Mistakes lead to profitable games

[AttackDog]

In the long run, poker profit comes when you play your hand better than your opponent. I am not talking about Slansky's Fundamental Theory of Poker (FTP). I mean, in retrospect, did you make the correct decision based on the information available at the time. Your choices of course are call, fold, check, raise.

Lets see how many mistakes were made in this hand. I will put a capital M next to each mistake. I am guilty of at least one and probably two. We don't know what mistakes the folders made, but lets look at the three finalists:
Preflop:
UTG limps
nianmin is the second limper in early position with 23s M
AttackDog raises after two limpers with AQs
another player (who folds later so we don't know his hand) makes it 3 bets
theunit calls 3 bets cold with AJo M (any chance this is the best hand at this point?)
nianmin calls the two raises with 23s M

Flop: A 8 5 rainbow
AttackDog bets his AQ
theunit raises his AJ
nianmin calls cold with 23 M
AttackDog reraises AQ
theunit calls AJ M (did he think everyone was on a draw?)
nianmin calls 2 bets cold with 23 gut shot M

Turn K (now 2 hearts on board)
AttackDog bets AQ
theunit calls AJ M
nianmin calls 23 gut shot (made worse since there was also a flush draw on board) M

River 4 (3 hearts on board)
nianmin checks his wheel M (since the scary flush could make everyone check around
AttackDog bets his AQ M (should have been worried about a flush but figured theunit would not have raised the flop with a flush draw, debatable assumption, and figured nianmin would not check a flush. I went for the value bet. I also wanted to avoid creating a situation where a check could cause theunit to value bet and nianmin a bluff where I would fold incorrectly - - something that has happened before)
theunit calls AJ (ok since its now a big pot)
nianmin raises his staight
AttackDog calls M (what the heck was I thinking)
theunit calls M (what did he think everyone had?)

Thats a lot of mistakes. Thats where profit comes from.

Here are the three hands at showdown:
AttackDog AQ
theunit AJ
nianmin 23

Board 8 5 A K 4


Hello AttackDog,
You have recently requested your transcript of the game number 348758723.


***** Hand History for Game 348758723 *****
15/30 TexasHTGameTable (Limit) - Fri Jan 23 02:19:40 EST 2004
Table Card Room Table 2849 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: TomYumG ( $1343)
Seat 2: MGXOO ( $933)
Seat 3: Any2CanWin ( $664.50)
Seat 4: Blue_Lipton ( $720)
Seat 5: snake2003 ( $1162)
Seat 6: nianmin ( $413)
Seat 7: AttackDog ( $1047)
Seat 8: dmtmd6365 ( $849.50)
Seat 9: nadinek ( $2001)
Seat 10: theunit ( $715.50)
Any2CanWin posts small blind (10)
Blue_Lipton posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AttackDog [ Qc, Ac ]
snake2003 calls (15)
nianmin calls (15)
AttackDog raises (30) to 30
dmtmd6365 folds.
nadinek raises (45) to 45
theunit calls (45)
TomYumG folds.
MGXOO folds.
Any2CanWin folds.
Blue_Lipton folds.
snake2003 calls (30)
nianmin calls (30)
AttackDog calls (15)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8c, 5d, Ah ]
snake2003 checks.
nianmin checks.
AttackDog bets (15)
nadinek calls (15)
theunit raises (30) to 30
snake2003 folds.
nianmin calls (30)
AttackDog raises (30) to 45
nadinek folds.
theunit calls (15)
nianmin calls (15)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kh ]
nianmin checks.
AttackDog bets (30)
theunit calls (30)
nianmin calls (30)
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
nianmin checks.
AttackDog bets (30)
theunit calls (30)
nianmin raises (60) to 60
AttackDog calls (30)
theunit calls (30)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $667 | Rake: $3
Board: [ 8c 5d Ah Kh 4h ]
TomYumG balance $1343, didn't bet (folded)
MGXOO balance $933, didn't bet (folded)
Any2CanWin balance $654.50, lost $10 (folded)
Blue_Lipton balance $705, lost $15 (folded)
snake2003 balance $1117, lost $45 (folded)
nianmin balance $900, bet $180, collected $667, net +$487 [ 2s 3s ] [ a straight, ace to five -- Ah,5d,4h,3s,2s ]
AttackDog balance $867, lost $180 [ Qc Ac ] [ a pair of aces -- Ac,Ah,Kh,Qc,8c ]
dmtmd6365 balance $849.50, didn't bet (folded)
nadinek balance $1941, lost $60 (folded)
theunit balance $535.50, lost $180 [ Ad Jh ] [ a pair of aces -- Ad,Ah,Kh,Jh,8c ]

[Baulucky]

Incredible this goes on at a 15/30 game.

