A Turn decision

[Brian]

Party 3/6. I am pretty new to the table, so I haven't been able to really pick up any reads. The only hand I have seen MP play so far (and I've been here for about 1 orbit) was AA. He raised it pre-Flop then check-raised it on the Flop with 2 opponents on a QTT board.

I am in EP and dealt Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG limps and I limp as well. MP raises, all fold to the BB who calls. The rest of us call as well. 4 to the Flop for 8sb.

Flop: 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Everyone checks to MP who bets, BB and UTG call, and so do I. 4 to the Turn for 12sb (6bb).

Turn: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB and UTG check, I bet. MP raises, BB and UTG fold. Your play?

-Brian

[EDIT]: Also, do you make a crying call on the River if you do not improve?

[BottlesOf]

I think I'm just calling him down. He's seen you bet this Q. He's probably not putting you on a straight, but a Q with a decent kicker, and he doesn't seem to be bugged by it. We think this guy is ok, as we have seen nothing to indicate otherwise (yet). There are a lot of hands where you good be ahead, and a lot of heads where you're drawing real thin.

And yes, I want a showdown.

[BigEndian]

Looks like you're up against AQ at best if he's a vanilla player. The pot is big enough to call down though. So, call the turn, check-call the river unimproved. If you improved to a big hand on the river, you might think about a check-raise, but I would bet out.

- Jim

[J.R.]

I would call getting 9-1 having 7 likely outs (four Ts, three Js) and perhaps 2 more Q outs. The probable range of MP's hands that your are behind to are AQ, AA, KK, QQ, KQs, or possibly 99, assuming reasonable preflop raising standards.

The river is a tougher play if a blank falls as a turn call means you will be getting 11-1 to check-call on the river. The flop check-raise in the prior hand seems to indicate the opponent can be tricky, but this turn raise appears straightforward. I would reluctantly check-call a blank on the river hoping for something like AK, JJ or TT if I did not improve.

[Ed Miller]

You call on the turn.

You should probably bet the flop, though.

[biggambler]

You have an inside straight draw. Why bet the flop?

[BottlesOf]

Wouldn't a check on this flop be good, if we have already shown that we like to check raise flops? Somewhere in HPFAP S+M say something like "you should be checking many flops." What do you think of this?

[Ed Miller]

You have an inside straight draw. Why bet the flop?

You tell me. What good might betting the flop do?

[Ed Miller]

You have a consistent problem. It is that you look to save bets in raised and multiway pots when you should be trying to win them.

[Tosh]

I'd probably call this down.

I would also have bet the flop for 2 reasons.

1) MP will possibly raise out the rest of the field.
2) There is a chance to throw MP off overcards.

[biggambler]

Well, if you hit a queen you have a pair of queens with a jack kicker 3 OUTS.
If you hit a Jack you have a pair of Jacks with a Queen kicker 3 OUTS.
If you hit a ten you have a straight. 4 OUTS.
Also a back door flush 2 OUTS.
12 outs total!

[BottlesOf]

That may be, and I see how your advice here is essentially the same point that you make in the famous "you fold too much" point you made in micro-limits, and while I agree with you, you haven't really addressed my point.


The fact of the matter is that in HPFAP, S&M offer advice that could point to check/callng the flop.

p. 63: There are three situations where check/calling are correct....The second situation is when you are fairly sure that your opponent has a better hand and will not fold if you bet, but the pot odds justify your calling in the hope that either you have the best hand or you may outdraw your opponent.

Now I'm not saying check/call is right in brian's hand, but I would like to hear why you feel the bet is better in this particular situation, and hopefully, plug my leak.

Also, is 8 sb's enough to be considered a "big pot?"

[brian0729]

Betting here will give MP a chance to raise you and hopefully shut out the other two opponents, improving your chances to win. Plus you hand has a lot of ways to improve on the turn

[BottlesOf]

Ah, now this may be a reason I can get my teeth into. So I bet, not just to freeze up the pf raise, but also, if he does raise, I get it hu and thus, significantly improve my chances.

[Ed Miller]

Having 12 outs is not a reason to bet. Reasons to bet include things like:

1. To get more money in the pot
2. To get certain hands to fold

BTW, I would not assess your hand as having "12 outs". Overcards are almost never worth 3 full outs because you are beaten so often even when you spike your pair. Likewise, there is a two-flush on board... you might lose if one of your "outs" comes as a club. This is not to say that you should ignore those outs either... just discount their value.

[Ed Miller]

Your quoted advice assumes you are heads-up. Here, you are not heads-up. Do you understand why the distinction is important?

May I refer you to the advice where they suggest that you bet T9 on a K76 (or something like that) board. Sorry, I've loaned out my copy of HPFAP so I can't tell you exactly where that occurs.

