What's your play here?

[DOTTT]

$50+$5 SNG at Stars. 7 players left and blinds at 25/50. I'm in the bb and get 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif and getting ready to throw it away once the pot is raised. However, no one raises 3 limpers and the sb completes. Stack sizes and relevant reads on the players are:
Me-2300 and in second place. (Like to think of myself as a solid player /images/graemlins/wink.gif)
utg- 1450 only played 3 hands and won one without a showdown.
utg+2-1800 aggressive player who tends to over bet the pot when he's caught top pair. He also plays a lot of connectors.
utg+3- 1100 very solid player who just took a bad beat for half his chips when his AA got cracked by a AQ flush on the river.
sb- 1600

Ok so I'm happy to get to see the flop for free, and thinking this is going to be the easiest hand to get away from if I miss my set. Well flop comes:
2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

sb checks, this is last place I want to give a free card so I fire 600 into the pot. What do you think of the bet too big/little?

utg calls utg+2 moves all in and utg+3 calls!

sb folds and it's back to me 4350 in the pot, what's your play? Results later.

[ohkanada]

Call. You may well up against Ad and a made flush but based on the pot size you have the odds of catching your boat. Hopefully you are up against Ad in one hand and Kd in the other!

Ken Poklitar

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I fold. One of your opponents might have A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Jx, another might have the flush already, and the third could have TT or JT. The bottom line is, with 3 others sticking it all in the pot, the odds that at least one is already ahead of you are pretty good, and with this many callers, your outs are likely in someone else's hands. There's a good chance two people get knocked out or crippled here. It's hard to fold a set, but I think you have to here.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Ken, there are three other hands in the pot. Wouldn't that significantly reduce the possibility that his outs are live?

[NotMitch]

Note I have never played at the $50 level and I might be way out of line here.

I think I fold becuase the three(assuming UTG calls which seems pretty likely right?) hands I could be up against have me in really bad shape. Would someone with pocket jacks or 10s raise preflop in this situation? I tend to think so, but someone with J10 might limp so my guess is someone holds that. Some has a must a have flush draw or even a made flush, so if you are against a flush draw and J10 you are in decent shape but if its a made flush and J10 drawing to one out. I think there are better spots. But if it was me playing I would probably get caught up in the moment and call.

[Che]

What a hand! FWIW, I see 3 possible scenarios:

1. You are ahead and win 4350 about 2/3 of the time. This happens when opponents have TPTK and some combo of overcards/open-ended straight draw/flush draw.
2. You are behind and win 4350 about 30% of the time. This happens when at least one opponent has a made flush and your boat outs are good.
3. You are behind and win 4350 about 4% of the time. This happens when you’re against TT or a made flush and JT.

If the three scenarios were equally likely, it would be an easy call.

Given your reads, however, scenario 2 appears to be the most likely and it is +EV. Scenario 1 is obviously extremely +EV. So, I probably call unless I’m very confident that this is Scenario 3.

Other thoughts:

Extra motivation for calling is that I still have a fighting chance if I lose the main pot as long as I beat utg+2, who appears to be the most likely player to have a marginal hand.

If you were a short stack, I would definitely call since this seems like a good time to gamble.

If you were a huge stack, I would definitely call since you could afford it.

Since you’re a big-but-not-huge stack, the possibility of scenario 3 would haunt me but I would probably call in the end (and cry when Kurn ends up being right and my opponents show A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and TT).

Edit: Just found another oops...there's a good chance that more chips are going in the pot since UTG will call a decent % of the time. Thus you often win more than T4350. Since I already advocated calling, I guess it really doesn't matter, actually. Sorry about the sloppy post. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Che]

If one of your opponents shows A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, file a complaint. Sorry! I guess your fourth two is probably still out there...

[ohkanada]

I somewhat forgot about the UTG guy who just called. I think it is pretty close either way. Of course if the 3rd guy has a bigger set or top 2 then that hurts a lot.

Either way if he misses the boat he may win a sidepot depending on who wins the main pot.

Ken Poklitar

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I call your attention to this:

utg calls utg+2 moves all in and utg+3 calls!

He has 3 opponents in the pot, not 2, and I'm certain that if he calls, UTG is coming along as well.

[Che]

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If it's just 2 opponents, I'd probably call, but the fact that there was so much interest in that flop might scare me away.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's just 2 opponents, I'd probably call, but the fact that there was so much interest in that flop might scare me away.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my initial reaction, but I decided in the end that the third opponent is most likely just a duplicated flush or flush-draw. If it's a duplicated flush draw, the third opponent is actually a plus since they're taking each other's outs. (If it's a duplicated made flush, it's obviously irrelevant.)

So in the end, there's little difference between having 2 opponents and 3 opponents IMHO (other than the extra chips when you win /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

Does this make sense?

[LetsRock]

Doncha just love this game?

My initial instinct was to just get away and let them beat up on each other. I was kind of thinking that maybe you bet too much and now the decision is hard. Perhaps a pot sized bet would have been more appropriate.

But, after reading the other posts and looking at the situation again, I'm not quite so sure I was right. (If only I had this much time during the game to get input and make decisions.....)

First of all, you won't be knocked out of the tourney if
you lose.

UTG just called - I'd have to put him on the A or K diamond draw. I would expect him to get out of the fray here.

UTG+1 - based on your description, there's about a 40% chance you're way ahead (TP), 20% way behind (made flush) and another 40% he's on the staight and or flush draw. (These aren't card odds, just "read" odds.)

UTG+2 - this is the guy that scares me. Is he tilting, or does he have something good? If he wasn't in a position to be tilting, this would be a pretty easy laydown for me, but....

