A5s Hand

[El Dukie]

It's a loose, not too aggressive 15-30 game at Hollywood. Several of the players are playing any 2 suited, but there isn't a lot of preflop raising with garbage going on.

I'm on the button, and pick up A /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif. There are 4 limpers to me. I limp. (With a bigger suited kicker, something like ATs or bigger, I'll usually raise here. But I saw an opportunity to see a cheap flop.) No such luck. SB, one of the "any two suited" players, raises. I think she's likely to raise here with a big pair or possibly AKs or AQs. Maybe AK. I don't think she's the type to raise with smaller pairs. BB and the limpers call, I call as well. Seven see the flop for 14 small bets.

The flop is J T 8 rainbow, but with the T /images/graemlins/club.gif. Ick. SB bets right out. Everyone calls to me. Hmmm... 20-1 immediate odds. Nothing but a couple of backdoor draws, and even if the backdoor str8 comes runner-runner, I'll almost certainly be chopping. Plus, SB might have a set of Jacks or Tens. (Though I'm not sure if she'd raise preflop, out of position, with TT.) Since I can close the betting, I call. All seven see the turn for 21 SB = 10.5 BB.

Turn is the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif. Oooh! Well, that helped. (Or at least trapped me...) There's now a 4-str8 on the board, and if she in fact raised with AK, SB now has the nuts. She bets out. BB immediately raises. Yikes! Okay, he's got a nine, I think. The four preflop limpers all fold. I hesitate for a moment, then call. I figure I'm getting 13.5 - 2, or almost 7 - 1, with nine outs to scoop and 2 more outs to split, assuming SB has AK. I expect I'll find out in a moment if she does have AK. I think that even if she 3-bets, I'm getting 14.5 - 3, 15.5 - 3 if BB calls. My only concern is if BB caps it. Indeed, SB reraises. Okay, she's got AK. One of my "split" outs is gone. Hopefully she doesn't have the K /images/graemlins/club.gif. BB folds. Yep, I think he had a nine. I obviously call the additional bet.

River is an offsuit 4. SB bets. I fold. She shows me AKs.

I hate getting sucked in with backdoor draws! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[PDosterM]

There is an interesting baseline calculation to do to see if the conditions might be right for your play. Specifically, how big a pot represents fair value for drawing to a runner-runner nut flush? Baseline assumption for this preliminary calculation – this and the next round are not raised. Many people will note that it’s about 23-1 to make the flush and then they base their actions on that. The situation is worse than this implies because of the second round of betting.

Imagine this situation comes up 47 times. You put in a small bet all 47 times to see the turn. The turn is of your suit ten of those 47 times. You are now willing to invest a double bet ten times to see the river. The total investment for the 47 hands is 67 small bets. You catch your suit on the river twice (actually 1.96 times) and win the pot. So you need to get 34 small bets back each time you win for the flop call to be right.

You note that you are currently being offered only 20-1.

A key factor, of course, is the implied odds, which can make this situation better or worse. It gets better if many players stay for the river, don’t raise, and call your bet when you hit the straight. It gets worse if the turn round of betting is raised. (If it’s single-raised on the turn, you put in 87 small bets in the 47 instances and now need to win 44 small bets to break even.) It is also worse (hugely so) if you make the straight and still lose. In your example, the J/images/graemlins/club.gif and 8/images/graemlins/club.gif may be tainted as these cards may make someone a full house or better.

It’s tough to recommend a flop call in this situation. Of course once you snag the turn club, the odds are right to continue. But long term, this looks like a losing play to me.

Interesting question.

Cheers,

[worm33]

How you ever made the calculation that the sb had ak I would love to hear. Bets into 7 people on a j108 board. Yep looks like ak to me too....

[SoBeDude]

I think you must MUST fold on the flop here. You don't have a 'couple' of backdoor draws here really, you have one backdoor draw to the flush. Runner-runner to a board-straight doesn't count!

You're way short of pot odds to call for it.

IMO, this is a serious leak in your game.

-Scott

[El Dukie]

[ QUOTE ]
How you ever made the calculation that the sb had ak I would love to hear. Bets into 7 people on a j108 board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't narrow it down to precisely AK until she 3-bet the turn. Preflop I figured AA, KK, QQ, JJ, maybe AK, AQ, or TT. She was playing loose, but wasn't too out of line with her preflop raises. The flop bet I thought was consistent with just about any of those hands, though I personally wouldn't have bet out with AK or AQ (and probably would have checkraised with most of the other hands). When she 3-bet the turn, though, with a 4-str8 on the board, I was pretty sure she had the nuts. I thought if she had the set she'd just call and see if the board paired. If she had AA or KK, I also thought she'd just call.