Is it worth it to make bluffs like this?

[Inthacup]

15-30 game on Party, I have a pretty good line on a few opponents. My opponent on this hand is the kind of player that I have run into a lot lately in the 15-30 game. He's aggressive and is frequently making moves on players.


Folded to him, he open raises in the CO, I 3-bet in the SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, BB folds, he calls. I know he would cap here with a mid-big pair. I put him on Ace high.


Flop: J /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet, he calls.


When he calls, I know exactly what he's going to do. He's going to raise the turn to move me off my hand. He doesn't think I have a J and he's going to represent one. I basically have 2 options: 1. Play back into him or 2. give up the pot. There is an off chance that he could actually have the Jack, but more times than not, he'll try to throw a bluff on me.


Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet, he raises, I 3-bet, he calls.


There was a hesitation in his call. I felt confident he didn't have a Jack. The only thing I could realisitically put him on is ace high or a low pocket pair.

River: 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet and he auto-folds.


Yes, this bluff worked this time and I probably did get him to fold Ace high.


However, I'd like to hear from the experienced 15-30 players if these moves are even worth it. Sometimes I feel that if I don't play back at these guys, I'll get bluffed out of too many pots. I've very rarely had situations come up at limits lower than this, so I still feel this part of my game needs work. Not so much in knowing how to represent a big hand, but whether I should or shouldn't take hands this far against this type of opponent.

Thanks.



Cup

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
When he calls, I know exactly what he's going to do. He's going to raise the turn to move me off my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
it does come up a lot recently on party. not only the 15-30 but 10-20 short as well. people are more likely to pull the trigger on the turn whether bluffing or not. many would raise the turn in your case with a pocket pair too.

i think what you did was a great solution for this type of attack. although your variance might be much higher because of this.

good play.

Kenny

[GuyOnTilt]

I'd like to hear from the experienced 15-30 players if these moves are even worth it.

I wouldn't call myself an experienced player, but look at the pot. It's 4 BB's after the flop, and you KNOW that he's going to raise the turn with A-high looking to push you off your hand. You could check-fold, and lose a 4 BB pot. Or you could bet and 3-bet, risking 3 BB's to gain 6 BB's (the 4 plus 2 strange on the turn), and potentially 4 BB's if he calls your 3-bet and you plan on continueing your bluff. Add in the chance that he may have the Jack and you tell me. Is it worth it?

GoT

[rtrombone]

I find it hard to believe your opponent mucked ace-high here. I've seen so many people call with nothing but ace-high heads up after lots of action that I don't think your play is profitable in the long run. I'm sure you've seen people bet their ace-high busted draws on the river as bluffs, only to get called by worse ace-highs. More likely he had something like T9.

Against the typical Party jackass you are better off making thin value bets than running bluffs.

[andyfox]

"I know exactly what he's going to do."

There's no better bluffing opportunity.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Seems like he's more of a difficult opponent than you give him credit for. He's trying to discourage you from playing your semi-bluffs through the turn, and maybe you should take advantage of that and only bet your good hands on the turn.

It does depend on what he'll do if you check the turn though. Some players will take the free card even if they would have raised, and some will bet out.

Every once in a while (< 10%) you have to 3-bet and follow through with a bet on the river. Even if you lose the hand, you're announcing with fair warning that you're willing to semi-bluff 3-bet, and hopefully that will cause him to back off for a bit. He has to have some indication that he will be 3-bet if he raises the turn frequently.

Meanwhile, if you're running well, you can also bash through him with a few good hands hopefully win some extra money there.

[eugeneel]

I think that checkraising the turn and betting the river will have the exact same effect as the way you chose to do it but will cost you less if he has a small pair or ace high (which he would call you with).

Is there any reason why you wouldn't use a checkraise here?

or how about calling the turn and checkraising the river? (I play my trips this way a good amount of the time against good opponents anyway)

to me it seems that both these plays are slightly higher ev in the long run. Also note that the pot is smaller in both my cases by one big bet, so the chance of him folding an ace high hand after my bluffs goes up because.

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't call myself an experienced player, but look at the pot. It's 4 BB's after the flop, and you KNOW that he's going to raise the turn with A-high looking to push you off your hand. You could check-fold, and lose a 4 BB pot. Or you could bet and 3-bet, risking 3 BB's to gain 6 BB's (the 4 plus 2 strange on the turn), and potentially 4 BB's if he calls your 3-bet and you plan on continueing your bluff. Add in the chance that he may have the Jack and you tell me. Is it worth it?



[/ QUOTE ]

You have to look at this hand with future and past hands in mind. Meaning, it's worth giving up a little EV if that means you'll be improving your table image and showing opponents that they can't push you off a hand.

