Can you get away from this hand?

[heyrocker]

$10 SNG on Paradise, middle of third round (15/30), 9 left. In the big blind with Qh 9s and around 900. Two limpers and the small blind call to me, I check. Flop comes 9d 8c 3s. I push out 110 (approximately the pot) and get one caller. Turn comes 9h. Now this guy could have anything at this point. Overcards, a pair, the only things I can realistically discount are straight/flush draws. So I push out 300 (again approximately the pot). He calls. River comes Ks.

Two possibilities:
1) Bet. How much? Anything sizeable commits me since I'm down to 475 now, so really the only option is going all in. The only hands I'm really fearing are A9, K9, 33, 55, KK.

2) Check. Then there are two possibilities from there.

2a) He checks, and then whatever.
2b) He bets, probably large, then what? Can you fold this? If you reraise all in, he's calling anyways.

Results to follow.

[William]

1)He has you beaten.
If you bet you loose.
If you check, he bets and you also loose. here you are dead, no real interest.

2) You have the best hand.
If you bet and he calls, you win some extra chips.
If you bet and he folds you win the pot.
If you check and he checks you win the pot.
If you check and he tries to bluff you, you win some extra chips.

So the real issue here is bet/call or check/bluff

Better to bet.

Take care,
William

[C M Burns]

check and call any bet, if you bet and he calls u are probably beat so no value there, but u have too much/too good to fold, a bet by him could be a weaker hand or bluff.

[William]

[ QUOTE ]
check and call any bet, if you bet and he calls u are probably beat so no value there, but u have too much/too good to fold, a bet by him could be a weaker hand or bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has him beaten, he would probably raise on the turn. but if he has an overpair an 8 or a K, he will probably call. Much more value in betting.

[Cowboybud25]

This would be a hard one to get away from for me .I would go all in. If he has any of the hands u were talking about thin your out.To me this would be a hard hand to lay down with no straight or flush draw out there and with half my chips in the pot.

[heyrocker]

I'll be honest, after the K fell, I didn't really think about it and just pushed in. He had 33 and I lost, dominated from the start.

I wish I had thought about it. If I had my thoughts would have gone like this. He called, so he has something. But he didn't raise. My big suspicion at this point would be the four flush, but its not available. No straight draw. So what could he possibly have? I don't believe even AK would call a 300 bet with no board, and besides anyone with AK in a tourney like this is usually raising preflop. But then again if he had say 33 or A9, I would be expecting a reraise of the 300 bet. Still, nothing here makes sense except possibly that he has a lower 9, but if I had thought about it I probably would have realized I was dominated and checked. Of course he would have gone all in and I probably would have called anyways, so its not like it would have mattered. Still, it upsets me that I didn't fully go through the process, which is a common problem for me.

By the way, what does everyone think of the turn bet? Is that a good amount? Too much? Just push it in there?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

His play doesn't look like a 9 or a set or even an overpair. My gut is he's got JT or A8. If you bet your stack, he'll fold if he's beat and may only call if he's ahead (maybe he'll call with A8), but if you check, he *will* bet with A8 and may well bluff a missed draw.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

William,

Don't you think that a typical opponent at this level is more likely to bluff with a hand that's behind than call a big bet with that same hand? (A8 for example)

My thinking is that's the only EV difference in the bet vs. check debate.

[CrisBrown]

Hi heyrocker,

Given his play so far, I'm going to give him credit for some kind of hand. There are hands that could beat me, but not a whole lot of them, and it's just as likely that he is betting a hand I have beaten.

As Kurn said, this comes down to a player read:

Elephant (loose-passive): bet out, as he'll call but will not bet himself.

Mouse (tight-passive): check-fold, as he won't call or bet without A9 or better.

Jackal (loose-aggressive): either bet out or check-call, as he's likely to call or bet, even if he's beaten.

Lion (tight-aggressive): check-call, as he won't call unless he has 9x beaten, but may bet with less.

Cris

[BolliTrader]

Hi heyrocker,
This is a difficult situation. I had a similar one and what I did was check the turn. My thinking was that he already called one pot bet sized bet, so he's likely to call another (read from that player, yours was different I'm sure). This gave him the oppurtunity to bet first.

I knew if he went all in I was folding to his set better kicker (my kicker was a 4) / full house. I thought if he place a weak bet I would check raise to pot. If he calls he was slow playing the set or full house. If he pot bet it I had to decide there and then if my set was good enough to win the hand. If so I was to raise him all in there. If not I fold. If he checks I hate myself for giving him a free card to the straight or flush draw, which was what he wanted. But this also tells me if the flush or str8 don't fall the hand is mine, since he would want to get value out of his hand if he was actually on something...

He weak bet, I re-raised to pot and he called. I check the river he goes all in. Here I didn't follow my own advise and my set fell to a full house... The best laid plans... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Good thread...
good luck
Bolli