Critical post for many on here

[Clarkmeister]

For those of you constantly paranoid about "giving them odds to chase", and who are reluctant to jam it up early with what figures to be the best hand, please read this post by Sklansky in the General Theory forum today.

http://tinyurl.com/25ujx

[ QUOTE ]
The concept of not giving them correct odds to chase is not simplistic. It only becomes a factor if you have bankroll worries, or if you yourself might fold the next round, or if by not pushing a small edge early, it increases the chances that you will be bet into the next rouund so you can thin out the field. If none of these things are true it is always better, theoretically to push any edge you might have on an early round, even if that gives the opponents the correct odds to chase on the next .

[/ QUOTE ]

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
or if you yourself might fold the next round, or if by not pushing a small edge early, it increases the chances that you will be bet into the next rouund so you can thin out the field.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that it's not simplistic is shown right here.

A) with any hand other than AA, it's certainly possible you'll fold the next round. As your hand gets worse, that possibility increases of course.

B) anytime you raise preflop, the chance you will be bet into the next round lessens, thus decreasing your potential chance to thin the field.

Thus the real debate comes as to where the specific cutoff points are for specific hands/hand ranges in specific situations. But I shant go into THAT here!

If you have bankroll issues then you are just losing money by not pushing those edges when you can.

al

[chesspain]

I guess the central issue comes back to the advice given in HEFAP which states that when the pot is already very large, your primary aim should be to win it, rather than to maximize your long-term EV by increasing the pot size even further.

However, the authors never actually explain why this should be so. Indeed, if we use the paradigm that all of our poker sessions are simply snapshots out of one, very long, lifetime game, then why not always lead your opponents into betting when it is -EV for them, even if this increases the possibility that someone will outdraw you on the river?

Assuming that your bankroll is not so thin that you will be busted out (forever?) by not winning this one huge pot, it would seem one should always encourage others to make mistakes according to the "Fundamental Theory of Poker," even if that lessons the odds of one's winning any particular pot.

I guess I'm more confused now than during the time I was forcing myself to learn about the subtle art of manipulating pot odds /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[PYITE]

What happens when you jam it up early, and the board gets scary though? You have to slow down right? I don't understand why you can't wait till a blank hits on the turn before showing aggression.

A hand I just played...kinda what we're talking about here?

(I don't know if I played this OK, or butchered it)

oober loose table, (PF call is bad, I know!)
***** Hand History for Game 352925257 *****
2/4 TexasHTGameTable (Limit) - Sun Jan 25 12:38:42 EST 2004
Table Card Room Table 3896 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: BatEng ( $120)
Seat 2: Farinhite451 ( $91)
Seat 3: bdk242 ( $191)
Seat 4: bobomurgas ( $79)
Seat 5: dior333 ( $98)
Seat 6: UaBeErBuM ( $90)
Seat 7: yeyvij ( $170.50)
Seat 8: KHomeBoy ( $237.50)
Seat 9: chenso1 ( $40)
Seat 10: PYITE ( $121.50)
PYITE posts small blind (1)
BatEng posts big blind (2)
Farinhite451 posts big blind (2)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PYITE [ 8c, 6d ]
Farinhite451 checks.
bdk242 calls (2)
bobomurgas folds.
dior333 folds.
UaBeErBuM folds.
yeyvij calls (2)
KHomeBoy calls (2)
chenso1 folds.
PYITE calls (1)
BatEng checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ac, 6s, 8s ]
PYITE bets (2)
BatEng calls (2)
Farinhite451 calls (2)
bdk242 raises (4) to 4
yeyvij calls (4)
KHomeBoy calls (4)
PYITE raises (4) to 6
BatEng folds.
Farinhite451 folds.
bdk242 calls (2)
yeyvij calls (2)
KHomeBoy raises (4) to 8
PYITE calls (2)
bdk242 calls (2)
yeyvij calls (2)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5s ]
PYITE checks.
bdk242 checks.
yeyvij checks.
KHomeBoy bets (4)
PYITE calls (4)
bdk242 folds.
yeyvij folds.
** Dealing River ** : [ 7c ]
PYITE checks.
KHomeBoy checks.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $53.50 | Rake: $2.50
Board: [ Ac 6s 8s 5s 7c ]
BatEng balance $116, lost $4 (folded)
Farinhite451 balance $87, lost $4 (folded)
bdk242 balance $181, lost $10 (folded)
bobomurgas balance $79, didn't bet (folded)
dior333 balance $98, didn't bet (folded)
UaBeErBuM balance $90, didn't bet (folded)
yeyvij balance $160.50, lost $10 (folded)
KHomeBoy balance $223.50, lost $14 [ Tc As ] [ a pair of aces -- As,Ac,Tc,8s,7c ]
chenso1 balance $40, didn't bet (folded)
PYITE balance $161, bet $14, collected $53.50, net +$39.50 [ 8c 6d ] [ two pairs, eights and sixes -- Ac,8c,8s,6d,6s ]