[Ed Miller]

Ah, now this may be a reason I can get my teeth into. So I bet, not just to freeze up the pf raise, but also, if he does raise, I get it hu and thus, significantly improve my chances.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

You also improve your chances to take the pot with a bet on fourth street even if you do not improve.

[biggambler]

This simple hand has been quite instructive.

[BottlesOf]

Oooohhh, I think you're right. I am going to start re-reading this text tonite, paying special attention to the number of opponents in each example, as I think I may have mis-read some of this.

Thanks Major.

[BottlesOf]

I think I'm starting to see the light, and will be able to plug a leak in thime. However, I am a little concerned I may go to far to the other extreme, and start firing bets into pots with 2 or 3 opponents, when I don't have the best hand, and end up bleeding money recklessly....

[chesspain]

I think that they were referring to the concept of checkraising the flop with close to 50% of your good hands, so as to try to scare your opponents into checking it through on those hands that you check which are not so good.

[Ed Miller]

However, I am a little concerned I may go to far to the other extreme, and start firing bets into pots with 2 or 3 opponents, when I don't have the best hand, and end up bleeding money recklessly....

I doubt it... it's hard to bet the flop too much. You start getting into "playing too aggressive" territory when you get in a raising war with a marginal made hand against someone who clearly has you beat.

Firing one bet on the flop with a draw, even a weak one, is almost never a big mistake if the pot was raised before the flop.

[BottlesOf]

Right. wouldn't this be one of those hands that isn't "so good," thus the pf raise might check behind and give you a free chance to improve?

But as Major pointed out, there are some compelling reasons to bet this. (Namely, we're dealing with a multiway pot.)

[CrackerZack]

Actually, it says, you should be checking many turns, not flops.

[brian0729]

JT has mentioned this before and I am/was the same way. You learn the basics, you get semi decent, then become a little weak tight, then wake up and figure that isnt right and go to the maniac end of the spectrum, then hopefully you find a nice balance in the middle and become good. Im not saying this is the evolution of everybody but it seems to be a normal pattern for some.

[BottlesOf]

[Ed Miller]

Actually, if I were heads-up against the raiser, I would probably go ahead and try a check-raise semi-bluff with this hand.

I think you are fundamentally underestimating the strength of a gutshot with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw. Your hand is as strong as many open-ended straight draws for sure.

[BottlesOf]

I think you are fundamentally underestimating the strength of a gutshot with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw. Your hand is as strong as many open-ended straight draws for sure.

You are absolutely right, I have never considered this. This has been officially toggled as a favorite post. Thank you majorkong and thanks everyone else.

[Brian]

Hi Bottles,

The section of HPFAP that MK is referring to can be found on pages 167-168. It is in the chapter "When The Pot Gets Big." Also, here is a link to a recent thread which explores this concept in more detail:

15/30 masterpiece (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=484191&page=2&view=ex panded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=)

-Brian

[BottlesOf]

Thanks, Brian. Altohugh I would note that the HPFAP has 6 opponents, whereas in your hand, you have 3. Do you think the difference in pot size in these two cases make this principle a little less applicable in your case?

[Brian]

Hi Bottles,

Well, I didn't bet the Flop in this hand, so I am not sure if I am the one you should be asking. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Also, I am not sure how many opponents there are in the hypothetical T9 hand; they never say. I would think that the concept would apply to most raised multiway pots, though.

-Brian

[BottlesOf]

Ok let me ask this: Does two opponents qualify as multiway?

[el_grande]

That's a good question. I always thought of multiway meaning 4 or more opponents preflop.

Flop and after, I assumed multiway was 3 or more opponents.

These numbers coming from the number of opponents necessary to give you good betting odds with the common drawing hands (OE straight or 4-flush).

[Ed Miller]

Ok let me ask this: Does two opponents qualify as multiway?

Trying to nail down the specific meaning of terms is not what you need. You need to understand the underlying concepts.

Winning poker is not played by flowchart. "Is the pot multiway?" if yes, then blah... if no, then blah. Winning poker means understanding basic concepts, like "as the pot gets bigger, it is more important to x" or, "betting can increase your chances to win... which is more important to do under y conditions."

Understand all the competing concepts for every poker situation and then evaluate in your mind which ones are most applicable to your particular situation. Yes, in HPFAP the example might be six people, not three. Yes, in HPFAP the example gives you a weaker hand (there is an overcard on the flop). But the underlying CONCEPT is still the same... it's your job to figure out how well it applies to each situation.

This is not easy. This is why you need to post hand after hand. See how poker theory applies to each situation. After a while, you will begin to see patterns... you will recognize similar situations. You won't need hard rules about how many players "multiway" is or how many bets "big" is.

