cards are raising hands. Low pocket pairs, sometimes, as well. Among calling hands (any position and regardless of other callers) are two little suited cards and any two middle cards with as many as two gaps. Further, people will pound middle pair into the ground when nobody raises before the flop. Especially on the flop when they can prove their raising mettle cheaply. What could these guy's be pounding away with? In 4-8, on a weekend...damn near anything. Given this, I'd definitely call the flop.


Obviously, you're either playing with better players than I am or you are giving bad players way too much credit. I suspect the former, simply because you said that 13.5 BB is a good night.


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