[Saborion]

Hmm... let me see if I understand that post.

Unless I think a check or call on the flop might help me thin the field on the turn, a bet or raise on the flop is better when I hold the best hand? Even if this gives the players the correct to odds to chase on the turn? Not sure, but I must`ve missed something. I mean, if I worry about odds to chase etc all the time I`ll never be able to bet/raise. If I think I hold the best hand, the money goes into the pot unless I think I can get someone to bet so that I can make some players pay two bets instead of one. Or, if I think I may not have the best hand but a hand good enough to keep calling, I might bet, knowing that the player to my right will raise and thus, hopefully, limit the field which may improve my chances of winning.

But you mean that some newcomers don`t bet/raise their hands due to fear of making the odds correct for some players to chase on the turn?

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm... let me see if I understand that post.

But you mean that some newcomers don`t bet/raise their hands due to fear of making the odds correct for some players to chase on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Many also don't bet/raise their premium hands preflop either....for the same flawed reasons.

In fact, its a disturbingly common theme on the small stakes forum, which is why I felt it important to call Sklansky's post to everyones attention.

[Saborion]

When I first started posting here, I didn`t raise with JJ or TT pre. Heck, I didn`t always raise with QQ since either an A or a K always came on the board. Now I do play a bit different. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[spamuell]

I guess the central issue comes back to the advice given in HEFAP which states that when the pot is already very large, your primary aim should be to win it, rather than to maximize your long-term EV by increasing the pot size even further. However, the authors never actually explain why this should be so.

I have thought about this too, several times, I even began writing a post questioning this but never finished it. I have seen S&M criticised for this by a few sources, but I've also read others who agree with it (Carson maybe?). Hopefully someone can explain this?

[Mike Haven]

I see you use www.tinyurl.com (http://www.tinyurl.com) to reduce long and cumbersome web addresses like http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=493173&page=0&view=co llapsed&sb=5&o=2&vc=1 to a few letters and numbers like http://tinyurl.com/25ujx
- good idea if you need the link outside twoplustwo.

However, on this site there is a similar but far handier system for doing effectively the same thing.

This is how to use it. (If you know, but choose to use the tinyurl system for other reasons, perhaps this might help someone else.):

When you want to refer others to another page on this forum, as you did with DS's post, go to that post and right-click on the post.

In the window that opens, click on Properties.

In the window that opens, you will see the web address of the page, the url, on the Address(URL) line, starting with http.

Point your cursor at the left downstroke of the h of http.

Hold the left-click down and drag the cursor over the url. This will highlight it in blue. Make sure every letter and number of the url is highlighted.

Let go of the held-down left-click.

Point your cursor at the highlighted url and right-click.

In the window that opens left-click on Copy.

Go to the Post window.

Write your Post: say, "Look at this page: "

Left-click after the colon to position your cursor where you want the url to appear.

Click on URL in the Instant UBB Code box below the Post window.

A new window will appear with a highlighted "http://" showing.

Press Delete on your keyboard. The highlighted http:// will disappear.

Point your cursor into the text input line in the window and right-click.

Left-click on Paste in the new window that has appeared. That puts the copied url into the text input line. Left-click OK.

The text input line changes to show the words "web page", highlighted. Press Delete on your keyboard.

Type, say, the words "click here". This enters those words into the text input line. Click OK.

That's it - you will see the code entered into the Post window, and when you preview the post you will see:

Look at this page: click here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=493173&page=0&view=co llapsed&sb=5&o=2&vc=1)

or, better,

Look at this page: Sklansky's post in General Forum (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=493173&page=0&view=co llapsed&sb=5&o=2&vc=1)

I hope this helps you, or someone. It only takes about five seconds to do, in total, once you get used to it.