What site was this at?.

This gives me a little hope that maybe, just maybe, one day I can make my way and hold my own at 15/30. Some people just hate money.

[CrackerZack]

There are more mistakes in this post than 23s made. PF, fine, all mistakes.

23s calling 2 cold on the flop is barely a mistake. (see below), NOT calling the 3rd bet on the flop would be a HORRENDOUS mistake.

23s folding on the turn would be awful.

23s check on the river is not a mistake since he plans on check-raising which he did and got 2 extra bets from. If he doesn't think you're a wuss and will check due to the flush, its played perfectly, if he thinks you'll check behind, he should bet out, but for the 2 bets, its worth the risk.

FWIW, AJo played this about 10x worse than 23s ever did. Did UTG limper fold PF? Did PF 3-bettor fold for 1 bet on the flop? I went assuming they did, if they didn't 23s calling 2 cold on the flop isn't a mistake at all. So overall, only getting involved PF was his mistake. Nice post though, I'll be wary of nianmin as his PF requirements are loose but his post flop play is good and that makes for a scary opponent. theunit on the other hand needs to work on his game.

Edit: I looked at HH finally and see both UTG limper called all PF action and PF 3-bettor put in 2 SBs on the flop. 23s did not make a single mistake postflop.

[CrackerZack]

People play all sorts of cheese all over. The thing that most worries me about this bad-beat-post-trying-to-hide-in-an-information-post is that the author doesn't see that 23s played the hand nearly perfectly post flop. MK has many posts talking about playing more aggressive in big pots to increase your chance of winning it, but AJo dude committed on the flop to seeing a showdown so there was no reason for semi-bluff aggression from 23s here. That being accepted, 23s post flop play is either nearly perfect, (if UTG limper folded PF and PF 3-bettor folded for 1 bet on the flop) or if either of them put any more money into the pot, its perfect.

AJo in this hand, now that's something to drool over.

[AttackDog]

Are we all in agreement the 23s should not have limped in second position? How about calling 2 more bets preflop instead of folding and giving up his fifteen bucks? Both decisions are wrong.

Now how about the flop? He has 4 outs. Should he call two bets cold with a chance it could go three or four bets (it did go three for a "investment" of $ 45). He could hit the straight and still lose. The pot on the flop is $250. 5 callers at $45 each plus $25 dead from the blinds. He will hit the straight on the turn about 8.5% of the time. Half of those will leave a flush draw which could catch him. If he hits the straight he wins a $667 pot. His profit on this "flop" call is $667 minus his $45 call on the flop, $60 on the turn (assuming he raises) and $30 on the river equalling a profit of $532. $532 profit divided by $45 cost is 11.82 to one. 4 outs from 47 unknown cards is 11.75 to one. So he has a small positive expectation for calling the turn ignoring the chance he will get caught from behind by a higher straight, flush or full house. Due to the redraws which could beat him, this call is not a money maker but its not that bad either. He does have an positive expectation because even if he misses (which he did) he will have a positive expectation on the river. If the turn has one or more raises, he may be unable to continue his chase.

Now on the turn he has 4 outs out of 46 cards, and three of the outs are nuts. The odds are 11.5 to one. It is costing him $30 to win $577 ($667 pot less his own $90 investment on the turn and river) so he is getting 19 to one assuming his check raise works and he does not lose to a flush. If it gets checked around, like it should have if I had played cautiously due to the flush possibilities, the pot is $487 (subtacting the $180 on the river), so he is calling a $30 bet to win $457 (the final pot would be $667 less the $180 created by the check raise). Therefore, he could be getting 15.2 to 1 on his call on the turn. Still profitable. So I like the turn call.