[BottlesOf]

Got it. At this point I thought I had the underlying concepts down, but I need to have some idea of what the terms mean so I can go about evaluating whether analogus examples apply. If I don't understand what terms mean, it makes it that much more difficult to evaluate what I'm reading. There may not be a hard and fast rule for what is or isn't "multiway." But I need to have some vague idea. And I think I can figure it out...

[el_grande]

[ QUOTE ]

Winning poker is not played by flowchart. "Is the pot multiway?" if yes, then blah... if no, then blah.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the first time I realized this was when I was learning what to play preflop. I was trying to memorize the S&M hand groups and then trying to remember which groups to play where. I think this method of learning SUCKS! It was taking me forever.

So instead I learned what types of hands are good in what types of situations, which hands are danger hands, etc. Then if I was curious about a specific hand I would study how to play that particular hand under different conditions. This is a much better way of learning because you understand the value of the hand itself and you can apply it to different situations.

[BaronVonCP]

Text says you should be checking the turn with many of your stronger hands (attempting to check raise) so you can get more free cards when you semi bluff the flop, checking the turn when you miss.

[BottlesOf]

P. 199 of HPFAP:

"In a regular ring game when first to act in a two or three handed pot, the proper strategy is to check many of your hands on the flop. There are many reasons to do this as we have already mentioned, with the simplest reason being that at least one of your opponents is likely to have something worth betting."


I made a longer post about this a few hours ago in a separate thread, if you're interested...

[Gonzoman]

Long time lurker, first time poster. Just wanted to say that threads like this are what make this a great forum and all of us better players.

[BottlesOf]

Glad my confusion could help someone /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Welcome to the fourms. Definitely participate, you'll learn a lot. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
Also a back door flush 2 OUTS

[/ QUOTE ]

A backdoor flush hits about 4% of the time, the equivalent of 1 out with two cards to come.

[anatta]

Brian got 11:1 on the flop. By betting the flop, you are hoping increase your chances of winning the pot, but you reduce your odds to 10:2 or 5:1 if you get raised by the preflop raiser (PFR) and get headsup. If you clean up 6 outs, you increase your chances of winning by almost 25%. This is huge in a decent sized pot like this. Also, if you just get called on the flop, you might win with a turn bet.

If the PFR raises the flop, in order to significantly increase your chances, you have this parlay:

1. The pre-flop raiser raises (or folds) flop with AK. I fold AK here unless I had the Ace of clubs. Many players would raise any AK here. We don’t know if this guy is that type. If he has AA, KK or QQ, hitting a Q or J isn’t any help, but rather usually costs a crying call at the river. AQ, AJ and JJ give ½ as many outs.

2. The players behind must fold a hand which has a better Q or J, has QT for a gutshot. If they have an open-ender like JT (or T7 /images/graemlins/smile.gif) or a flush draw they are coming. If they are loose clueless players, they are coming too. If they have a big hand or draw, you might get three-bet.

There are other considerations. You might get a club to fold which has redraws if you hit your hand with a club. I already mentioned the flop might just get called, and a bet on the turn wins it. This depends largely on how many players called the flop bet, but if all called like in the original hand, I don’t think its very likely. Moreover, you want callers if you make the nuts on the turn or river, this won’t happen if they fold the flop. Also, an ugly card (a club) might come on the turn, costing you more to get away from the hand.

I think if the pot were a little bigger (i.e. 3 bet preflop) or if my draw was a little stronger (no club flush draw), or if PFR was a LAG, I would lien towards betting the flop. As it stands, I think I would just take one off on the flop and see what the turn brings and make a decision whether to continue or fold.

[bernie]

firing into pots with good draws and tactical spots is far from reckless. if you only bet most of the time when you have the 'best' hand, you will be giving up too much info when you are betting/raising the flop.

b

[ZeeJustin]

I would check raise the turn. I'm surprised no one has suggested this yet.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
A backdoor flush hits about 4% of the time, the equivalent of 1 out with two cards to come.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually this is kinda controversial. Abdul and others have many posts on this in the archives. Some players count it as 2 outs because you know on the turn if you pick up the flush draw, so it less expensive than other draws. It's actually somewhere between 1 and 2 outs.

http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&threadm=3a31e107.0303131615.c737df2%40posting.go ogle.com&rnum=1&prev=/groups%3Fq%3Dbackdoor%2Bflush%2Bdraw%2Bouts%2Bgrou p:rec.gambling.poker%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26group%3Drec.gambling.poker%26selm%3D3a31e107.0 303131615.c737df2%2540posting.google.com%26rnum%3D 1

[Brian]

I called down the raise. The River was a blank and I check-called. He had AA.

-Brian

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
As it stands, I think I would just take one off on the flop and see what the turn brings and make a decision whether to continue or fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I like this analysis.

There are a lot of differences between this hand and the one in HEFAP. There is no Ace on the flop, there is a good chance your bet will be raised, (it's unlikely to get better hands to fold if it isn't) and the flush draw.

