Situation I think I get wrong every time

[Guy McSucker]

Mid-tournament situation.

You have QQ, blinds are, oh I don't know, 100-200, and you open for 800. The BB calls, leaving himself 2000 chips. You have him covered, just.

Flop comes J-J-4 with two hearts. Let's suppose your queens are black. He checks. What do you do and why?

Would you play it differently if you had AA? And again, why?

Assume this guy is your generic opponent, and the average stack is 4k or so.

Guy.

[Bluff1]

Hello Guy

I move in here. I would think what could he call my raise with? If he called it with aj then I would just have to pay him off on this flop. I might be less inclined to move in if it were an idoit who would call my raise with j9 or jt. I would play AA the same way.

[rbenuck4]

The problem with this hand is it is one of those situations where you are either going to win a small pot or lose a huge one. If you go all in, he has an extremely easy decision. If he has a jack, he is going to call. If he has a flush draw, well then it depends upon what odds he is getting. In this case, there is 1600 + 2000 in the pot for him, giving him 3.6 to 2 to call this. He's gotta figure a couple of his outs my be tainted (figuring you for a pair or a J), but his odds are decent enough to call this. On the other hand, if he has nothing, you win right then and there.

The other problem is you can't make a feeler bet (another 800 will basically pot commit you, and anything less won't get any respect). I still say you gotta push your luck and put him to the test. If he does have a J, well then you are going to pay him off. If he has a heart draw, you have to make him pay to get his flush.

As far as aces, this just makes my decision a little easier, becuase it eliminates the worries that he called my raise preflop with KK or AA. I would still play it the same way.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Tough one. I think most players would bet a jack with the flush draw on the board. Calling the raise from the BB w/AK is also very possible. AA or KK would have put me all-in preflop. I think I push the rest of my chips in here.

[Martin Aigner]

rbenicuk,

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with this hand is it is one of those situations where you are either going to win a small pot or lose a huge one

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite. The pot is already 1600 big,while the other player and the poster have about 2000 each left. Therefore winning this pot right now can´t be too bad.

My play would be all in and pray.

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[William]

When you raise with QQ and are called, what are you hoping for? To hit a Q of course, but the very next best is a flop with undercards. That is what you got here, so you should be happy. If you check, the free card could be an overcard, a third heart, a small card that hits his small PP (if he has one) Even if he has completely missed the flop, he could sense fear in you and move in. You're probably going to call anyway, so no need to give the free card.
i don't think you have to fear AA or KK. He would probably have made it clear pre-flop. And if he has a J, bad luck, you need a certified cristal ball to come alive from the situation anyway.
Remember there are only 2 J's left and no hand including a J would normally call your pre-flop raise (except JJ of course). You have got the flop you were hoping for, act on it.
Holding AA, my play would be just the same.

Take care,
William

[thomastem]

Doesn't a typical opponent reraise with A-A or K-K? J-J is very unlikely that only leaves A-J (or possibly K-J if he thought you were stealing) If he has 3 jacks why risk giving you a free card with 2 hearts on the board?

I get my money in here.

[jw2k]

It may be a leak in my game, but I push in every time here against a generic ($10-$20 buyin) opponent. The pot is too big, and my stack is getting short enough that it's time to take some chances. There's not enough information to decide that he's in there with a J, an A-high flush draw which wants to see a cheap turn, or a slow-played big pair. While I think a J is possible (AJ in particular), he did call off 1/4 of his stack preflop. This play is possible for a generic player (in my expierence), but 99 and TT as well as A9s and KQs are also possible holdings. The flush draw is likely to try to pick up the pot with an allin bet here. And, if he slow played a big pair (and I think this is unlikely since he offered me a free card), then he's going to have to ask himself if I raised preflop with AJ when I push my stack in.

If I check behind, it might induce a bluff on the turn from a hand (like TT) that I can beat. But there are 15 cards which I don't want to see out there (any heart, any overcard). I'd rather take my shot on the flop.

Just my T0.02 (which is probably what I have left when he flips over 9Jo).
jw2k

[Guy McSucker]

Thanks for your replies so far.

Does anything change if the flush draw isn't there? I am still interested in the difference for you between QQ and AA too.

Starting to think maybe I don't get this wrong so often after all...

Guy.

[jw2k]

Again let me preface this with a warning: while my multitable results since I started playing them in October are well in the black at ($10+1 and $20+2 pokerstars), they may not be statistically significant.