[winky51]

I think bet the best hand. Ok lets say one on one you have KK and an opponent has 99. You are a favorite by far. he has to draw a 9 without you drawing a K.

Now if there are other players in the field, lets say 4 total, you now have to face several smaller pairs that have the potential of making trips or 2 pair over you. Why not bet and scare them off. Most people will fold on the turn if they don't get anything. The more that fold the better it is for you. Also other players don't know what you have. There have been times where I have lets say KJ and a Q flops and I still bet scaring of those with A5 or A9.


Now lets say your opponents are all going after straights or flushes and it would have to be a lot. Then maybe checking on the flop and betting on the turn is better not giving them pot odds. Most of the time I have a straight or flush draw the flop call is correct pot odds. But when the betting on the turn it is usually 50/50. So by not beting on the flop with top pair then on the turn the pot is smaller to your bet. But then of course you have to realize you opponents are going for straights.

I have been only been playing online for 12 days. Poker for a month so if I sound silly please excuse.

Al

[colgin]

Clark,

I had seen David's post earlier this weekend on the General Theory board, thought it was quite important and am glad you linked to it here. I was afraid I was the only one who thought that this pot manipulation concept in limit, while perhaps applicable in some situations, was getting taken too far and possibly causing too many people not to bet their best hands.

My reasoning is as follows.

If you have a big hand like pocket Aces and it ends up multiway with a big pot (for example, 4-5 players for three bets each) I am not all that worried about one player (perhaps even two) getting proper odds to chase their gutshot draw or whatnot the rest of the way. Sure, all things being equal I would of course prefer them to not be getting proper odds to chase but I am less worried about that than giving away a free (or cheap) card on the flop that could lose me the pot. In these hands you usually had a few weak limpers who came in with real junk and then got trapped for multiple bets. Even if someone is getting proper odds, certainly not all 4 or 5 players are in these situations. All those players are still paying you off (they also may be paying off the gutshot with the just correct calling odds but that's OK.) If the gutshot draw occasionally hits its straight so what? You should be thrilled to have a hand like JTo, for example, trapped for 3 bets pre-flop even if you are not making additional additional money off it post-flop because it is now getting proper pot odds to continue to draw. That hand has already paid you off big time by seeing the flop for 3 bets. What I don't want to do is let others drawing thin pick up a stronger draw with a free or cheap card when I could bet or raise.

If my thinking here is flawed I would appreciate soemone pointing it out to me so I can reevaluate my play.

Colgin

[JTG51]

You beat me to it Clarkmeister. I bookmarked Sklansky's post when I saw it yesterday planning on brining it up here the next chance I got.

Hopefully this will kill some of the "I checked behind on the flop because I didn't want people with gutshots to have the correct odds to call" posts.

Maybe there should be a critically misunderstood S&M concepts post here on small stakes. The post where Mason said that it is in fact correct to raise AQo after limpers should be next on the list. I tried to find that one recently but couldn't.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully this will kill some of the "I checked behind on the flop because I didn't want people with gutshots to have the correct odds to call" posts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I never thought this was an issue on the flop, only on VERY SPECIFIC preflop situations. I doubt I have ever even considered this post flop. I shant start now, cuz that's mostly BS. When I have a hand on the flop, money will be going into the pot, regardless of potential pot odds on the turn.

al

[dirty_dan]

What about waiting to raise the turn if a blank hits? In an unraised pot you flop TPTK with a 2 suited flop with a few opponents. If there isn't much action I'll occasionally flat call with the intent of raising the turn if the flush doesn't hit. The primary reason is to try to win extra when I'm good and save a bet when I might be beat. But a secondary effect is that the pot stays small, possibly giving my drawing opponents incorrect odds to see the river.

Is this a mistake?

[Al_Capone_Junior]

It's going to be pretty rare that a large difference will occur in your opponent's pot odds on the turn because of your choice of actions on the flop. Despite this, there are times when I might choose to just call the flop instead of raising, with the intention of raising the turn to force people out. It's not the pot odds that make the difference, it's the likelyhood of being bet into on the turn that makes the difference, assuming your choice was whether to RAISE the flop or not.

What I was more referring to was the option to check the flop, rather than betting, in order to keep the pot odds down, which is what the referred to post, and the general conversation was about, preflop play and checking rather than raising with good hands. I realize my post that you replied to may not have clarified this sufficiently.

al