HEFAP specifically mentions "The general concept is that if an ace comes and you have the upper end of the gutshot you should usually bet to prevent overcards...". See page 168-169.

[anatta]

I didn't know some thought it was better than one out. I see Carson replied that its closer to one, admitting a mistake in his book where he counted it as two.

I see the point that you can fold on the turn if you miss, but isn't that countered by the need to call on the turn to hit? Isn't this why Sklansky says (I dont know where) you need 30:1 on the approx 25:1 backdoor flush draw if this is the only chance you have to win. 30:1 is worse than a one outter! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
I would check raise the turn. I'm surprised no one has suggested this yet

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about this last night. If I had AA here, and I bet the turn, and there was a caller or two, and then <<BAM!!>> I got checkraised, I would put the raiser on JT and strongly consider mucking unless I had a big club. I like it.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
but isn't that countered by the need to call on the turn to hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't think so, you just picked up a very strong draw on the turn if you catch. Plus if you catch on the river you beat the guy drawing for his backdoor straight draw, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[ QUOTE ]
you need 30:1

[/ QUOTE ]

I never heard that. I've heard you need ~15:1 if you are drawing to a 3-card straight and flush draw. Say JdTd with 1 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and a 9 on the flop. But with that you would be picking up a 9 outer on the turn with the flush, where your straight might only be a 6-outer.

[anatta]

It might have been me who said 15:1 in Bob T's effective odds quiz! /images/graemlins/smile.gif I took 30:1 and divided it in half for two backdoors. Look at the bottom of this post cut from my notes, I should have used 27:1 and divided by 2...


Re: Common Odds
Posted By: Dynasty
Date: Monday, 27 May 2002, at 1:04 a.m.
In Response To: Common Odds (slim)

1)flopping 4 flush 11%
When holding two suited cards, the odds of flopping a four-flush are 8.1:1
The 8.1:1 odds are why you can't play "any two suited cards" like J4s. You need to have either straight posibilities or high card value as well.
2)flushing by river (if u flopped 4 flush)
The odds of hitting one or two of your flush suit by the river are 1.9:1
3)gutshot draw
If you flop a gutshot straight draw, the odds of making your straight by the river are 5:1
4)open end draw
If you flop an open-ended straight draw, the odds of making your straight by the river are 2.2:1
5)flopping a set
When holding a pocket pair, the odds of flopping a set are 8.3:1.
When holding a pocket pair, the odds of flopping either a set, full-house, or quads are 7.5:1 12%
6)making a full house after flopping a set
When holding a pocket pair and flopping a set, the odds of making at least a full-house by the river are 2:1.
7)flopping 2 pairs
When holding two cards of different ranks, the odds of flopping two-pair are 49:1.
The 49:1 figure here is a key reason why you can't play "any two cards".
8 )making full house after flopping 2 pair
When holding two cars of different ranks and flopping two-pair, the odds of making at least a full-house by the river are 5:1.
9)backdoor flush
The odds of completing a backdoor flush are 23:1. David Sklansky has written that you need 27:1 pot odds to call a flop bet with just a backdoor flush due to the times you will also have to call the bigger turn bet.
Drawing to backdoor flushes when your hand has no other value is a common way for many players to lose money

[AceHigh]

Abdul lists it as 1.5 outs.

http://www.posev.com/poker/holdem/strategy/outs-abdul.html

Equivalent Outs When Drawing Two Cards

Draw on the Flop and Turn Outs
4-straight & 4-flush => straight or flush 25 1/2
set => full house or quads 15 1/2
4-nut-flush => nut flush 16 1/2
4-baby-flush vs. one => 5-flush 15
4-straight => straight 14 1/2
overpair vs 2-pair => 2-pair, set, etc 12 1/2
4-baby-flush vs. many => only 5-flush 12
nonpair => pair 11 1/2
gut shot straight draw => straight 7 1/2
two pair => strong full house or quads 7
3-straight & 3-flush => straight or flush 3
3-flush => flush 1 1/2
3-straight => 4-straight => straight 1 1/2

Not sure who is right.

[Sarge85]

Let's see...

What do I want to have happen if I bet the flop

1) Chase out other Queens and Jacks
2) Chase out worse straight draws than mine...
3) I give myself a better chance to win, and i still have multilple ways to improve.

How'd I do?

[Ed Miller]

That's the right idea. Always remember that flop aggression can help you pick up the pot on a later street without having to make your hand.

[Sarge85]

Recyling my favorites and found this....

Good Good stuff here....

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[southerndog]

Brian,

I would call the turn and call the river. I would call the turn cause it seems you have 7-9 outs. If you pick up any of your outs you will get paid additionally. I think you call the river cause it is possible he is pushing with AK.