Having AcAs or KcKs doesn't change my play of the hand here.
If there are no flush or straight draws, AND I've got AA or KK here, then I might be more inclined to check behind and induce a bluff, continuing this play if he checks to me on a safe (i.e. no new draws) turn card. But it can't be a big mistake to try to take down a pot which increases your stack by 80% here, even if you thought your opponent would push in with a weaker hand on the turn.

Of course, my judgement may be clouded here by a tourney where I tried this play, my opponent spiked his set/boat on the turn and I called. The next hand I picked up KK and lost when I got four callers of my 2xBB allin.

jw

[Moonsugar]

I assume I have a little over 2000 chips. If so then I probably bet 800 chips again. Then I shut down. I know I am open to getting bluffed if a lot of people know this so I can't do it every time but I think this is what I would do.

My second choice is to check it through and call or bet/raise if no A or K hits on the turn.

My third choice is to check it all the way down.

Fourth is to go big on the flop to protect v. an A or K but I am sporked to any J.

AA you can check it even more because you fear no overcards. Whereas with an opponent holding of AK you will live to regret not betting and an overcard comes.

Edit: I forgot about the flush draw. That makes this hand a lot tougher. (As if it was easy). Maybe just go all in. If you want to gamble, of if flush draw not there then you can play as above.

[William]

You must be joking /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Moonsugar]

No, I wasn't. I didn't remember the flush draw in first post so I edited it. But if my thinking is still wrong then, well, that's why I am not an expert. But I don't think you can play the exact same way every single time so that is why I presented a list, in order of frequency, of possible plays.

In your post you said that this was a great flop for QQ and that must be a joke if you think my post is a joke.

[William]

Think about it this way. There are only 2 J's out there. Aren't you a HUGE favourit of having the best hand? You can't play poker and be afraid of gosths all the time....

Take care,
William

[Moonsugar]

Other hands beat you beside a J and the guy is not calling you with a random hand. But that is not even that important, the heart of our disagreement I am sure lies in this:

The all in has +EV in terms of chips but that isn't everything in a tourney.

And if the guy is going to fold to an all in he will most likely fold to 800. You wil most likely only get called if you are beat and then you are out. If you take my option 1 and bet 800 you still have a stack, a short stack but you have chips.

[William]

If you bet 800 or check, you are inviting him to raise/bet on the turn. Then what? you fold? and wait to flop the nuts next time. That will be at the next tourney I imagine...

[cavalier]

I agree with William. If I'm the leader, I want to win this hand right now. There are too many dangerous cards out there.

You both have 2000 left and he pot is at 1700 when that scary, but good-for-you flop comes.

If you bet anything less than 1/2 of the pot (850) you are now down to so few that you'd be committed to the pot. Anything less than 850 probably would invite a draw.

The 1/2 pot or less bet might get called by an overcard/flush draw ( which you don't really want ). If another scary card comes on the turn, you might actually decide to throw away the winner if he bets into you.

If you push in and he's got a drawing hand, the bet would be big enough to force him to hit or bust. This means he's got to be a player willing to go all-in with a draw.

Plus, by pushing in, you can't get scared by the turn and make the mistake of throwing away the winner. It only lets him make the mistake of folding a possible winner.

Finally, I move in and hope that I'm right in thinking I have the best hand. If I get called and I'm wrong, I play it the same way next time.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Guy,

My tendency here is to peck-and-check. I have an overpair, yes, but not a secure one. If the BB has Jx or 44, I don't want to give away my stack. But neither do I want to give him a free ride if he's on a flush draw. Ironically, that pair of Js on board helps me against the flush draw, as he would not be drawing to the nut hand and needs better pot odds to justify chasing the flush.

So let's switch shoes for a minute and put me in the BB's situation, assuming I'm drawing to a flush:

I usually want 4:1 to chase a naked four-draw at the flop, with the extra overlay to cover the times I'll miss at the turn and have to fold. Here I'd want a lot better than that, because I can't count the A, K, Q, or 10 of my suit as secure outs. AJ, KJ, QJ, and JT are all common raising hands, so even if I hit my flush on an A, K, Q, or 10, I have to tread lightly in case he's filled up. Depending on my exact two cards, I have only 5 or 6 secure outs, not the usual 9 for a flush draw. So I'm only 8:1 to hit a secure flush on the turn, and only 6:1 to hit it by the river. I would want 7:1 to call at the flop, again with the overlay to cover the times I'll miss the turn and have to fold.

So ... returning to my QQ holding, I only need to bet 400 at this flop. That would give the BB just over 6:1 on his call (400 to win 2200), not enough to justify chasing what may be a dead flush.

