How good is my TT?

[PrayingMantis]

Hi all,

I'm having a bad run right now. Let's say it's alright if I know I made the right move and just lost to a bad beat (2 outer on the river!), or when I'm 2:1 favorite and he hits his flush. But sometimes I'm just not sure...


2 tables SNG, 14 left, blinds 50/100, I'm w/T1340.
All fold to me in MP, I raise to 300 with TT. It's folded to the BB, pretty loose player w/T3380. He calls. I saw him call PF raises with 56o.

Flop: 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

He checks. Your move?

White font for my move and results:

<font color="white"> I went all-in. He calls with AQo. I'm out.
</font>


PrayingMantis

[William]

I would move all-in here.
If you just want the blinds, then you should bet more preflop. If you want action and there is only one overcard on the flop (in this case only a Q, not the worst)then you must finish what you started and put pressure on him.

Take care,
William

[Edge34]

Hey mantis,

I'm not sure about an all-in right here, right now. If he's been known to call PF raises with virtually anything, you can't discount him from holding a 3 OR the queen as he has now. Betting at this pot is far from the problem, but I don't think it was worth the risk of your entire tournament when you could be drawing to 2 outs (as you were). Make something like a 200 or 300 bet and see what he does. If he plays back at you, let him take it...if not, you see the turn and get to repeat the process a bit. Just my two cents, i'm sure there's plenty of reasons to move in here too.

-Edge



ps. i'm in the middle of the worst run of my life right now, i feel your pain...just gotta keep workin'.

[DougBrennan]

I would certainly make a stab at this pot. And since "a stab" probably means a pot-sized bet against this player, and since a pot-sized bet is better than 60% of your stack (if my math is right), all-in it is.

If you check he will almost certainly put you to the test on the turn, and you won't know any more than you do now about what he's got. If he happens to have that AQ, well, SNGs start pretty frequently.

[DougBrennan]

Well Mantis,

I just looked at the results, and I guess I'd be joining you at the new table. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[William]

Guys, I just saw the result as well. Save a seat for me /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DougBrennan]

A few more votes for the all-in and we can have another 2+2 SNG. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for the feedback,

It's good to know you're writing your replies before checking the results. I guess it makes your opinions more realistic: you still don't know the outcome, and just treat the situation as it is.

What's more, I feel better, as almost all of you see it as a "bad luck" spot, in which my move was probably the best.

Anyway, I'll save you seats at the next table...
Hope you don't mind sitting to my right, though. /images/graemlins/grin.gif


PrayingMantis

[PrayingMantis]

Hey Edge,

I think the main problem in betting 200-300 here, is that it looks weak, and may put you in a situation where BB raises you (or calls here and bets the turn), and you are not sure where you are: did he just sense your (true) weakness, or does he have the goods?

It's the same problem with checking the flop, IMO. The advantages of betting all-in are: 1) you prevent him of a free card, and his stack is big enough, so that any small bet won't do it, 2) he might call with the flush draw, or with some AK, or lower pair, which is, of course, very good for you.

I think, and other replies made it clear, that most of the time you will win something here (the pot alone, or more), while in minority of the cases you will lose it all to some Q or, rarely, 3. Without getting into calculation, I think this is +EV. And I guess that if you take into consideration the small size of your stack, I couldn't really see any other option but moving in.


Well, anyway, I hope we both get out of our bad-runs...

GL,
PrayingMantis

[jw2k]

I think allin is perfectly fine, since you want the pot and a reasonable bet commits you anyway. But I think a better play may be to check behind, though I'm probably going bust on the flop here myself (read the results already).

Given the little bit of info available on the BB, I think it likely that he would have bet out if he hit any kind of a flush draw here. So taking a free card is not a disaster here. He may well have called with a hand like A9..A2 if he is really loose (I assume he's done more than make just one loose call?) The object is to get him to bluff you on the turn here... or to try to sell his hand at a discount if he's got you beaten, but doesn't think he can get you to commit to allin on the turn. Plus, if my read is correct on the flush I can bluff him on the turn with the right card.

jw2k

[JohnG]

In this situation, with these pot/stack ratios, I'd normally tend to bet all-in on flop regardless of what I raised with preflop.