In conclusion, the call on the flop is not one I would make. I adds to risk without a positive expection. The call on the turn is automatic. The check raise on the river is also risky (due to the flush board) and I would recommend just betting out. I am not willing to give a trophy to nianmin for the play of this hand and he has earned a spot on my buddy list. The AJo caller has been on my buddy list for a long time.

[CrackerZack]

[ QUOTE ]
In conclusion, the call on the flop is not one I would make. I adds to risk without a positive expection.

[/ QUOTE ]

With implied odds this is a no-brainer. And what is the certain paranoia about a runner-runner flush. if its out there, so beat it, but I really not gonna consider it unless I'm 3-bet on the river, and even then I might cap with the wheel here. If you want to take into account the times he hits and loses to a flush, its pretty much counter acted by the times the turn and river come 22, 33 or 23 and he takes it down with some real ugly crap.

PF is garbage, post flop this hand is well played.

[MS Sunshine]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=185261
pokenum -h ac qc - ad jh - 2s 3s -- 8c 5d ah
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8c 5d Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 607 67.22 261 28.90 35 3.88 0.692
Ad Jh.. 94 10.41 774 85.71 35 3.88 0.123
3s 2s. 167 18.49 736 81.51 0 0.00 0.185

$160 pot with an expected $45 to see all cards. $45/$350 is 12.8 of the money with an 18% chance of being the winner. Worst case $15 on flop by all players and a bet and raise with bettor folding $45+60+60=$325 75/325 is 23%. The 32 has all the implied odds. The turn bet facing a double bet:


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=185312
pokenum -h ad jh - 2s 3s -- 8c 5d ah kh
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 8c 5d Ah Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Jh 40 90.91 4... 9.09 0 0.00 0.909
3s 2s.. 4 9.09.. 40 90.91 0 0.00 0.091

Makes this unprofitable to call.

Taking everything in 32 was close in whatever decision he makes between fold and call post-flop.

The AJ played like [censored].

IMO

MS Sunshine

[Jim Easton]

[ QUOTE ]
Now on the turn he has 4 outs out of 46 cards, and three of the outs are nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

None of the outs are the nuts. A 4 would give someone with 76 a bigger straight. 32s played horribly preflop, but post flop was close.

[AttackDog]

how did he call the flop?
23 suuuited rules
no comments please on my folding JJ. this post is about 23 suuuuited

my buddy list is getting long

Hello AttackDog,
You have recently requested your transcript of the game number 350282837.


***** Hand History for Game 350282837 *****
15/30 TexasHTGameTable (Limit) - Sat Jan 24 00:43:05 EST 2004
Table Temptation (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: gildon ( $708)
Seat 2: shmant ( $155)
Seat 3: LovelyRita ( $642)
Seat 4: heylady191 ( $400)
Seat 5: Gnish ( $57)
Seat 6: plywood ( $2005)
Seat 7: Ace_NY ( $770)
Seat 8: AspenRidge ( $1665)
Seat 9: kentonsm ( $370)
Seat 10: AttackDog ( $620)
gildon posts small blind (10)
shmant posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AttackDog [ Jd, Jh ]
LovelyRita folds.
Gnish folds.
plywood raises (30) to 30
Ace_NY calls (30)
kentonsm folds.
AttackDog calls (30)
gildon folds.
shmant calls (15)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5s, Kh, Qc ]
shmant checks.
plywood bets (15)
Ace_NY calls (15)
AttackDog folds.
shmant folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Th ]
plywood bets (30)
Ace_NY calls (30)
** Dealing River ** : [ Ah ]
plywood bets (30)
Ace_NY raises (60) to 60
plywood calls (30)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $337 | Rake: $3
Board: [ 5s Kh Qc Th Ah ]
gildon balance $698, lost $10 (folded)
shmant balance $125, lost $30 (folded)
LovelyRita balance $642, didn't bet (folded)
heylady191 balance $400, sits out
Gnish balance $457, didn't bet (folded)
plywood balance $1870, lost $135 [ 5c 5h ] [ three of a kind, fives -- Ah,Kh,5c,5h,5s ]
Ace_NY balance $972, bet $135, collected $337, net +$202 [ 3h 2h ] [ a flush, ace high -- Ah,Kh,Th,3h,2h ]
AspenRidge balance $1665, sits out
kentonsm balance $370, didn't bet (folded)
AttackDog balance $590, lost $30 (folded)

For detailed handhistory, click here