That's the "peck" part of peck-and-check.

If he calls, I have to worry about his holding Jx or 44, and I'm shutting down, calling only if he bets small at the turn or river, and checking behind him if he checks.

Cris ... who did not rush through this post so maybe the math is actually right.

P.S.: If it's not, someone please correct me.

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

My answer is somewhat colored by the fact that most of my opponents know me to be a very aggressive player, and will thus trap in situations like this. Also, a lot of my opponents would call a pre-flop raise from the BB and take a flop on hands like JTs, QTs, AJ (suited or off), JJ, and of course 44, because they're disciplined enough to muck if it misses. So ... that factored into my reply, and if your opponents don't play that way, my strategy would not apply.

Cris

[William]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Guy McSucker]

Thanks to everyone for some interesting replies.

Here is what I was thinking when I posted. Consider the (perhaps) simpler situation in which you have aces rather than queens, and the flop comes JJ4 without a flush draw.

My knee-jerk move is to put the opponent all-in and expect to take the pot on the flop most of the time. I started to wonder if this is perhaps wrong, and that what I should do is check behind and attempt to induce a bluff or mistaken value bet from a worse hand.

If I move in, I will probably only be called if I am losing, so I win the pot when I'm ahead and lose most of my stack when I am behind. If I check behind and get a bet out of him on the turn, which I call, then I win his whole stack when I am ahead and lose mine when behind. This is 2000 chips better than the previous situation.

However, this overlooks the chance that he draws out. With AA and no flush draw, it's going to be hard for him to draw out: he can have at most two outs I think. So in this situation, I do believe that checking behind to induce a bluff is better than moving in.

With QQ, he can have six outs if he has AK, and in any case, aces and kings are scare cards for me, so I will probably have to fold on the turn if I check the flop, an A or K falls, and he bets.

I am undecided about whether checking the flop is better than moving in in this case.

With the flush draw out there, there are a lot of potential scare cards/outdraw cards available for my opponent, if I am currently ahead. Fifteen cards will scare me, and of course there may be two more that turn his lower pocket pair into a full house. I would now prefer to take my chances that I'm winning, and bet all-in.

Cris analysed how much to bet in order to make it a mistake for him to call when behind, which isn't very much because he can't be sure of having clean outs. William points out that this small bet is likely to induce a bluff from the opponent, because it screams weakness. A great many opponents might read the bet of 400 or 600 as saying "oh no! AK missed the flop again!".

For that reason, I am now swayed towards making this small bet! It has several effects:

- it's a mistake for the opponent to call on a flush draw or underpair
- it might induce a bluff from a weaker hand on this street, which is an excellent outcome, or on the turn, which is what we want to do if we can
- a lot of the time people will give up on the flop if they have missed, which is what the all-in bet would achieve
- if we're behind, we're going to lose our stack anyway, so nothing changes in that situation.

I am starting to conclude that this might be the best move. Bet 600 or so, and call if he raises or bets the turn. Still not sure though.

Guy.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I think there's little difference between aces and queens here. The chance that he just calls with KK is there, but I think most players reraise with that hand.

If there's no flush draw, that increases the chance that he's check a jack he would've called with preflop (say any suited jack with a broadway card). The problem is, that doesn't (IMO) increase that probability enough to warrant checking behind. If you check behind and he pushes in on the turn, it can just as easily be 99 as QJ, and now you've given him a free card if he has AK or Ax. I also would think that he's be just as likely to check the turn with AJs assuming that you didn't have a jack and figuring the second check would induce a bluff.

I guess that was just a long way of saying go ahead and push in if he checks. Odds are, you're ahead.

[Moonsugar]

William is going to think this post is a joke.

But I have to agree with the logic.

[Guy McSucker]

If you check behind and he pushes in on the turn, it can just as easily be 99 as QJ, and now you've given him a free card if he has AK or Ax.


Doesn't this change your play in the case you have AA?

You don't fear much in that case: if you're ahead on the flop, you're very likely to be staying ahead, so inducing a bluff must be better than pushing in.

Does the risk that he hits a two-outer with a lower pocket pair outweigh the gain of 2000 chips you get from checking the flop and getting him to bet the turn?

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

Why will William think it's a joke?

I think what he objected to was the idea that you bet small on the flop and fold to any action from the opponent. That does seem pretty crazy. Small bets reek of weakness so you might get action from many hands that you beat.

