I, uh, fold?!? Yeah, I fold!

[DiamondDave]

Kinda loose player opens for a raise UTG. Tight -n- aggressive player sitting on his immediate left makes it three bets. The very next player cold calls with an I-was-gonna-raise-but-now-I-ain't look on his face. Everyone else folds.

I'm in the BB and glance at my cards, just to make sure I don't have a monster. I have AKo and muck it.

My reasons:
1) I think UTG+1 has pocket queens or better AND plays well postflop.
2) UTG+2 has pocket sevens or higher/AK/AQs/AJs.
3) UTG might actually have a hand.
4) I'm gonna be first to act on later rounds.
5) I think the next best alternative to folding is to cap the preflop betting and dark bet the flop.
6) I have a feeling that my pair outs are dead and/or I'm against multiple draws to set trips.

Did I wuss out? Did I make a wise fold? (It's hard for me to tell, because I saw the rest of the hand played out and knowing the results colors my perception of the whole event.)

[SpaceAce]

If you really read UTG+1 for QQ or better and believe there is a good chance of strength in the other two hands, I don't think letting AKo go is such a bad play. Especially if the players' raising and calling standards make it likely that some of your outs are tied up.

Edit: To be fair, I'm not sure I would have laid it down despite what I said.

SpaceAce

[glen]

I am wondering why you put UTG+1 on pocket QQ or better. If the guy plays well like you say, and the UTG raiser is a loose raiser, I would think he would 3 bet very lightly here. . .

[JPolin]

Well from what you say it seems that UTG+1 would reraise with a variety of hands to isolate the UTG raiser. That seems to indicate to me that your AK has a good shot of being the best hand. The cold call from UTG+2 is worrying, but if he had a true monster (like QQ,KK,AA) he would have capped. I'd cap preflop.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Having AK makes it tough for the 3-better to have AA or KK, which is what you're primarily worried about. At least take the flop, it's likely you're good if an A or K flops.

[andyfox]

I'd have folded too. I'd add reason number seven: You have no pair.

I'd discount the possibility that UTG+1 is raising loose just because he knows UTG is kinda loose. UTG+1 still realizes he's UTG+1 and would likely save his looser 3-bets for when he has later position.

[worm33]

I think folding ak here in the bb is giving up way way way too much. You probably have at least one of these players dominated, you might even have the 3 bettor dominated if he has aq. You might have the best hand. Its incredibly likely that you have the best hand if an ace or a king hits. I think capping and dark betting is the worst thing you can do though. Your not winning this pot if you miss. So call pre-flop and checkraise a flop that hits you otherwise check fold. And just because the flop came rags and utg+1 had kk doesnt make your play correct.

[SoBeDude]

I had to read this twice, and I read the other posts.

Given that you've not voluntarily put money in the pot, given that many raising, reraising, and cold-calling hands contain aces and kings, and that you're going to be out of position for the entire hand, I like the fold.

I wish I was a good enough player to make that fold. Maybe this thread will stick with me.

-Scott

[Franchise (TTT)]

I seem to do the opposite of what most of you are doing in this forum.

In that other thread, we were debating about limping after a good player with UTG+1 with KJs, and I was one of the few people saying fold.

Meanwhile, I think I'm one of the few people in this thread that think this should be a pretty easy call situation unless the 3-better is exceptionally tight and would only 3-bet with AA-QQ. If any A or K hits the flop, then it's very likely you're good against most of the hands your opponent will be 3-betting, including AJs-AQs, 88-QQ, KQs even... That and since you're holding AK, the chances of your opponents having AA, KK, and AK go way down.

Your opponents "likely having Aces or Kings in their hands" is not a reason to fold AK. If anything, it should be a reason to call, as they will get trapped for many bets when they hit and you hit, and you won't get trapped when you miss the flop (and probably take one off on the flop if the board is not likely to have make them a set or hit their kicker in their dominated hand.

You have excellent pot odds, you're most likely (very, very) good if you hit, and you have good position to checkraise the flop to clear out the 3rd player if you hit. I think it's a pretty easy call against most opponents.

