Following Majorkong's posting advice....QQ in a huge pot

[Griffin]

Normally I put my thoughts and questions into the hand history, but starting with this hand I'll follow Majorkong's advice and present the history as unbiased as possible. Feel free to comment on my flop action, but I am really interested in what you would do on the turn and why.

2/4 table, 9 handed. Here are my reads:
EP1 - overaggressive with 2nd best hands, bluffs when scare cards hit, plays too many hands and stays for too long
EP2 - plays good hands, talking "coach" talk with Button but not directed at any specific player
Button - ditto to EP2


I'm CO with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG limps, EP1 raises, EP2 coldcalls, folded to me, I 3-bet, button calls 3 cold, SB calls 2.5, BB calls 2, UTG calls 2, EP1 calls, and EP2 calls. Seven to the flop for 3 sbs each.

Flop (20 sb): 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, EP1 checks, EP2 bets, I ...

I raise, Button coldcalls, sb coldcalls, bb coldcalls, utg coldcalls, EP1 3-bets, we all call. Seven to the turn for 3 sbs each.

Turn (20 bb): J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Sb checks, BB checks, utg checks, ep1 checks, ep2 bets, I ....

Do you fold, call, or raise? Why?

[whiskeytown]

....I think I have to muck here...

you were checkraised on the flop by EP1, and despite that, EP2 still bet the turn - in this situation, I can't see you less then 2nd best hand to EP2, who probabaly has a K - EP1 with your description is probably just pushing something he doesn't have...but 7 players....a better straight out on the turn....feels like Kx to me...KQ maybe - I'd let it go and not kick myself too badly but if I had been doing that a lot at this table, I'd probably check call to the river unless I saw another check raise on the turn.

but that's my two cents...

RB

[Mike Gallo]

Your drawing dead to KK, an unlikely holding for EP2. However he could have AK clubs or KQ clubs. The pot offers you 21 to 1, if EP2 will pay you off if you hit your 23.5 to shot than you can call. If you think 2 of the players still involved will call then you can call.

You might only have a 45 - 1 shot if the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif is a tainted out or your opponent holds it. If someone has a four flush along with a King then you should fold.

Ok to recap against AK offsuit K10 offsuit AA or AQ clubs continue. Against KK or AK clubs fold. Against 7 7 or 5 5 continue. I would most likely call in that spot and fold to a check raise.

What range of hands do you think your opponent has at this point? Would he push the draw that hard?

[Griffin]

MG,

Thanks for a detailed reply. I agree that it's very unlikely I'm up against KK as anyone holding that would have capped preflop or on the flop. I specifically put EP2 on AK as I don't think he would just call a raise with anything else.

If someone has a four flush along with a King then you should fold... Against...AK clubs fold

I'm confused by this. Why do you add the King requirement to the four-flush? If any one of my 6 opponents is holding any two clubs it reduces my outs to one. Given that I am behind at the moment to EP2's King, if one of the calling-stations showed me his hand (let's say it's T/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif) then folding is correct, right? Your reply makes it sound like I should only be concerned if I'm shown 2 clubs with a K.

On a related note, I folded to EP2's turn bet because I discounted my Q/images/graemlins/club.gif out as dirty. I considered the fact the 4 players cold-called a flop raise as evidence that someone was chasing a flush. I knew I didn't have the odds to chase to one out.

In general, is it correct to not count outs that might be dirty?

[Griffin]

Thanks RB,

I did muck to the turn bet, but not because I was 2nd best. I folded because I felt like I only had one clean out without the odds to chase it. It's possible that an AT or T9 is out there to make both my outs dirty, but I was more afraid of any two clubs.

I need to figure out the correct way to factor potentially dirty outs into the odds/outs equation.

[Mike Gallo]

On a related note, I folded to EP2's turn bet because I discounted my Q out as dirty. I considered the fact the 4 players cold-called a flop raise as evidence that someone was chasing a flush. I knew I didn't have the odds to chase to one out.

Pretty much my point.

In general, is it correct to not count outs that might be dirty?

Depends on how accurately you can put your opponents on a hand. If you knew for certain that someone had the flush draw, then you cannot consider that an out.

For this hand I also think you had a 45-1 shot.

[Ed Miller]

Your flop raise was a mistake. The pot is too big at that point... raising won't get anyone to fold (as you noticed). Furthermore, it builds a big pot with a very marginal hand. You should just call. Wait to see what comes on the turn and consider raising at that point.

On the turn... umm... sucks to be you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Pot's enormous... I'd probably just put in the money. The problem is that you have essentially NO READ. Someone could have a king... sure. But who knows? People are cold-calling in an enormous pot. God knows what they have... I guarantee you that they don't ALL have kings. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Your big error was raising the flop. That's what brought about this turn conundrum.

[Ed Miller]

For this hand I also think you had a 45-1 shot.

I think he probably is a 45-to-1 dog as well. That alone does not mean he should fold, though. Why?

[Mike Gallo]

That alone does not mean he should fold, though. Why?

Do you mean name another reason he should fold or do you mean thats not enough reason to fold.

Excuse my stupidity however my brain feels fried. I just got home from playing a session at the Borgata. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Well I think that he most likely has to hit a 45:1 shot to win the hand. However someone could have two pair and someone has a King. Perhaps nobody has the flush draw. The pot has grown quite large, and when the pots big its better to err in calling then folding.

[Norm]

[ QUOTE ]


I think he probably is a 45-to-1 dog as well. That alone does not mean he should fold, though. Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably may mean 90% probability. He may have best hand 10% of the time, and if a blank hits, it will hold up. And he has good pots odds for that possibility, especially when combined with the odds that the good Q falls.