That's not what I'm advocating: I want to bet small to take the pot if I can, but sometimes to induce a bluff too. I am calling if he plays back at me either now or on the turn.

Guy.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Doesn't this change your play in the case you have AA?

True, you no longer fear the possible overcard, but other than that, what's the upside? You check behind, a blank comes on the turn and he bets. Same dilemma.

[JohnG]

Generally, I bet all-in with the QQ or AA. But if I considered my read to be very accurate, I could do something else.

If there were no draws, generally, I probably bet all-in with QQ, and check the AA. But ultimately it would depend on what possible hands I put that player on, and what I thought they would do in this particlular situation with hands I bury.

[SossMan]

Cris,
Correct me if I'm misunderstanding you here...
[ QUOTE ]
I usually want 4:1 to chase a naked four-draw at the flop, with the extra overlay to cover the times I'll miss at the turn and have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll assume by "naked four draw" you mean a flush/straight draw w/ no pair or any other redraws.
If that's the case, then even at 4:1, you don't have any overlay. 9 outs is about 4.2:1 on the turn. If you miss the turn then you recalculate what the pot is laying you and compare it to whatever turn bet you are faced with. You can't simply say "the odds of making my hand by the river are ~2:1, so if I call w/ 4:1 on the turn I have overlay". Each call has to be independent. This is so fundemental, that I'm sure that either I'm misunderstanding you, or it was a simple oversight. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[CrisBrown]

Hi SossMan,

We may indeed be misunderstanding each other.

Yes, when I say "naked four-draw" I mean a straight or flush draw, not in combination, and with no pair. Still, with a flush draw I have 15 outs to improve my hand: 9 for the flush, plus 3 each to pair my hole cards. So I'm roughly 1:3 to improve at the turn. But I may improve and still not call, e.g.: I might pair a hole card and have to fold to a big bet if there are scare cards on board. So I want more than the 3:1 to improve ... I want an overlay for the times I improve and still have to fold.

Does that help?

Cris

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Still, with a flush draw I have 15 outs to improve my hand: 9 for the flush, plus 3 each to pair my hole cards. So I'm roughly 1:3 to improve at the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will assume you meant 3:1? (actually, 15 outs is 32:15 =more like 2.1:1)

[ QUOTE ]
But I may improve and still not call, e.g.: I might pair a hole card and have to fold to a big bet if there are scare cards on board. So I want more than the 3:1 to improve ... I want an overlay for the times I improve and still have to fold.


[/ QUOTE ]
Why even count your pair cards as outs then? It seems like you're doing double math...if you count your extra 6 outs you only need 2:1, but you say you need an overlay of 4:1 for when you hit and still fold. Why not just count your clean outs and play it by ear when you pair up?
Also, don't the implied odds (amount of chips you can expect to be paid off when you hit) more than make up for the times you pair up and have to fold?
This makes more sense to me.
Anyway, thanks for the reply.
-Sossman

[William]

LOL, considering that you normally have like 30 seconds to act, I believe you would both have your hands folded; Clearly the weakest move /images/graemlins/grin.gif
Better to move in. LOL

PS.But very entertaining /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[SossMan]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif LOL

I know, isn't it funny that we spend all day calculating the EV of the call that was made on the assumption that the reverse implied pot odds clearly required a 2.5x times pot sized bet becasue of this opponent has seen 18.93% of the flops and his stack size is 1/3 mine so he is clearly pot committed.
And then we end up saying, "Wait, it's WPT night...I call."
/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[jw2k]

[ QUOTE ]
So let's switch shoes for a minute and put me in the BB's situation, assuming I'm drawing to a flush...

[/ QUOTE ]
Why check to the preflop raiser with a flush draw here? The only reason I could see is if you thought that the preflop raiser was playing very tight, and would only be in there with a premium pair that he/she wasn't going to let go of.

If I smooth called in the BB here and flopped a flush draw on this board, it's going to be a big one. Depending on where the raiser opened from, we're looking at Ah Kh (against early position) down through Ah Th, Kh Qh (against late position)... (some of these will be allin already some fraction of the time).

Such a hand on this board is (IMO) a powerful semibluffing hand. I would have between 7 and 15 outs if called, plus the added ability to represent a J forcing many hands to fold. What kind of hands will call a bet here? JJ, 44 and Jx, obviously. AA and KK most of the time. QQ likely. But I don't see many other hands making that call... and depending on the specific opponent and his opening position, he could have "alot" of hands which can't call here.

Or am I so far off here that I should cash out while I still can and put my money into the stock market?