[SoBeDude]

Your opponents "likely having Aces or Kings in their hands" is not a reason to fold AK. If anything, it should be a reason to call, as they will get trapped for many bets when they hit and you hit, and you won't get trapped when you miss the flop (and probably take one off on the flop if the board is not likely to have make them a set or hit their kicker in their dominated hand.

But you're completely missing an important point. When your opponents likely have cards you need to make your hand, the chance of you actually getting one on the board drop precipitiously. You're likely not drawing to 6 outs here. You may be drawing to 2, 1 or even 0 outs. Given that, your pot odds suck. And you're still out of position.

-Scott

[Franchise (TTT)]

0-2 outs? Not on average.

You might not be drawing to 6 outs, but I'd assume most of the time the average is probably over 5.

You'd play any pocket pair in that position based on implied odds, wouldn't you? What you give up in terms of strength of hand (flopping a set vs flopping TPTK), I think you make up for for the extra times you'll flop a hand.

Your position does suck, but you can still use the 3-better (or the cold-caller) to knock out some people if you flop what you want.

[SoBeDude]

You might not be drawing to 6 outs, but I'd assume most of the time the average is probably over 5.

well since 6 is the MAX you can draw to in this situation, I'm quite sure on average its not 'over 5'.

You'd play any pocket pair in that position based on implied odds, wouldn't you? What you give up in terms of strength of hand (flopping a set vs flopping TPTK), I think you make up for for the extra times you'll flop a hand.

pocket pair? yes. because if you have 66, the chance of someone else playing a 6 is remote. Also, if a 6 flops, a SET has a strong chance to hold up. And its an easy hand to get away from if you miss.

Can't you see how this is entirely different and a much more favorable situation than holding AK in this spot?

BTW, if the AK was sooted, I'd make the call.

-Scott

[Franchise (TTT)]

How come nobody else has anything to say on this?

Besides, you want other people to be drawing to your A's and K's. If you both hit, they're way behind.

[andyfox]

Tight-aggressives don't 3-bet lightly from early position no matter who the UTG raiser is.

[DiamondDave]

'cuz that guy cold-calls an EP raise with JJ/TT/AKo/AQs and re-raises with QQ/KK/AA. I don't know what he does with AKs in that spot, but I know enough to be confident that he's either tied (+flush draw freeroll) or ahead.

[DiamondDave]

...is a really good one.

I am drawing to TP/TK. At least one (and maybe all three) of my opponents are drawing to a set. If I catch a pair on the flop and one of them makes trips, I stand to lose a ton of chips.

Thanks for the feedback, andyfox. I love your posts!

[DiamondDave]

The flop is JJ2. UTG and UTG+1 go crazy. UTG+2 mucks, looking quite disgusted. The turn is a J. UTG bets, UTG+1 calls. The river is a trey. UTG bets, UTG+1 calls.

UTG had QsJs for quads. UTG+1 had QQ. UTG+2 didn't flash his cards and didn't say what he had.

Thanks to all of you for the responses. To those of you who advocated playing my hand, I assure you that I would have gone in against certain opponents. Just not with UTG+1 and UTG+2 being who they are and doing what they did.

[DanZ]

This is an easy fold for 3 cold. So was the KJs early with a good UTG limper in a high stakes game.

But here it's only 2 cold. That's a big difference. Very often you will be drawing to 4 outs for half the pot (aka 2 outs), and sometimes it will be 0-2 outs, but when it's not the case, folding is very bad getting 5.25-1. Your implied odds stink, however, because you won't get a lot of action unless you are beat or tied. You will get some action, like flop round bets and crying calls from KK or a lesser ace, just not a lot of action like a set could generate.

Your position is not that important since you should be ditching the hand on the flop for one bet if you miss and don't have a gutshot or some other draw, like a backdoor nut flush.

Dan Z.

[cjx]

I've gotta play this hand UTG could have a huge range of hands many of which you dominate and UTG+1 may have AA-88 or AKs-AQo which he would also believe he has UTG+1 dominated with, UTG+2 could certainly hold a AKs-ATs additionally some pairs NOT AA, KK, probably not QQ because of his reaction. So, if I had all the time in the world and all the reads you had I'd put loosey on ~KJs/o, isolator on QQ-88 (I like TT personally), annoyed ~AQs he decides to play hoping for a flush to bail him out because he doesn't feel he can outplay UTG+1.

