? WHAT % IS BAD BEAT JACKPOT HIT WITH AK, AQ. AJ...??

[N4CER1]

Hi..
If you have a full table (10 playes) and aprox: 30 hands per hour are delt...and the Bad Beat Jackpot is (Aces full of Kings)beaten by anything.......

The question is: When the bad beat is dropped to (Aces full of Queens) beaten...(Then Aces full of Jacks) beaten...how much easier is it to be hit....like percentage wise??

Then lets say you add a second full table at the same hourly hand rate.....what are the odds of it hitting now??

Thanks for your help on this.......

[Lost Wages]

When the bad beat is dropped to (Aces full of Queens) beaten...(Then Aces full of Jacks) beaten...how much easier is it to be hit....like percentage wise??

Yes, it will be eaiser to hit the jackpot when the qualifier is lowered. However, it is impossible to determine the percentage change because the probability of hitting the jackpot is not independent of player actions.

Consider two hypothetical players A and B. Player A plays AA,KK and AK by the following rule: he always takes them to showdown no matter what. Player A also plays AQ and QQ the same way, always taking them to a showdown no matter what.

Player B plays AA, KK and AK exactly the same as player A. However, player B thinks AQ and QQ are sucker hands. He always folds them preflop.

Now, it is clear that the probability of player A making Aces full of Kings is the same as it is for player B. Thus, the probability of having them beaten and triggering a jackpot is the same for both players.

However, it is equally clear that the probability of each player making Aces full of Queens is not the same. Thus the probability of a jacpot occuring on a given table is dependent upon how each player plays.

Lost Wages

P.S. Next time, before you flame someone, you should have some idea what you are talking about.

[N4CER1]

You deserve to be flamed...........answer questions you have the answer for....If you don't know...let some one answer that does know..


read your own post....it says right at the start (by you) that it is easier to hit as the qualifier goes down...

That is the question that has been asked !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Whether a person plays untill the river, plays a different hand a different way is the same no matter what....

The question is when the qualifier goes down how much easier is it to hit % wise.???

You yourself said that it easier to hit......

We want to know how much easier???

[Oregon Bear]

I agree with the flaming idea but I still think you're wrong.Here's why: The probability change remains the same as you lower the qualifiers even though it is impossible to figure out the probability for the bad beat hitting in the first place. Each time the qualifier goes down you are adding 3 more cards into the mix---AK to AQ--3 queens must be added into the equation as a pair of queens can qualify. The fourth Q can't be added because it is already in the mix with all the other cards that can be used with it to make a staight flush..So if you add 3 more cards to the equation everytime the qualifier goes down that is 3 out of 52 or 5.769% change in probability. Right or Wrong??....Bear

[Lost Wages]

read your own post....it says right at the start (by you) that it is easier to hit as the qualifier goes down...

We are in agreement that it is eaiser to hit as the qualifier goes down. I have never said that it isn't.

That is the question that has been asked !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No, the question asked was <font color="red">how much</font> does the probability change. Not whether or not it changes.

Whether a person plays untill the river, plays a different hand a different way is the same no matter what....

What you are saying is this: Given a table with ten players who will play the same regardless of the qualifier, there will be an increase in the probability of the jackpot being hit as the qualifier goes down. This I agree with also. I have never said otherwise.

The question is when the qualifier goes down how much easier is it to hit % wise.???

Do you understand that this is not the same question as asking <font color="red">if</font> the probability changes. You cannot determine the % change without knowing how each player will play each hand under each circumstance.

Return to my example of players A &amp; B. Let's say that they play every possible hand the same under every possible circumstance except: player A always takes AQ/QQ to showdown while player B always folds AQ/QQ preflop. Still with me?

Now, consider two tables 1 &amp; 2. Table 1 consists of ten player A's. Table 2 consists of ten player B's. In all other aspects tables 1 and 2 are identical. Let the current qualifier be aces full of kings. Look at how players A and B play AA/AK/KK, they play them the same. Clearly the probability of hitting a jackpot are the same for the two tables when the qualifier is aces full of kings.

Now the qualifier drops to aces full of queens. Look at how players A and B play AQ/QQ, they play them differently. Clearly the probability of hitting a jackpot with a qualifier of aces full of queens is lower for table 2 than for table 1 because players on table 2 will make a qualifing hand less often.

So far so good? Now to your question, what is the difference percentage wise when the qualifier drops? Well, tables 1 and 2 have the <font color="red">same jackpot probability when the qualifier is aces full of kings</font>, but they have <font color="red">different jackpot probabilities when the qualifier is aces full of queens</font>. Is the percent change in the probability of hitting a jackpot the same for both tables? <font color="red">No it is not!</font> The only difference between the two tables is how players will play their hands. Conclusion: they way players play their hands affects the percent change in the probability of the jackpot being hit as the qualifier is lowered.

You deserve to be flamed...........answer questions you have the answer for....If you don't know...let some one answer that does know..

Care to retract this?

Lost Wages