[andyfox]

A check-raise might accomplish the same thing, but since the turn card brought a flush draw, his opponent might think he was check-raising as a semi-bluff and call him down on the river. 3-betting carries a lot more weight.

The problem with calling the turn and planning to check-raise the river is that his opponent might check behind on the river.

[samdash]

I think you played the hand well overall and have a good understanding of the players on party 15/30. This guy is just out of his mind though. What kind of hand can he have to not just give up on the turn but fold the river? Maybe some kind of draw? No...he would have 4 bet the draw.

[JimRivett]

There was a hesitation in his call.

This is what I have trouble understanding, you see I don't play on-line, and I was wondering how you can tell for sure his hesitation wasn't just a "hick up" in the connection or if he really was distracted by something as opposed to his contemplating your re-raise? You can't see the players on-line, and I would have a difficult time knowing exactly what causes these hesitations.

Regards, Jim

[phish]

I think you played your hand like a world class player. You put him on a hand, knew he would raise the turn, and had the heart to bet out anyway and reraise. Then follow thru with a river bet to win the pot.
This is the kind of skill and heart it takes to beat the games much bigger than 15/30. (Also why the swings in those games (300/600 e.g.) are so huge)
Don't listen to any weak-tight advice about not making plays like this.

[Inthacup]

you tell me. Is it worth it?

I know this question is supposed to be rhetoric, but I still don't know.

[Inthacup]

Seems like he's more of a difficult opponent than you give him credit for.


I didn't say he was an easy opponent. I think he has weaknesses, but my problem with exploiting the weakness is that if I'm wrong or slightly off, I've invested a few big bets to find out.


He's trying to discourage you from playing your semi-bluffs through the turn, and maybe you should take advantage of that and only bet your good hands on the turn.

How is this taking advantage of anything? If he discourages me from semi-bluffing thus conceding the pot, he has the advantage, not me.


It does depend on what he'll do if you check the turn though

With his aggression, he'd almost certainly bet, especially if he thought my check was weak.

Thanks for the input.



Cup

[Inthacup]

how you can tell for sure his hesitation wasn't just a "hick up" in the connection


While it's certainly not a perfect science, I can usually tell the difference. My computer/connection is really fast, so it's hardly ever on my end. I can tell when it's the servers, so that's not really ever an issue.

He could be distracted, but that's unlikely given the amount of time between his raise and my 3-bet. It's hard to describe, but after thousands of hours online, most times I can just tell.


Cup

[Hombre]

Nice Hand, I conisdered posting this hand as well wondering how much I overplayed and misplayed a blind steal with Ace High. You clearly outplayed me but I think it is fair that both of us misplayed the hand. An additional call or raise on the river would have won the pot for me, or a fold after your turn reraise would have still been better than the way I played it. Both are far better options than calling the third raise and folding on the river.... now that you point it out I am disgusted.

However after my turn raise you are commiting yourself to 3 more big bets to win the hand when I could call you down with Ace high or have a pair.



I knew on the flop that I would raise the turn regardless. What's scary is you knew that as well. However, just as you have some table image at stake, so do I if I fold for every three bet. My reasoning was this.

1. The Jack is not an issue

2. There are 3 possible hands you could have in my opinion, a pocket pair like 66 or 99. Ax also, or precisely King Queen.

3. So I called the thrid bet because the pot was large and I figured I still had some outs. In the end I think the best play on your part was the 3 bet pre-flop. I was considering calling with Ace High but the pre-flop re-raise ultimately convinced me that I was up against a pocket pair or an Ace with a real kicker.



I do think this topic is extremely important though. Here's a similar hand from a Party 15-30 game today. I ask the same question, is it worth it?

One limper UTG+1 calls, folds to me in late position one off the button and I raise with 8-9 hearts because my notes on the limper say "weak tight, will laydown a hand." SB and BB fold and the limper calls. Lovely flop of A clubs and 6 and seven of hearts.

Limper checks I bet he calls. Turn is 4 diamonds, checks, I bet, he calls. River is 3 diamonds he bets into me and I raise, limper mucks his hand.

I do think plays like this are necessary, but what has been the deciding factor for me is how well I know my opponent. I usually don't use plays like this until I have evidence from previous hands that the player will fold. While it can be a brilliant play on the right type of opponent it can cost you 2 BB or 3 BB in your hand if the player is capable of calling down due to the size of the pot.

Any thoughts?

Once again nice hand Cup,

Hombre

[Vehn]

Basically, no. Wait until you have position on him to mix it up.

You realize he probably didn't have nut-king-high beat, right? I doubt you got away with anything.