Monte Carlo 6-12: What's my opponent doing?

[Dynasty]

I bumped into a friend from Massachusetts yesterday. He has justed started playing hold 'em in the past year. Since he knew I was out here playing for a living, he asked me a bunch of questions when he saw me at the Mirage. We ended up going to the Monte Carlo to play some 4-8 and then 6-12. This hand in particular was something he learned from.

The 6-12 games had blinds of $1 and $3. A pre-flop raise made the bet a total of $9.

The hand:

One EP limps ahead of me. I'm in MP with A/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif and raise. The Button calls $9 cold. The Big Blind and EP also call. The other three players in the hand were all loose, weak, losing players. Four players see the flop.

The flop is: K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Big Blind and EP check to me. I bet. Button raised without hesitation. Both the Big Blind and P folded. I called.

The turn is: K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I checked. Button paused and gave the appearance of thinking the situation over. After about four seconds, he bet. I called.

The river is: K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I checked. This time the Button hesitated for a quite a long time. For about ten seconds, he gave the appearance of thinking the situation over. He muttered something which the whole table could hear about the flush getting there. Finally, he bet.

Your play?

[gonores]

I think he wants you to lay down because his QJ didn't improve, so he's acting like he has something of a monster. I'd look him up.

[chim17]

I make him show it, if he's holding AJ or trips good for him.

[Mike Gallo]

The 6-12 games had blinds of $1 and $3. A pre-flop raise made the bet a total of $9.

In our $6-$12 game we play with full $3-$6 blinds. In your game does the next raise go to $15?

Your play?

I would CHECK-RAISE, and hope he could lay down a better hand like two pair.

The A-Rod saga ended today. Buck and A-Rod kissed and made up, and A-Rod became the captain.

[Mike Gallo]

I must confess I read other players posts and I came to a new conclusion.

Perhaps he bet and acted weak to induce a call from you. He put on his Hollywood act.

If he truly felt bad the flush got there and can laydown a hand to a check raise bet. However why would he bet after someone checked if he feared the flush.

Ok if you mean he appeared weak tight, check raise.

If you think he wants you to call, fold.

[Vehn]

You need to make your decision on the turn rather than the river. The river doesn't matter.

For the most part, when you see this sort of act from a player, its because he has a monster and is trying to get you to call. He probably has KT or QT here.

[brian0729]

I disagree MG. I dont play live so I may be out of line (take my words with a grain of salt please) but what the player said makes me think he has a monster and is goating our here to raise. If this is the case this is an easy muck. If you really cant tell (which you cant everytime) I think you call (Which is what I would do here). I think a C/R opens you to a three bet by a better hand. Can you lay this down to a three bet and should\would you?

[Bob T.]

I can't tell if he is fishing for a call, or fishing for a fold, so I probably call. It is just possible that he has QJ and played his pair plus OESD very aggressively.

[Mike Gallo]

Read my follow up post.

I read the post quickly and thought the player had a weak tight appearance. My mistake for glossing over the post without really reading it. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[JohnShaft]

I'm with Vehn.

I've never played in a casino against live opponents, but it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to say he's scared of the flush, then bet.
I'd definitely raise the likelyhood he has a hand so strong he knows you can't beat him.
Hell, thinking about it, it sounds like he's trying to intice a Check-Raise *from* a made flush.

I agree with the fold the Turn if you're not calling the River proposition in situations like this.
But I think his Hollywood act tells you you're beaten. (Especially given he's not a good player, who may put on this weak act precisely so you think he's strong, and you fold a better hand)

[slavic]

sure sounds like he has a house

Too much acting for me.

[BigEndian]

This guy has a monster, fold. The next time he does it, then you check-raise.

- Jim

[Nate tha' Great]

It's a patently bullsh*t claim because the "flush" would have been runner runner and you'd given him action on the flop. He's got a boat, I'm pretty sure. It wouldn't stun me if he had quads.

Was your opponent Keanu Reeves?

[chesspain]

Since the button has done everything but openly flash his K to the table, your only chance of winning this hand is to stare at your opponent, flash a subtle grin, and checkraise. Since he is well aware that he is now behind to a Tx or a completed flush, you might get him to drop for one more bet.

Can you pull off that good of an acting performance?

Edit: Unless I'm this gullible, I'm amazed that everyone assumes that opponent had a boat. He could easily have KQ, KJ, or even K9s, which means that I still think that checkraising is the way to go.

[Mikey]

I don't know....I wasn't there to analyze his little act.

[steveyz]

I think he has the boat as well. When I was playing the 3/6 at Bay 101 on saturday, there was hand where one guy was raised the turn and then said "let's see a heart" (there were 2 hearts on board). Sure enough, he had flopped the boat.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to make your decision on the turn rather than the river. The river doesn't matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very poor analysis. My opponent can have many hands on the turn which I'm beat by but drawing very live against. An Ace, Queen, or Jack could give me the winning hand. So, calling on the turn simply to draw while still holding onto the option of folding on the river shouldn't be dismissed like you did.

[Vehn]

I know I realized that later. However my comment does apply considering the 2nd part of my post, in that someone who does this big pausing act on the turn/river usually has a monster. In other words the ten on the turn improved him - well, if it improved him, he has a full house, unless he had Kx in which case he doesn't need to worry about his kicker obviously.

Regardless you should have some idea where you are.

[harboral]

I would have to give him credit for a straight or a full house. He may have suited (non-heart) AJ and was happy to flop a straight, unhappy to see the ten and be just looking for someone to beat him - hence the comment on the flush. At this point I would have to know what happened in the past hour - did he have some good hands beat? If not - what's he whinning about? And if not, I muck quickly.

[Dynasty]

I folded on the river rather quickly. Before my cards even hit he muck, my opponent proudly showed his cards to the whole table. He had KTo for a full-house.

For those of you who have Caro's Book of Tells: The Body Language of Poker, you should look at pages 167-173. As I was watching my opponent in my hand, the images in the book came to mind. It was almost comical.

I might have folded anyway without any tell. After all, I couldn't even beat top pair. But, with this tell, I could have just as easily folded AK.

Tells don't add a lot to your winrate. But, it's fun when you see one and use it well.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he wants you to lay down because his QJ didn't improve, so he's acting like he has something of a monster. I'd look him up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he acting like he has a monster? If we assume he's acting, isn't he trying to portray weakness? He thought for a very long time. Then, he said aloud that he was concerned about the flush. Isn't this act intended to make anybody watching think that he doesn't have a strong hand?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
...my comment does apply considering the 2nd part of my post, in that someone who does this big pausing act on the turn/river usually has a monster. In other words the ten on the turn improved him - well, if it improved him, he has a full house, unless he had Kx in which case he doesn't need to worry about his kicker obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second part of your orignal post nailed it. I was a little slow recognizing his acting on the turn. After I called the turn bet, I starting watching him more closely and considered why he paused for a bit on the turn. When the Hollywood performance came on the river, it was all over.

[gonores]

Oops...I must've gone one level too far with my thinking. I figured he thought you knew he was acting, so he consciously tried to sell you a monster. I gave him too much credit.