The thing I like about this after seeing the monster, is that there's a real good chance that everyone's outs are thin which makes your set look very good if the flush isn't already made. I wouldn't really want to see the T or J as that just made someone holding the JT a boat. I can't believe that a TT or JJ wouldn't have raised so I thinks odds ar in your favor that your hand is good now.

If this knocks me out, I fold, wishing I'd made a smaller lead bet. I'll take my chances with 850 against a smaller field. Since it doesn't, shove 'em in.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You may be right, but I'm trying to avoid the trap of seeing the action as simply made flushes or flush draws. For example, why couldn't one of those flush draws also be top pair with the Ad as a kicker. I'm also more prone to believe that the final opponent in actually has the flush. Eventually, when there is so much action in a hand, you have to believe somebody. Now the question remains, why are the others committing all or most of their chips (they all saw the flop cheaply). To my mind, one of them has to believe that he has a draw that beats a flush, and that hand either beats yours or counterfeits most of your outs. The deciding factor to me is that if I fold here, I'm closer to the money than I was at the beginning of the hand. If this is a big multi in the middle stages, I'd be more inclined to gamble.

Oh, by the way. I don't like the overbet on the flop. Pot-size would've been fine.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
To my mind, one of them has to believe that he has a draw that beats a flush, and that hand either beats yours or counterfeits most of your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this is the crux of the matter. In the small buyin games I play, this wouldn't necessarily be the case since most opponents play as though flushes were invincible, but in a $50 game (as we are here) you're probably right.

Given the small blind-to-stack-size ratio (even the short stack has 22xBB), an opponent playing TT for set value is a definite possibility.

In fact, Cloutier's book recommends limping with JJ in this situation if I remember correctly so we might be up against 2 sets.

Oh well, maybe we should fold after all. This may be an example of spending too much time looking at the strength of my hand rather than considering the strength of the opponents. Those pot odds sure are nice, though...

[ThaSaltCracka]

guaranted in this situation one of the three players in the pot has you beat all ready, with three people in, one probably is on a flush draw, one of the other two players probably has it, and a third could have two pair. I don't know how two pair or trips could call here, why would you want to, your call risks you being knocked out of the tournament, although it could also lead to a big payday if you win.

I think you have to fold, let some other people get knocked out instead of you.

[triplc]

Another factor is your read on UTG+3...you read him as "very solid". If that is your read, and he is willing to play this hand against possibly three others...Methinks he flopped the nut flush. Axs is a great limping hand...

I fold.

CCC

[DOTTT]

Great replies guys! Thanks a lot. All of you made some very good points, and I think the majority of you are leaning on a fold here. Before I say what I did I’d like to post my thoughts once it got back to me.

1. Since I have no real read on utg, I had to take a guess that he was drawing to the flush whether it’s the nut flush I’m not sure of, he could also have caught a piece of the board. Maybe something like QdJx?
2. My read on utg+2 helped me put him on a hand. I certainly didn’t think he was holding TT or JJ he would definitely raise with that preflop. So what could he have? Well TJ is certainly a high possibility which would take away some of my outs in case someone was holding the flush. One thing I found interesting is that no one put him on a complete bluff. I definitely over bet the pot here and utg’s call also looks weak so a raise all in to steal the pot is possible. However, I didn’t have enough confidence to just assume that so I had to give him credit for at least something like TJ.
3. Now the hardest hand to get a read on was utg+3. There is a possibility he was playing the TT or JJ here for value especially with the blinds where they are. He could also be holding the Ad here. So which is it? He had just taken a bad beat, he could be gambling here with the nut flush draw.
4. I knew if I called utg would certainly come in if he was on any kind of draw. If he is holding something like the Qd Jx,. and if I place utg+3 with Ad Jx that would leave utg+2 with 4 outs. I would be a big favorite against him and even if utg+3 hits his flush I’m still in the game.
5. The pot at 4350 is giving some nice odds and although there's a chance I’m going to lose to a flush here, as long as my read on utg+2 is right I’m still going to be in the game.

I ran my clock down to 5 seconds and finally decided to call. To my surprise utg actually folded.Utg+2 turns over the Th Js and utg+3 turns over Ad 9c.
The turn:
6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
And the river:
6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I take down the pot with the full house and have a commanding lead. I really overlooked the chance of catching a runner runner, anyone know the odds on that? I end up heads up with utg I brought up the hand and asked what he was holding, he told me he was holding the black aces. I think if I didn’t have the amount of chips that I did I would have to throw this hand away, certainly one of the toughest calls I’ve had to make.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The odds of hitting your boat after flopping a set are a bit less than 2-1 against. That takes into consideration the runner-runner situation. 7 outs on the turn, then 10 outs on the river.

[ThaSaltCracka]

crazy hand, I still don't think I would have called, but I guess you might have pot odds, I dunno, never understood that very well, anyways nice hand,

BTW where you sweating profussly after calling? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I really overlooked the chance of catching a runner runner, anyone know the odds on that?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's about a 6% chance. There's also 4% chance of catching the case 2 in two cards.

So, against top two pair and a made flush, when these are your only ways to win, you win about 10% of the time.

Guy.

[DOTTT]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW where you sweating profussly after calling?



[/ QUOTE ]
lol yes! but I'm lucky I even got the call off, closed my eyes and came close to hitting fold /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Haupt_234]

im probably just repeating what others have said, but here's my thoughts:

with even one all-in against you of a medium sized stack, it's still a tough call.

now, the fact that there are 3 players out of 5/6 that are practically all-in, it's an easy lay down considering your position in the tourney.

also, you have to remember that your hand doesn't consist of a higher diamond for the flush backup, supposing no one has it already.






hopes any of this helps....