Big pot, river fold

[SoBeDude]

Party 15-30. I'm new to the table, but usuall suspects present.

I get AK /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the button.

UTG loosey limps, MP raises, LMP calls 2, I 3 bet. blinds fold, rest call. Four to see the flop.

Flop: T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked to me, I bet, happy with TP/TK.

UTG folds, other two call.

Turn: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Well, the flush got there.

Checked to me, I bet. both just call. Maybe flush isn't out there?

River: Js AQ just got there.

I'm planning on checking this one through. First player checks, now second player bets. I think and think and fold.

Why did I fold? Pot is big after all! Easy to call for one bet, right?

Well what hands can I beat other than a bluff that they'd bet in to me with. And what hands am I behind?

And why would he bet in to me instead of letting me bet? He's betting because he's afraid I won't bet. I 3bet preflop and bet the flop and the turn. Why would he suddenly be aftaid I won't bet the river? Only if he has the winning hand and he's afraid I'll check.

He could have the flush. He could have the straight. He could have 2 pair. No way he's betting in to me with KQ or something.

I think I saved $30. My buddy blew a gasket when he saw that fold, called it HORRIBLE.

Thought, comments, abuse, praise?

-Scott

P.S. when I folded, MP folded as well and he took the pot uncontested.

[Tyler Durden]

If my math is correct (and it always is, I was a math major) you're getting 11.5 to 1 on your call (I realize there's one player left to act, but still...). Mathematically speaking, I think a call is the right play, though I would expect to lose. But even still, I have to call here.

[Edge34]

Hey sobe,

This is a tough one...yeah, the flush got there...and the possible AQ gutshot (which better at least have one heart). Still, I'm not sure if I could fold this one here...if I thought there was a good chance of a raise behind me, then maybe...I just don't see it happening with only that one other guy who's been happy to check-call. You're definitely right, chances are great that he's hit something here that beats your Kings with an Ace. It looks like about 11 BB's in the pot...decent pot odds for calling one bet. I actually like JJ here...lots of stubborn players will call you down with a high pocket pair like that, especially with just the one overcard on board. And yeah, he is probably afraid of you checking it through, but for one BB, at least you get to be sure about what's winning the 11 BB pot. Just my two cents.

-Edge

[mosta]

I think you're probably beat. But you have to call. You have to call because he may be thinking the only way he can possibly win the pot is to bet at it. You have to call because you don't want to train people to bluff at you when the scare card hits. (You don't want to have to face more of these tough calls, and have to start three-betting when you don't have the big hand.) I was in almost the same situation a couple nights ago, online. I had something like TPTK, and was leading all the way, behind one or two players, being called down. River comes, except mine was more of a blank. Dude now bets into me. I mean to call but I raise by accident. I cringe waiting for the three-bet, and lo and behold--he folds! Maybe he bet by accident too. It was the last thing I expected. But it was worth all my other losing river calls.

[Monkeyslacks]

I think JJ unlikely as he didn't 3-bet preflop...

[Monkeyslacks]

Looks like AQ with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif to me, maybe KJs from a loose passive player, but I'm still calling. You don't want people noticing that you'll lay down a hand to this type of action and I think you're ahead enough to make it only marginally -ev if at all. But then of course it's player/image dependent, are they short-stacked etc... I think you'd see turn action from a flush though. Would you have laid it down to a turn c/r?

[ QUOTE ]
No way he's betting in to me with KQ or something.


[/ QUOTE ]

A tricky player will often bet here with anything they intend to call with...

[drewjustdrew]

As soon as the table sees this fold, you will get played at the rest of the night. You must call down from here on out.

[anatta]

This could be a good fold...I know good players fold on the end for one bet more than most.

[Buckshot]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I saved $30

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to think of this in terms of how many times he has to make that bet with you folding in relation to how many times you make the call and lose. Do you see why?

~stephen

[ActionBob]

I'm planning on checking this one through.

Why?

-ActionBob

[Duke]

The ones who fire in suspiciously on the turn I've taken to raising 100% of the time. River, well... that's a call usually. But damn that bet looks rather suspect.

~D