Majorkong please read this (others too!)

[BottlesOf]

I've thought a lot about recent posts, and wanted to see if you guys love this, or think I've poorly applied Major's advice, about trying to win the bigger pots.



Party Poker 3/6 (10 handed)
Hero has Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and is CO

EP2 limps, MP1 limps, MP2 limps, MP3 limps, Hero(poster) raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, EP2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls

Flop(12 1/3 SB): 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, EP2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls

Turn(10 2/3 BB): Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds

River(13 2/3 BB): 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB checks, MP1 folds, Hero checks

[Mike Gallo]

Bet the river.

[Stu Pidasso]

I think you should fold this one on the flop because:

A)You can be very confident someone has a K
B)You can be confident someone is on a flush draw
C)You cannot be confident your overcard out is clean.

The only clean out you have at the moment(if you can really call it an out)is your backdoor flush draw. Unfortunately you do not have enough of this flop to continue.

Stu

[gonores]

This is the exact sort of value bet I'm talking about in my Random Thoughts post in the General forum. Doesn't this play reek of a weak king or a busted flush draw from your average Party 3/6 player? Are you really a favorite when called?

I like the check.

[JTG51]

You're misapplying the major's advice.

This pot is definitley big enough for the 'put in an extra bet to try to win a big pot' advice to cone into play but that only applies when your extra bets increase your chance of winning. It doesn't in this case. No one is going to fold to your raise since all of the players in the hand have already put one bet in on the flop, and the pot is so big and so multiway that you are unlikely to get better hands to fold on a later street.

[BottlesOf]

[JTG51]

16-1 closing the action with an overcard and a backdoor flush draw sounds like enough to me.

[Mike Gallo]

This smells like more of a flush draw than a weak king.

[gonores]

OK...but unless he has Qd, he's not calling you with a busted flush draw that you are going to beat. What hands could he have here with which he would call you? Prolly any king, a queen (it would almost have to be Qdxd given the way the hand played out), and maybe, just maybe a big 8 or a hand like 99 or TT. A king appears so much more likely than any other hand that's going to call you...I can't see AQ as a favorite when called here.

[dirty_dan]

If the BB wouldn't call a river bet with a busted draw is it right to bet it?

[Mike Gallo]

I dont think he will call with a busted flush draw.

[Mike Gallo]

What hands could he have here with which he would call you?

The poster did not describe the players. However on the turn the poster three bet and the player did not cap. I think a weak King might cap here.

[BottlesOf]

He had 76 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Now, would he have called had I bet????

God, I hope not. But it was a huge pot, and how do we feel about folding for single bets on the river???? (I still fold if I'm him)

[GuidoSarducci]

I dunno... I think he might be cruising to lose to a K here. His BB check/call on the turn screams king with a small kicker, and he's worried about K with a bigger kicker.

Or am I making a mistake here?

[gonores]

three-bet? cap? wah? Turn went: check to the CO, call, call

You've got me lost here Michael.

[Stu Pidasso]

This is the type of hand you can talk yourself into calling or folding. Its easy to say:

[ QUOTE ]
16-1 closing the action with an overcard and a backdoor flush draw sounds like enough to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let examine your outs. The Ace really isn't that good of an out because:

A)The Big Blind may have flopped 2 pair or a set.
B)A middle position player is playing A4 or A8.
C)A middle position player flopped a set and is waiting until the turn to decloak.

Suppose you hit your Ace on the turn and now you have the best hand. How likely is it going to hold up?

A)If someone is on the flush draw they will out draw you 21% of the time on the river.
B)Any flopped pairs will improve to two pair or better on the river another 12%.
C)someone with a pocket pair improves to a set %4.5
D)A gutshot draw comes in 9%

Your Ace is probably only worth 2 outs becuase it may not be good or if it is good on the turn it gets outdrawn on the river at least 25% of the time.

If you put one of the callers on a flush draw, the value of your flush draw decreases quite a bit. I would guess its only worth about ½ an out. This hand probably breaks even around 18-1.

Stu

[JTG51]

But it was a huge pot, and how do we feel about folding for single bets on the river????

I don't think those feelings include the times you have 7 high on the river. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ed Miller]

I would certainly call on the flop, but I wouldn't raise.

When the bet comes from your LEFT, it is not as important to bet and raise to protect your hand. When the bet comes from your RIGHT... that is when you should raise a little light to protect your interest in the pot.

Your TURN bet is definitely good, though.

I know, this poker stuff is complicated sometimes.. hehe. Don't worry... you'll get all this stuff sorted out with some more experience. You'll begin to see patterns and the right play will come naturally. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
If the BB wouldn't call a river bet with a busted draw is it right to bet it?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is only value in a river bet if it gets called. If you bet and they fold you have not gained anything. In this situation, the BB probably does not call you unless he can beat you. A bet here has negative value becuase it will likely cost you more money than it will make.

Stu

[dirty_dan]

Sorry, that was my point. I just neglected to make it. MG had advocated betting the river and I was trying to express my belief that a river bet could only have a negative outcome here.

[JTG51]

It's easy to imagine a situation where Hero is drawing very poorly like you did. It's just as easy to imagine one where our hero has the best hand on the flop, like where BB has, oh maybe 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and everyone else has nothing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Mike Gallo]

You've got me lost here Michael.

Ooppps, I have my posts confused /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
He had 76

Now, would he have called had I bet????

[/ QUOTE ]

No he would not.

Would you have called with your middle pair if he bet out? He might as well, its a nice big pot and he has no chance of winning it with a check.

Stu

[Stu Pidasso]

You should be putting people on ranges of hands and then basing your decisions on them, otherwise your playing poker bingo. Its not unreasonable to put someone on a king and another on a flush draw. The point of my post was to show that if someone has a pair or kings and another has a flush draw, you probably need more than 16-1 to go on because you can make your hand on the turn and still get outdrawn.

What people do is say "Hey I'm getting 16-1 and thats probably enough of an overlay to peel another card off on the turn", when in reality they have no clue of how much an overlay they need to make it correct.

Stu

[JTG51]

You should be putting people on ranges of hands and then basing your decisions on them, otherwise your playing poker bingo.

Thanks, I'll try to keep that in mind in the future.

Its not unreasonable to put someone on a king and another on a flush draw.

No, it's not. If we knew that was the case Hero's hand would win around 10% of the time depending on the liveness of his Aces, which would make the flop decision very close.

Fortunately we are putting our opponents on a range of hands and also thinking about the times that the flop bettor has a draw and the callers have second or third pair, or less, which isn't all that unlikley since they just called. In that case it's an easy, easy call.

What people do is say "Hey I'm getting 16-1 and thats probably enough of an overlay to peel another card off on the turn", when in reality they have no clue of how much an overlay they need to make it correct.

Or they say to fold when they are afraid to make tough decisions.

Gee whiz, taking cheap shots at eachother sure is fun, isn't it?

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
Gee whiz, taking cheap shots at eachother sure is fun, isn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we are taking cheap shots at each other, but rather being tough on each others positions.

To be honest, I'm not sure about my position. But given the way I read the situation I think the pot needs to be laying 18-1 to make a call on the flop correct. I'd like to see where other enlightened members of the poker community put the break even point and why.

Stu

[JTG51]

I don't think we are taking cheap shots at each other, but rather being tough on each others positions.

I read the last paragraph of your previous post as a cheap shot. I must have read more into it than you meant. If that's the case, I apologize.