omaha h/l is the low worth a chase [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Buzz

01-24-2004, 08:28 PM

“I was wondering late in a try is the low worth chasing.When the blinds are up to 3000/6000 lets say u got a279 and the flop is 45k. Would the odds be good enough to call a raise with.lets say u had 20000 in chips.”

Cowboybud - Is "try" short for tournament?

Assuming it is, I’m wondering how you got yourself into this predicament. You haven’t indicated the suitedness of your hand. Let’s assume you hold Ac-2c-7h-9d. That’s a decent hand for a full ring game, but I don’t think it’s a very good hand for one-on-one play. The reason is that it lacks high card strength. Holding A279, regardless of the number of opponents, you should expect to qualify for low less than half the time, 49.52%, and make the nut low less than one quarter of the time, 22.75%. This is a hand that wants as many opponents before the flop as possible.

Late in a tournament, you’re likely to be one-on-one with a single opponent. You're asking a question about the second betting round. What happened on the first betting round?

In any event, your object should be to scoop. You want to play cards that have a chance to scoop and you want to play them so as to give yourself the best possible chance to scoop.

But okay, you’re asking about chasing for low after the flop.

(As I think about this, it’s very confusing, because I don’t know if you’re facing a double bet, which would mean you have more than one opponent, or if you initially bet and were subsequently raised).

It would be nice to know how much money is in the pot already, and to know for sure if you are facing just one opponent. How is it you’re facing a raise? Did you initially bet this flop, perhaps hoping to steal the pot?

Let’s assume you posted the big blind, a player in mid position limped, the small blind folded, and you checked on the first betting round. (That seems poor play to me (too passive), but in the absence of information......)

Whoever raised is either bluffing or has a nice fit with the flop. If you’re one-on-one, and if your opponent has a good fit with this flop, you’re probably going to be forced “all-in” here. If you have more than one opponent, it is even less likely the raiser is bluffing. (However, if you have a reputation for tight/weak play, you’re a set-up for a bluff here).

But okay, you’re asking about chasing for low after this flop. I’ll just calculate your chances to make the nut low. Any three, six, seven, or eight, will give you the nut low, but if you also catch an ace or deuce, you’ll be counterfeited and won’t have the nut low (but you’ll still have a low). The probability of your making the nut low before the river is 465/990, or about 47%. So roughly a bit less than half the time you’ll end up with the nut low after this flop, assuming you see both the turn and the river. Actually, your hand also has some high potential, and you might make a non-nut, but winning low. Taken all together, I estimate you’ll survive three times out of five if you chase and the other two times out of five you’ll be on the rail.

The above considered, I think you fold here, especially if you plan to never see these players again. However, if you do expect to encounter these players again, you might consider your image. Folding here is considered a "weak" play, especially if you bet initially. In other words, if you fold here, expect to have more bluffs thrown at you in the future.

You avoid this predicament by (1) playing aggressively and building a reputation for tough (rather than weak) play, and (2) by not playing cards that would be a good starting hand in a multi-opponent situation - but that are not a good starting hand when you are likely to be facing only one opponent.

As to your question, "Would the odds be good enough to call a raise with.lets say u had 20000 in chips," I don't know how to figure pot odds (nobody does) without knowing how much is already in the pot.

Just my opinion.

Buzz