Stuck, stuck bad, stuck hard, but above all stuck

[slavic]

Live B&M 4/8

3 of the 10/20 regulars are in this game waiting for a must move to form. Suprisingly we are in our typical seats. 6 players are calling stations. Really about as loose passive as you will ever see. Amazing really. Phenominal.

I'm UTG with T /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I open raise, EP (CS) calls, MP(CS) calls, MP2 3 bets (loose Agg and straight forward PostFlop), folds to SB who calls, and the BB (tight, agg, and for the most part non tricky) caps it. I know I have trouble at this point but I call getting 11 to 1, all call.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, bb calls, now my action

I'm pot stuck for a set, but given the BB's move is a fold reasonable? (I have never seen him cap AKo)

[chesspain]

This looks like an easy fold. Indeed, not even considering what the cold callers might have, unless MP2 and BB were both firing away PF with hands like 99 and AJs (which is highly improbable given your descriptions of them), how likely is it that you hand is good right now? In fact, I would not be surprised if BB just smoothcalled the flop in order to reraise MP3, in which case you would need to be folding anyway, so why waste another SB when it is extremely likely that your hand is no good.

I know it sucks to muck after you capped preflopped, but you need to live to fight another day.

[Mike Haven]

against five totally random hands you will win played out hands 18.5% of the time from here (an average hand would win 16.7% of the time)

although you can't say there are five totally random hands out against you here you could probably check-call for a profit in a very passive game, because there is already a 12 sb pot in the middle

[chesspain]

Mike,

Can you get me into this game of which you speak where players raise and cap preflop with random hands? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Mike Haven]

hmmm

good point

forget my totally random comments

slavic caught me with his dumb trick question /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[colgin]

You are almost certainly behind here as I am sure you know. It seems, however, that you are getting more than sufficient pot odds to draw to your set on the next card. A few problems that I see are as follows: if MP2 (loose aggr.) raises you will be facing at least one more bet (and possibly more if SB or BB re-raises) so your effective odds for your draw here may be much worse than they at first seem; you could very well be drawing almost dead to a set of Kings or Queens; finally, with all the calling stations in the hand I am not sure you can totally discount hands like AJ(suited or not) or J9s, in which case spiking your ten is also no good. I guess my decision would depend to a good extent on how likely I thought it was that there would be a raise behind me. "Is a fold reasonable?" as you ask. Yes, it is reasonable, although I could see calling here. On the information you have given I would fold. Then again, I am weak tight (but working hard to change).

[slavic]

I pitched in 1 SB and everyone just called. Did I mention all the passive players?

Turn was a J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Giving a board of:

K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I'm decently certain I'll have to call a double bet now from the BB.

The SB wimps out and checks, you can see the frustration as the BB bets. I call and all call again.

River 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB checks, BB checks, I bet, only the BB calls.

Sure enough he had top set KK

[mosch]

Against 5 opponents playing random hands from S&M's group 1 and 2, he has a 12.5% chance of winning... I like to fold.