My Super Bowl Thoughts....

[Big Al]

Here are my thoughts on the Super Bowl:

Right before the playoffs started, I posted my thoughts on the first round games and also stated I thought Carolina would win it all. Pretty hard for me to jump off on them after going 3-0 ATS with them and having 2 sweet money line plays come through (which I also touted/advised taking here, as you know, if you follow my postings). As I had said in that previous post, defense wins championships and I felt they had the best defense of any of the playoff teams. I still feel that way but I know the subject is open for debate given the strength of New Englands defense. This is, without a doubt, the Panthers toughest test. Historically, teams with a strong D and have been and won previously in the Super Bowl, win and cover again. All signs point to the Pats. Maybe I am riding a horse longer than I should but I still have got to go with Carolina. This game, when 2 tough defenses collide, it comes down to turnovers. Strong defenses cause turnovers and the question is which one will force some turnovers and make the play. I am going with Carolina but I admit that New England can do it just as easily. I hate saying this, but I have a feeling they (Carolina) got that "team of destiny" stuff going on. My advice is to take the money line and points on Carolina, but not too heavy. Enjoy the profits they brought in their previous wins, make a small money line and ATS bet, and enjoy the game. I also hope you have enjoyed my picks and advice this season, I think if you followed my postings and picks and if you played them, you will have enjoyed another profitable year (I know I did). See you next season, God willing.--Big Al--

[shemp]

hem. haw. enjoy the game. haw. hem. had a good year.

Work with me AL!

Props on points, first downs, attendance to turnover ratio.

Scalf, pick up on line 4!

[Abagadro]

Big Al,

I just wanted to give you a sincere thank you for your picks all year. I am not a heavy sports better and feel like a bit of a leach on this board as I don't post picks (mainly because I am not confident of my handicapping), but you made me some fun money this season (including the two Carolina money line playoff bets which were some of the sweetest bet all year). It's great you let us into not only your good picks, but the reasoning behind them. I have learned much. So, for all the lurkers who mooch off your genius, thank you again.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif..big al..

thanks for a gr8 year...ya will probably save my marriage to a reall sweetheart..(and mother of my two children..)...as she feels carolina is the play...and i feel new eng is an 80% cover play...lol..

of course; i loved philly in nfc finals last year...and ya sure took the bacon there...

it does seem like this super bowl is different..lol...something nagging...like listening to debussey...hard to know which side you'rw really on...

lol


gl big al...give us a hoop or puck play onced in ahile...huh...have a little pity on us rounders..

gl /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[mikelow]

money line just too greedy....

I originally liked the Patriots, but the more I analyze (rather than think...there's a difference) I believe Carolina's front four is good enough to keep the Panthers in this game. It might be close and it could go either way.
I still like the under.

Also, one should check the weather. I think the the roof will be open unless it's raining. Now if it's cold (start time is 5:25pm CST), will the roof be closed? Have to check that. But I don't see the weather being New England's ally the way it was in the playoffs.

Good luck!

[Wake up CALL]

"Now if it's cold....."

Lol, Ever been to Houston Mikelow? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Big Al]

Thank you, I sincerely appreciate that.To be honest, I feel bad when I post a game/pick and it loses. I know that I have built a bit of a rep here and that there are some people out there who are betting their hard earned money on what I post. When a Shoe In fails or a game I strongly tout goes belly up, I feel kind of depressed. There have been Sundays in the past where a game I posted lost and that night I am depressed and my girlfriend will say I am being ridiculous, worrying and getting depressed because I posted a loser. I try to explain to her that there are some people out there that are directly affected by what I post as far as their money is concerned. Shes says I am nuts. Anyway, I do take this seriously and try to provide a limited number of strong plays. I do console myself in the fact, that over the years, I have provided a heck of a lot more winners than losers. I also feel good about the Carolina tout, with the St Louis game/money line pick being an especially sweet one. I know this sounds stupid because none of us have ever met, but I really want to do well for everyone that posts here and reads my picks, so when I read what you wrote it makes me feel good. Thanks. I have developed a basic philosophy and way of looking at games over the years that has served me well for years now. I am glad that some of you have been able to profit from my plays/advice.--Big Al--

[shemp]

For me, it is just plain fun, the idea of a "Shoe-In" is just a crack-up -- and then, for crying out loud, the shoe-in comes in .700 or whatever. The other one that kills me is, "I don't bet SomeSport, but I really like the Whatzits in this spot."

I'm not in your "shoes", so I cant fully understand the emotions, but to me, it (intellectually) is a little silly to shoulder the burden of somebody else's poor money management or whacky expectations or inability to think for themselves. You are, no doubt, a prince with a spectacular sense of empathy, but I'm with your girlfriend on this one.

