Bet the river?

[juncker]

A party 10/20 hand.
I'm on the button and are dealt 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif,9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. All folds to the CO who raises. I reraise, the sb folds, bb calls and so does the CO.

Flop: 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

They both check, I bet, both call.

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

They both check, I bet, they both call.

River: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

They both check and so do I

My thoughts: I couldn't really see how 2 opponents could call my turn bet without one of the being on a flush draw with this board. Lately I have been check-raised a lot in situation like this. Do you think a bet has a +EV

[Zele]

You were absolutely right. It's not even close to a good bet against 2 players that have called the whole way like that. In fact, if you're bet to, your set is almost foldable. But not.

[DanZ]

If someone had a flush draw, wouldn't they make some noise on this board, since it's unlikely someone has paired the board on flop or turn?

also, the 2nd player shouldn't have a flush, since he can't expect you to bet for him with JJ or TT or AK or similar. It 's very likely they were both calling because they have pockt pairs that they think are good. Unfortunately, one of those pocket pairs is QQ, but this seems a little unlikely to be played "slow" since your 3 bet is a "late vs. late" situation.

Dan Z.

[Manzanita]

juncker,

It would be really useful to know something about your opponents, but assuming that they are typical players I would usually bet the river.

If an opponent did make their flush on the end they are taking a big chance going for a check-raise. This ties into the following: what do your opponents put you on? Most likely they will think that you have an overpair or 2 big cards. If you did have 2 big cards then you will almost surely check the river. Holding an overpair there is a better chance that you will bet the river, but it is by no means a sure thing. Given the number of combinations possible for having an overpair versus 2 big cards, it is significantly more likely that you have 2 big cards. Therefore, in most situations you would check on the end.

If you do bet the river, what are the chances that you will be called by an inferior hand? Given the way the hand played out I think there's a good chance that someone (most likely the CO) has a middle pair (something like 77 or 88) and will make a crying call. There is also a chance (although less likely) that someone has a 9 and flopped top pair, which will also pay you off. It's also possible that an opponent held a hand like KQ and will now call with their top pair.

I'll toss in 2 more reasons for betting. First, you are only facing two opponents (against more I would be tempted to check on the end). Second, neither opponent has shown any strength (the exception is the CO's preflop raise, which isn't really that strong of a play since you don't need a premium hand to try to steal the blinds).

-- Manzanita

[Depraved]

God yes, bet the river! I can guarantee you'll pick up more bets than you lose if you bet. It's a a clear value bet unless you have an ultra specific read on either of your opponents.

[ActionBob]

Is this a trick question or something? Betting here is a no-brainer.

-ActionBob

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
You were absolutely right. It's not even close to a good bet against 2 players that have called the whole way like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is terrible advice. A flush draw is very likely to be generating action on that board. Since our hero was called on the flop and turn, this looks like overcard hunts or pocket pairs that decided to call down. You can't afford to leave these bets on the table.

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, if you're bet to, your set is almost foldable. But not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be ridiculous. The pot is large, it's one bet, and hero has second set on a 3-flushed board. It would take a very predictable player for this laydown to be even close.

[andyfox]

I thought Zele was being facetious.

Zele?

[juncker]

Ok.... I understand that checking was wrong. But if I bet and get raised should I then call or fold?

[ike]

Only fold against incredibly predictable opposition. This is a pretty ideal situation to c/r bluff, the pot is big, and it would not be totally unreasonable for a worse hand to believe that it was good.

[Monkeyslacks]

Bet and call a raise. Your hand is good more often than not. Some maniacs will c/r you here with AQ and some will c/r here as a complete bluff to take away pots from Zele...

[Zele]

[ QUOTE ]
This is terrible advice. A flush draw is very likely to be generating action on that board. Since our hero was called on the flop and turn, this looks like overcard hunts or pocket pairs that decided to call down. You can't afford to leave these bets on the table.


[/ QUOTE ]

1. Well, I suppose it depends somewhat on the game, but the chances of you seeing overcards if called , at least against my usual lineup, are slim indeed. PP is possible, but would be much more likely to generate action than the flush draw in a $10/$20 game. Point is you're last to act with no cards to come and I still claim that betting has negative equity against the majority of players, although I should have phrased it a little more equivocally. Put another way, I believe that the probability of there being a flush draw out conditional on there being no post-flop action is between 50%-75%.

2. No, I don't really think you should ever fold here. My point was it's a crying call, and what I was trying to imply is that it can become a fold with another player or two in the pot, depending on the bettor's position and if there's been another caller. But of course always err on the side of calling in a situation like this.