AA flop decision

[Stu Pidasso]

Party 5-10

I get A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif on the button.

2 limpers, the cutoff raises, and I three bet. Blinds folds and everyone calls. 4 to see the flop and its 13sbs

Flop comes

K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif

the flop action is check, bet, call. What is my correct play?

Stu

[Skater T]

umm... what's the turn card?

[Stu Pidasso]

Whoops, I edited the post to ask what I should do on the flop and not the turn.

Stu

[GuidoSarducci]

raise for information. If it gets capped, you're in trouble.

[JohnShaft]

I'd have to raise Stu.

You have to find out how much people like their hands atm.
Admittedly you might get action from, say, the nut spade.
But if you get played back at strongly you can make your mind up probably on the Turn.

The CO could be raising two limpers with a variety of holdings so you don't even have to hope he has A-Big.

Basically your hand doesn't look like it's getting better, unless you get a perfect non-spade 10. So you have to take control here in case you still do have the best hand. There's just too many potential draws out there.

This is a 3-bettor's hand, and unknown to them, you happen to have about the worst hand possible given the flop. It would be pretty easy to put you on KKK, QQQ.
Keep the pressure on them, and hope you have the best hand, and can get to the River with a couple of bricks.

[JTG51]

I definitely wouldn't raise.

[JohnShaft]

JTG, say you called, and a brick hit the Turn, and it was the same action, would you raise then? Or still Call?

The thing I'd be most worried about here is the EP bettor having flopped two pair. But I'm not sure, if you did raise the flop, if he would play back at you anyway with that. If he was aggressive then I can see calling.

But until a spade hits here I'm not convinced I'm beaten in a 3-bet 4-way pot.

I'm still not sure I don't consider it one of those "bite the bullet" and raise hands. Even though there's a good chance, if you are ahead, you'll get drawn out on.

[MarkD]

This advice is a perfect way to spill chips IMO.

You can't like this flop at all and at least two people ahead of you do. Most players are the most agressive on the flop and they slow down on the turn.

I think this is a clear case of smooth calling the flop and then folding or raising the turn depending what hits. Any hidden hands will be exposed on the turn and you are last to act. Raising the turn is an agressive action, who knows what it will accomplish but if anyone calls I'd be happy to have them check to me on the river.

I'm looking to get to the river cheap on this hand, I don't want to put a bunch more money on it.

[JohnShaft]

I can see how you think that Mark, and you might be right.

But look at it this way. You intend to Raise or Fold the Turn depending what hits? I think I agree with this. (If I was going to call the flop)

But the problem also lies in, if someone does like their hand more than you like yours, you're putting in 2.5 BB's to find out you're beaten, instead of 1BB (or maybe 1.5).

As for them liking their hands, well, in such a big pot, I don't know if a call means that strong a hand.
Sure the guy betting probably doesn't hate the flop, but that doesn't necessarily mean you are beat.

See I'd possibly rather Raise the Flop, Bet the Turn (unless it's real ugly) and then decide to Bet the River if it's another blank.

I think bleeding chips is quite the opposite. To me the most chips you are likely to put in this way is 1.5 BB if you get 3-bet on the flop.
But you could well just be putting in another single small bet. The pot is big. I think I prefer taking a shot at it now, rather than later, when it will be much more expensive to get involved.
And if you are an aggressive player, who isn't seen as a slowplayer, you playing back at them after your PF 3-bet might just make them think twice about what *you* have...

[Indian Ocean]

I think this a clear case of Raise or fold and YOu decided to raise is which is fine. In situation like this I would raise 60% of the time here and fold 40%. You will have to be able to get out if action does get very heavy or it's capped on the flop and someone bet into you on the turn.

There are very few hands that you can with with you AA on that board. Two pair is ofcouse very likely.

I guess JMG51 might be right in this case just by calling..nahhh raise or fold. You raised good job.

[Stu Pidasso]

I made a very quick decision and folded.

I may already be behind, I'm not closing the action, and there really isn't a card that improves my hand. Even if a non-spade 10 rolls off I may only end up chopping the pot. This certainly is not a good board for me.

I don't like raising because I suspect that is what the flop better wants me to do. I don't like calling because It doesn't tell me anything about where I'm at in the hand. Also, calling the flop invites weaker hands to raise the turn.

Anyone else think this fold is good?

I did not note what cards came next but there wasn't any raising on the other rounds. The flop better ended up showing 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and dragged the pot with his flopped flush.

Stu

[Joe Tall]

Call. I'd raise the turn if a blank hits. There was a huge disussion about such a hand right here:

Notice Majorkong's reasoning to call the flop in Hand #1 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=478763&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

Clearly calling is the best play.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Stu Pidasso]

In the example you site, AA is much more likely to be ahead, and much more likely to hold up on the river.