I hope you post picks as they occur to you, I'll probably bet some if you do. If you don't, I hope you talk about handicapping. Most of all, I hope you enjoy 2+2. As for wanting you to keep talking about handicapping -- it's not because I think it could make me a better handicapper (I'm hopeless), but I'm interested in seeing how people who can do this think about it. Your posts are really gems of expression and insight. "So-and-So is beat up after a big rivalry win and on the road, I expect a let down and I really like OtherTeam here because XYZ, give/take the 4.5 points." There are little nuggets here and there, not enough for me to do it myself, but enough to fascinate me -- your never talking corners and team speed, and you always have something interesting to say.

If it takes any pressure off, I read scalf with all the enthusiasm I read you. I like to check in to see if he's got a last second take on a late (get-well) game. Hawaii has to be tipping it off against somebody, right? Of course, I bet the other way if at all (just kidding!)-- but think of the pressure he must feel, what with 6 games a day!

[hutz]

I actually saw my breath this morning when I went out to get the paper. While it could have been the sardines, garlic, and limburger I had for breakfast this morning, I think the more likely explanation is that it was actually *gasp* in the mid-30s! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif The weather for Sunday is expected to be in the 50s or 60s at game time, with a slight chance of rain. Based on what I've read in the paper, the roof will stay open (except during Aerosmith's performance) unless the weather turns pretty nasty (e.g., I think they'll keep it open if there's a light rain). I hope it's nice for the game if for no other reason than to show-off what a great city Houston is during the hundred or so days when it's not in the 90s with 90% humidity.

[hutz]

I'd like to second the positive comments you have received here. You are a true asset to 2+2. Your thoughts are insightful and are accurate a far, far above-average amount of the time. Thanks for all of your contributions.

[Easy E]

hmmm... you're hitting a 60-70% win rate, if I remember correctly (and higher if we went purely money line on your picks, without those nasty point spreads to deal with)....

WHAT IS THERE TO FEEL GUILTY ABOUT?!??!? Heck, we're getting it for FREE!

I, for one, greatly appreciate your posts- I learn a lot and have profited as well (I missed the chance to get the Rams game, unfortunately, but the Eagles game was a nice reward). I'm evidently going to have to rethink my money line NE bet, that I was tentatively contemplating.

You should NEVER feel guilty for doing all of that quality work and generously sharing with us, both in training and in betable information. Anyone stupid enough to think that "Shoe-In" = "Guarantee" deserves to get slapped around.
I'll take your advice over anyone else's that I know- well, maybe second to fading scalfie's picks! :P

I greatly appreciate your attitude, your knowledge and your generosity- so much so, that I'm with your girlfriend here- if someone ever makes you feel that way again, I can find a few large gentlemen that can conveniently straigthen out their misconceptions.

Now, if you work a little harder next year, you MIGHT be able to match up to my record in Pimpin' Picks.....

Enjoy the year, we'll see you in the fall.
Thanks a bunch!
XOXOXO

[mikelow]

No, but I have been to Dallas in the wintertime....

[dogsballs]

I'm just a semi-lurker in this particular forum but I'll second Easy E's post here. Don't stop ever!

a) those of us who take heed of the shoe-ins make a tidy little profit. Ever heard the expression: "gotta miss some to make some"? We all know that.

b) we learn something. It's great to read the what/how/why you guys consider in your takes on events. I love it when you get an explanation of why a bet might be a good one, not just someone posting a line. (nod to wildbill & others too)

c) feeling guilty? Don't bother. I post my crap around these forums and refuse to ever feel guilty if someone takes up on my advice and it fails them.

good work big fella. keep it up and gl

(I kno nuthin 'bout nfl but had a lot of fun raggin my coworkers and riding the panthers for some beers outta them.. /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

[Easy E]

though I did get a small bet down with someone, getting Carolina +10 at their insistance ("did you KNOW that Big Al is picking the money line on Carolina?")

This is what concerns me about Carolina in this game. Besides the fact that this is their first time, I think that Carolina is not going to have a huge amount of success running the football (unless the game becomes a blowout in their favor) against the Patriots... and I question whether Carolina will be able to get away from the run early in the game, if they would need to do so.
Plus, the Panthers had a fair amount of fumbles this year, never a good thing in an important game.

Therefore, it could come down on Delhomme's shoulders... against the Patriots secondary. I'm not sure that I like those odds, especially giving Belichick an extra week to plan defensive wrinkles. I have a feeling that the Patriots are going to be keyed on shutting down Smith- can the other Carolina receivers pick it up?

Another key- can Carolina's line put enough pressure on Brady, while controlling the run?

Even with the weight of Big Al's pick, I'm still not committed to the Panthers yet. I'm leaning a lot harder in their direction, however.