In your position I'd call. If the flop hits me, bet out and see what the field does. Typically assuming only one raises I think I'd like to play back against Loose, fold to tighty solid, and check call unknown. If nothing hits, checking and folding is ok barring a draw (although now I'm not looking so much for the AK as the straight or flush).

cjx

[Diplomat]

I made similar fold on Saturday night. After a while, it almost feels routine. No pair, thin draw, bad position, easy fold.

-Diplomat

[stranglin]

Perhaps I'm not very good, as I just started playing higher limits, but I am confused about one thing. No one has mentioned the fact that even if he calls, it's no guarantee that's all he'll have to pay to get to the flop. Pot's been raised twice and depending on the casino, can be raised once or twice more. That being said, I would still call because I'm not that quick on my feet or good enough to fold good pocket cards.

[tiger1]

I fold. It it weren't for the cold caller it may be a call. Sounds like your either tied, dominated, or drawing thin with AK.

Why the hell would you play any pocket pair for three bets out of position if you know you are up against AT LEAST 1 big pair and you must catch your set on the flop?

Even if you do catch your set you can easily lose on the turn or river or set over set. It will probably get even more expensive on the flop as well with all the action if you want to stay for the turn or catch a drawing flop for your hand.

Question to ask yourself: Would you cold call 3 bets with AKo if you were in late position?

[glen]

Maybe "light" is not the right word, but if one is using QQ as a minimum 3 betting hand, that's clearly not correct. . .

[elysium]

hi dave
good post. you are in crippled out territory but i think you should call if the UTG doesn't look like he's going to 4 bet it and the field behind the EP's are not calling station types that will stay in with anything to the bitter end. you need some reasonable expectation of getting this heads up on the turn if you flop. lacking a field of players who like to see the flop but who then drop unless they they hit the flop solidly, i think you can fold. but i'm not sure about this. personally, i never make this fold. i like to see the flop and then try to out play my opponents. however, a fold in certain situations might be o.k. i think when you have strength up front and calling stations menacing from the rear, the AKo can be mucked for 2 cold pre-flop. not sure though. i think you must get it heads up on the turn if you do decide to play.

[David Sklansky]

It's close. But only because you are in the big blind. You will definitely lose signicant money if you call. But you might average losing a tad less, EV wise than the size of the BB.

[Diplomat]

This is a very good point. I'd hate to see the flop here for 4 or 5 bets, and by that point it is almost manditory that you see the turn, even if you miss (within reason).

-Diplomat

[ike]

This isn't totally true, particularly not when the people with aces and kings started the hand behind. Say you're up against 77, AQ and KJ or something. Getting extra money when you hit is nice, but only having 4 outs to beat the pocket pair is seriously bad.

[DiamondDave]

When the pot is going to get big, offsuit high cards aren't that great. It doesn't matter why the pot is getting big. Maybe it's a loose game, maybe lots of people were dealt pretty cards. Bottom line - people are going to chase, so often it will take a strong hand to win. TP/TK on the flop often comes in second when several players go to the river.

If it had been AKs, I would have played the hand for sure.

[DiamondDave]

In the Bay Area, one bet + three raises = capped action. There is no five-betting in a multiway pot.

Three bets or four bets, it's all good. If I'm in, I'm in and I'm raising. If the question is do I wanna be in for five bets or for three bets, then the information structure in a tough game gets a bit richer, and holdem becomes a bit more interesting. (We play 1 bet & 4 raises in our 1/2 home game.)

Around here, it seems to be "common knowledge" that a "solid player" who calls three cold but does not cap the betting at 4 bets in a pot contested by three of fewer players "must'a had 99 or AK". AQs or JJ would be plausible. A passive guy might play QQ like that. A rookie might play ATs like that. But there seems to be a set of starting hand for which the conventional wisdom is "call three cold but do not cap it".

If certain players call three cold and bet the flop when an ace hits, I know they have either a set or TP/TK. I can safely fold something like QQ. The guessing game I play would become much more difficult they'd only invest one more small bet preflop with hands like AQs.

So, if I play the hand, I cap the betting and lead out on the flop 100% of the time.

So playing this hand in this spot will add little or no EV and a lot of variance.

So I fold.