Wrong to pay it off?

[kingstalker]

UB 3+0 rebuy tournament
Blinds 100/200 I have 5700 in chips
I have /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK in BB,one limper
Flop is /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ
I check, and my opponet checks, Wish I had bet it here
Turn /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8
Here I raise to about 800 and my opponet calls
River is /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7
Here I push all in and my oppont calls me with /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif4 with a ace high flush,Im thinking me pushing all in was a terrible mistake because the only hand he could have to call me with would be either the /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 for a straight flush or a /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA, should I just checked it and perhaps even folded if he came out swinging on the river?

[cferejohn]

I agree with your self-analysis. This is a pretty classic "only better hands will call" hand. I think you need to check the river and see what he does. If he bets small for value, you will probably have to pay him off (is it still the rebuy period?). I don't think he would necessarily push in because he knows the only person who might call an all-in is the king/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and he'd like to make some money off of it.

Normally with a king high flush, you could make a small value but, but as you say, the highest diamond that could call you and be behind is the 6. I think if you bet for value here, it clues him into the fact that you probably have at least one diamond, and he can probably feel more confident charging you more than he might otherwise to see his winner.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Heads up I can't see why you wouldn't bet the flop. I'd bet it and probably willingly call all-in with almost any size stacks. with 12 outs and two cards to come you have a 45% chance of winning, so it'll be rare that you don't have the pot odds to call on the flop here.

On the river you are right, you won't get action unless you're beat.

al

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
Im thinking me pushing all in was a terrible mistake because the only hand he could have to call me with would be either the /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 for a straight flush or the /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're exactly right. Looks like you bet more than double the pot on the river so you'd have to be bluffing more than 40% of the time for the call to make sense with anything less than the nut flush IMHO. This appears to be a classic "gain nothing if you're ahead, lose a ton when behind" bet.

Value-betting isn't my strength (I have made lots of gain nothing/lose big bets myself), but my initial reaction is to bet 1/2 the pot and reevaluate if he comes over the top.

Actually, now that I think about it a little more, I think checking and then reevaluating is probably better. Your opponent will probably fold to any bet if he doesn't have a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (or at least a T) so checking gives him a chance to give you some chips when he bluffs.

When he does have a hand, he will probably make a value bet much smaller than allin which you can call if you sense trouble rather than risking all your chips.