KQ: semi-bluff on a paired board

[Nate tha' Great]

UTG here is a reasonable player.

Party Poker 5/10 (6 handed)
NateThaGreat has K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif and is BB

UTG raises, CO(poster) calls, Button folds, SB folds, NateThaGreat calls

Flop(6 2/5 SB): 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif

NateThaGreat checks, UTG bets, CO folds, NateThaGreat calls

Turn(4 1/5 BB): T/images/graemlins/heart.gif

NateThaGreat checks, UTG bets, NateThaGreat raises, UTG calls

River(8 1/5 BB): 4/images/graemlins/club.gif

NateThaGreat bets ...

[Bubmack]

UTG here is a reasonable player.

Party Poker 5/10 (6 handed)
NateThaGreat has K, Q and is BB

UTG raises, CO(poster) calls, Button folds, SB folds, NateThaGreat calls


Looks Good



Flop(6 2/5 SB): 4, J, J


NateThaGreat checks, UTG bets, CO folds, NateThaGreat calls


I would probably fold. Tough place to be. You have a runner runner straight draw and two overcards, which may or may not be good. So basically you have 6 outs to pair the turn. So that puts you at around 7-1 to pair the board. The pot is laying 7 1/2-1...but your outs are certainly not clean. I dont know how much value you put in the runner runner straight draw..with a pair on the board. Maybe equal to one out? So I think I would muck here. I dont think you can call anymore bets if you miss the turn. But a call is probably not a huge -EV play.

Turn(4 1/5 BB): T



NateThaGreat checks, UTG bets, NateThaGreat raises, UTG calls


Interesting play. Too bad he didn't fold.



River(8 1/5 BB): 4


NateThaGreat bets ...

Yea the bet is ok...since you have the odds to pray for the fold.

Bubs