In the hand I played, My AA is much more likely to be behind, and I am much more likely to get outdrawn or chop on the river.

The situations are not comparable.



Stu

[Homer]

Hmmm, it's either call or fold -- my gut feeling is that you should fold. You're getting 15:1, but I'm not sure that's enough to continue with the hand. CO raised after two limpers preflop, but then only called on the flop when a bet came from directly to his right? Smells fishy to me. There's a good chance you're drawing to 1 out, or maybe even runner-runner AJ/AQ/AK since the Ad on the turn could make someone a straight. If you're ahead you're hanging on by a thread, so basically you're either slightly ahead or way behind. If I were to continue with the hand, I'd call the flop, looking to raise a blank turn card, and to fold if a non-blank came or if CO raised before the action got to me, blank or no blank.

-- Homer

[devinthedude]

Stu-

I was quite surprised that noone else advocated a fold here. Two-pair or a set could likely be out already, not to mention the other possiblities the way the PF action went. The fact that there is a bet and a call in front of you already, with one person still remaining to act behind you, with probably zero outs to win the whole pot unless you hit runner runner makes this seem like a pretty good fold IMO.

I can't see the reasoning for raising here. With the bet and the call in front of you, noone is going anywhere on the turn, even if you raise. I might check-call to the river if 2 more bricks come off, but I would probably fold and definitely would not raise here.

[Homer]

I think this a clear case of Raise or fold and YOu decided to raise is which is fine. In situation like this I would raise 60% of the time here and fold 40%. You will have to be able to get out if action does get very heavy or it's capped on the flop and someone bet into you on the turn.

You say you would raise 60% and fold 40%. Is this arbitrary or does it depend on your opponents or what?

Also, why is this a clear case or raise or fold? "This is a raise or fold situation" seems to be one of those expressions that's thrown around a lot, but never explained. Frankly, I think people like to say it to appear aggressive, without fully understanding the situations in which it is a desirable strategy.

-- Homer

[Homer]

Clearly calling is the best play.

I wouldn't go that far. I would say that raising is clearly not the best play.

-- Homer

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 5-10

I get A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif on the button.

2 limpers, the cutoff raises, and I three bet. Blinds folds and everyone calls. 4 to see the flop and its 13sbs

Flop comes

K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif

the flop action is check, bet, call. What is my correct play?

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold quick.

It was raised preflop, meaning that someone flopping two pair or a set is not an impossibility, and you're also looking at a possibly made flush.

You have 3 clean outs, the ten of diamonds, clubs, or hearts to give you the top straight. Ten of spades almost guarantees a flush, and NO ace is a clean out for you because the ace of spades almost guarantees a flush and the ace of diamonds might give someone with a ten the straight.

This of course is all assuming that nobody already has 2 spades.

I'd get out for sure... if there were only 2 spades on the board or if you had a spade it would be a good idea to stick around, but I'm not liking that flop at all.

And let's not even THINK about the unspeakable things someone with ATs could do.

[rigoletto]

If you allways folded in this situation, the EV you give up would be enough to buy you a lollipop by the time you reach retirement.

[chesspain]

Begin weeping, and then fold /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Mike Gallo]

raise for information. If it gets capped, you're in trouble.

I find this a bad idea. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Homer]

Come on MG, it's a raise or fold situation. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Mike Gallo]

Come on MG, it's a raise or fold situation.

I agree with that, however I do not agree with this

raise for information. If it gets capped, you're in trouble.

[Homer]

I agree with that

Oh, man. No way. I think this needs to be discussed more before this thread dies.

[MarkD]

I agree with Homer. This is definitely NOT a raise or fold situation. I really dislike raising, but can see good arguments for just calling and also for folding. Those are the two plays I like the most and without knowing the players at all I would probably call to see what transpired on the turn.

[Homer]

If you allways folded in this situation, the EV you give up would be enough to buy you a lollipop by the time you reach retirement.

So then we should call, right? I mean, it seems that we have two choices:

(1) x + a lollipop

(2) x

Only a damn fool would choose option 2. Lollipops kick ass and I imagine when I'm old I'll still feel the same way. And if not, I can give it to my grandkid or something. And if I don't have any grandkids, I can throw it away. So really, this play is at worst neutral EV. Sure, there's some added variance, but our bankrolls are large enough to not have to be worried about this. Anyhoo, what was my point? Oh yeah. MMMMMMMMMM.....grape lollipops.

-- Homer

[Stu Pidasso]

If the pot had a lollipop in it I most certainly would have called.

Stu

[Homer]

I just had a vision of me dragging a 250 lollipop pot, then starting to eat one and having the dealer tell me, "Sir, stop eating those, they're in play".

Yeah, I'm a moron.