[CrisBrown]

Hi jw2k,

In switching hats to decide what I'd want as the BB, I'm picking up with the situation he faces right here, right now. I don't get to take back his check; he already did it. So, assuming he has a flush draw, and that he checks to me, what how much of a bet would he be correct to call?

That was the only point of the exercise.

Cris

[JustPlayingSmart]

Guy,

I think your post is exactly right here. Sklansky even has an almost identical situation in TOP on pages 82-83. In situation #1, the player holds JJ with a rainbow flop of TT3. He says that betting here would be best because of the potential overcards that could fall. In situation #2, the player holds AA with the same flop. He says that checking could be best because there are not many turn cards that could scare you, and it disguises your hand. So, I think that there is a very big difference between QQ and AA in this situation if no flush draw is out. Assuming you plan to lose your stack to Jx...giving someone a free card on a 22-1 shot does not seem like a bad idea, especially if they don't have a pocket pair, but instead have a hand like AK and a K hits on the turn.

[sdplayerb]

QQ I pushin. If he has AJ, KJ etc, he got lucky and shouldn't have been in the pot especially when the raiser only has 5x the raise.
I'm not letting him hit an A or K.

If I have AA, I check for:
1. If he has a J i am done anyway
2. if he has a k or q and one hits i can break him.

I'm not betting small to let him try to suck out with QQ. Even if he isn't getting the odds to call a small bet, chips won are worth less than chips lost. That extra 400 or so meeans little compared to that 800-950 in the pot plus the 1200 you have.

[jw2k]

Hi Cris,

Thanks. The reason I ask is that, if I were sitting at the table, I would read the BB's check on this board to mean he doesn't have a flush draw. Assuming that I can ingore the voice in my head which is saying "me have overpair, me bet allin...", I'd then need to put the BB on a range of hands which he might smooth call with in the BB, then check to me on the flop, which likely excludes flush draws. Since we're dealing with a generic opponent here, I'll add to my read on that he doesn't have AA, KK or AK. That leaves smaller pairs, JJ (1 way), TT-77 (24 ways), AQ (16 w/ flush draw), AJ (8) if he's playing reasonably tight against what I assume is my EP raise... If I add KJ (8) to his hands, I would also add KQ (8 w/ flush draw) to his possible holdings. If I've done this right, I'm somewhere between a 2.8:1 and 4.4:1 favorite to be ahead at this point. This drops slightly if my read of his check is correct,... and likely improves the later position I open from, since he'll be more apt to call preflop with hands I beat and reraise preflop with hands I don't.

Elsewhere in this thread I said that if I held AA or KK and there were no flush draw out there, then I would check behind to induce a bluff on the turn from a weaker hand. After having a couple days to think about this, and sitting down this morning to "do the math", I now think its a better play to check behind with QQ as well, and call any turn bet, even if a flush card hits. I think I would be inclinded to muck if an A fell and he pushed in, though I might have to flip a coin to make that decision.

I guess one obvious criticism here is whether this so called "generic" player would smooth call preflop with something like TT-77, then check on a "favorable" flop of JhJc4h.

Thoughts?

jw

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually want 4:1 to chase a naked four-draw at the flop, with the extra overlay to cover the times I'll miss at the turn and have to fold. Here I'd want a lot better than that, because I can't count the A, K, Q, or 10 of my suit as secure outs. AJ, KJ, QJ, and JT are all common raising hands, so even if I hit my flush on an A, K, Q, or 10, I have to tread lightly in case he's filled up. Depending on my exact two cards, I have only 5 or 6 secure outs, not the usual 9 for a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the BB is on a flush draw, he almost certainly already has two of these (A K Q T) in his hand, so he can count on almost all of his flush cards to be good.

[ QUOTE ]
So ... returning to my QQ holding, I only need to bet 400 at this flop. That would give the BB just over 6:1 on his call (400 to win 2200), not enough to justify chasing what may be a dead flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

First off, like other posters have said, this kind of calculation is far from likely to be happening at the table in 15 seconds. But, playing along... do you really bet 400 even though you know with QQ you actually only hold 1 flush card that fills you up?

And if we're assuming he has a flush draw, do you really want to give a cheap draw to someone who has K /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif or A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif?

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls, I have to worry about his holding Jx or 44, and I'm shutting down

[/ QUOTE ]

You're advocating putting almost half your stack in, flopping an overpair and letting your opponent walk away with this pot without showing you his cards?

I'm sorry, but that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. What would I do? Push it.