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10-30-2001, 02:47 AM
I was playing in my favorite small poker room on the Las Vegas Strip, the Monte Carlo, and flopped a good draw out of the big blind but never made a hand out of it. I had to decide whether to bluff on the river or check/fold a hand that couldn't win in a showdown.


It's a typical Vegas 4-8 game with $1 and $2 blinds (satisfied, Derek?). One (maybe two) other good players and a few loosies are at the table. I've won a couple stacks, played well, and been gettting some respect for my bets/raises.


I'm in the big blind and get 9c8h- not bad for a blind hand. Four players limp inlcuding a EP decent player, MP loosie, British tourist in the cutoff and a dealer on the button. The small blind completes his bet and I check to see the flop for free. 6 players see the flop.


The flop is: 7c,6d,2c


Good flop. I've got an open-ended straight draw and two overcards. On the downside, there are a couple of clubs on the flop. The small blind checks. I bet my draw. The EP folds, The MP loosie calls, the cutoff calls, and the button and small blind both fold. The MP loosie could have anyting including just overcards. The Cutoff is a reasonable player. It's tough to put him on a hand. He could have a flush draw. Or, he could have flopped a pair of 6s or 2s with an overcard kicker. Maybe he just has overcards. I just don't know.


The turn is: 7c,6d,2c,Qh


No club. That's good because I probably would have check/folded if one came. No 5 or T either. That's bad because I'm not sure where I am in this hand. So I bet. The MP loosie folds. He had nothing otherwise he would have called. The Cutoff calls again. He could still be on flush draw or have 6s/2s. He could even have AK since I don't think he would have raised pre-flop with it.


The river is: 7c,6d,2c,Qh,As


An Ace. That's about the worse card that could have hit on the river since so many low-limit players will call with nothing but an Ace all the way to the river (Maybe the Tc or 5c would have been worse). But I'm not sure the cutoff is like that. He seems like a better player than that.


Well, I can't win in a showdown with 9-high so I bet. The cutoff thinks about it...and thinks...and thinks...and thinks. He was deliberating for about 10-12 seconds, an eternity by poker standards. He's really having difficulty making a decision. I'm sitting still and looking calm but inside I'm screaming "PLEASE FOLD". Finally, he mucks his cards. Somehow, I contain myself and don't jump out of my seat and pump my fist in the air.


I get the pot and my heart stops pounding a few hands later.


So, how'd I do?

10-30-2001, 10:25 AM
Good bet. There are a lot of things he can't have--no need to run them down here--or he'd have raised you at some point (you said he's a decent player). Plus, he doesn't necessarily put you on a draw--the way the betting went, he could have put you on a middle pair, overcards, or maybe something like QT or QJ. And he never showed any strength, so why not bet into him. You made the smart play.

10-30-2001, 12:30 PM
I'm sure Derek will be pleased with your accuracy ;-).


FWIW I would have played the hand exactly the same way. The ace is so problematic because if he is on a flush draw, he could easily be on a flush draw with the Ac. But I think the chances of him being on a flush draw alone are fairly large, and since he only needs to fold a small % of the time to make your river bet correct, it's a no-brainer. Nice bet, glad you took it down. I would guess he had something like 5c6c and folded a small pair. The ace probabaly saved the hand for you.

10-30-2001, 03:31 PM
So the Ace looks like a bad card for you. Well, it also looks like a bad card for the button unless he HAS an Ace. And if he can have a stiff Ace then he can also have lots of other trash. So its really a good card for you if you intend to bluff.


The problem with this bluff is that there are few hands you can lagitimately represent. Besides random 2-pair hands about the only hand you could have is the A-flush draw. So a thinking player may get suspicious, and rightfully so, when the BB keeps betting in spite of getting 2 over-cards on his presumed flopped pair.


- Louie

10-30-2001, 07:06 PM
i don't agree with your play. I have never played the 1-4-4-8 game but if I understand it right, there were 6 players seeing the flop for $2. There is 12 in the pot. This is perfect for a $2 draw but why are you putting $4 in for a $12 when you are going to hit it 1 in 6? Actually less because clubs will fall sometimes and you will be worried to be it. Save your money for the strong hands or your draws for the big pots. SK

10-31-2001, 11:57 AM
Stone -


You may want to re-do your math a little. Remember that if no one calls (the pot doesn't grow past $12), he wins. So for your math to be relevant, he needs to have some callers. Also, remember that he has two cards to come, which makes his draw about a 1/3 shot by the end (discounting the flush draw). It is a good semi-bluff / value bet depending on the number of callers.


J