Chasing the gut shot...

Online 3-6 game. I just entered so I don't have any solid reads any.


The very first hand I pick up A3o in the BB. UTG limps, MP limps, SB completes his blind and I check.


Flop: K 5 4 rainbow. SB checks, I check, UTG bets, MP calls, SB folds. I get 6:1 on my call, not really enough to chase the gut shot. However, if the 2 hits it will look like a complete brick and UTG is likely to bet again. If MP calls then I have a very juicy check-raise coming. I might collect 4 big bets on the turn giving me implied odds of 14:1 not counting any river bets. So I give my piece of cheese a twirl and call.


Turn is a wonderful 2 putting a two flush on the board. Board: K 5 4 2. I lay my trap and check out. Sure enough UTG bets, MP calls and I check-raise. Both call.


River is an off suit queen, final board: K Q 5 4 2. I bet and only UTG calls.


All comments appreciated.


Sincerely Andreas

consider that an Ace may be an out(AK is unlikely) and 6:1 isnt too bad.

He held KQo.

[1] nf is right an Ace is a good card and improves your chances


[2] How do you like it if you knew, for absolute sure, that everybody would check the turn no matter what (even if YOU make it)? Well, if you knew you were getting two cards for the price of one 6:1 is enough. So worring about your check-raise failing is actually a GOOD thing since that means you would have gotten a free card the other 11 of 12 times you needed it.


[3] Your call closes the flop betting round. That's good.


[4] You are drawing to a non-nut straight, That's bad. But its very unlikely anybody has the bigger straight draw since its so low.


[4] Your hand is "clearly" worth a call. If everybody checks the flop you will wish you had taken a stab at it. Just because UTG would have raised knocking out the other guy THIS time doesn't mean you should not have bet the hand yourself. I think you should have bet the flop if you would also have bet T5.


- Louie

Well there are some negatives that no one has mentioned.


1. You could hit your miracle and lose to a redraw.


2. You could spike your ace and pay off a better hand.


I don't think its a bad call, but I doubt that you're giving anything up by dropping. You're variance will drop for sure if you fold.