4/8 hand: How should I be playing a small flush?

I was playing 4/8 Hold'em at the Monte Carlo in Las Vegas this afternoon. I flopped a type of hand which I have difficulty understanding how to play correctly and, as a result, I tend to get into a scared-calling mode.


The game is a typical 4/8 game with several loose players and a few solid players.


I'm on the button with 7d6d. Four players limp ahead of me and I call. The small blind (definitely loose-aggresive)and big blind play the hand as well.


The flop is Ad Kd 4c


The SB bets. He's loose-aggressive but not foolish. I feel confident in putting him on either top pair (with any kicker) or a flush/straight draw. Three middle position players call and so do I. Should I be raising in late position with this type of four-flush?


The turn is Ad Kd 4c Qd


The SB bets again. All three middle position players call.


This is where I have difficulty deciding on the correct play and go into my scared-calling mode. I've made my hand and can't improve. But is a 7-high flush going to take this pot when there is a bettor and three callers ahead of me? Many players in these games will play any two suited cards so I could be up against 8d2d or some other "weak" holding which will beat me. I'm happy to see that the three diamonds on the board are the three biggest possible but I'm still not feeling confident.


In this situation, should I be raising to charge any single diamonds (J,10,9,8) an extra bet to see the river card even though they probably won't fold? Should I be raising simply for value because I'm likely to have the best hand?


Results will be posted later.

Flush under flush is rare. Wait until you have represented your hand and THEN get raised, then pay it off, no shame in that.


When a player who plays lots of weak hands makes a hand he likes its MUCH more likely to be a moderate one than a strong one. In this case since none of the callers raised you really only have to worry about the SB. But you are getting 4:1 for your raise.


- Louie

On the flop, with 2 diamonds on board you should have raised from the button. this is a good opportunity to try and buy a free card if your flush card doesn't hit on the turn, adds deception value, and increases the pot so single pairs might even call if the flush does hit. I wouldn't be worried too much about another flush - many players will stay with Ax suited or Kx suited - but those are both on board alreay.


on the turn after the diamond does hit - raise to see where you stand - plus make any single diamond (probably a J or T) pay to stay around for the 7/45 diamond draw. Given the texture of this hand (positions, raises, players), it seems like you were ahead at the turn, but if another diamond falls you'll probably lose. the sb might even work with your raise to knock a higher flush out and then you can just call any bets on the river.

good luck.

I agree with MAC completely. Raise on flop for free card, bet on turn if you make flush (which you did) call raises.


Napa Scott

Concurring with other responses, I'd raise on the button on the flop. Strict math says you're losing a tiny bit of EV, because you're getting not quite 4:1, and not all 4 other players may call the raise, but you gain deception, you get to see where you're at. For example, if the SB re-raised I believe you could very safely put him on something large, either AA, KK, or AK probably.


On the turn, you would raise for value. You will sometimes be 2nd best -- and you will often be reraised if the person is sure (such as someone holding JdTd, who would have had a straight

draw, a flush draw, and the straight flush draw -- and

would have made their straight flush). If a very tight player

reraised, you could throw away if you were fairly sure they

weren't putting a play on you, otherwise you could check and call to showdown. Of course, if there was a caller between the

re-reraise and you, and these players aren't idiots, it would be fairly safe to toss the hand. My $.02. I have a strange

feeling the results are going to include an mid position limper holding JdTd and calling to keep everyone in the hand or to induce a raise from you so they could reraise.

I disagree with your math. Remember that the player is almost always going to the river with this hand, so he has a positive EV when 4 people call his raise. The cutoff should be 3 or more for profitably. Here's why in fuzzy math...


Chance of player making flush by the river: = 9/47 + (9/46)*(1-9/47) ~ 35.0%


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Chance 2 diamonds hit so player can be beaten by a single diamond: = 9/47 * 8/46 ~ 3.3%


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Chance another player has a single diamond that beats you when 2 more diamonds hit:


5 diamonds beat you.


chance that both diamonds are > 7 = .278 (opponent has 3 ways to win)


chance both are < 6 = .148 (opponent has 5 ways to win)


remaining = .574 (opponent has 4 ways to win)


weighted probability = 3*.278 + 5*.148 + 4*.574 = 3.87


so effectively your opponent can hold 3.87 cards which beat you when two diamonds hit, so the chance you are beaten is pretty good with a decent number of opponents. It's not 100% or near, however. I am not going to do the calculation for this. There are too many assumptions you have to make to get to a number, and it's a pain anyway. I just wanted to show that the effect of the four flush was necessary to consider, but the entire 3.3% is actually not deducted from your chances of winning.


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Chance that another player makes a better flush when a flush card hits assuming all players at the table play any 2 suited cards:


you know where the Ad, Kd, 6d, and 7d are so:


8 Qx of diamonds + 7 Jx of diamonds + 6 Txd + 5 9xd + 4 8xd

= 30


but you have to account for the fact that another diamond has hit...so there are less than 30 possible holdings


If the card is 8d-Qd, it takes away 8 possibilities.

If the card is 2d-5d, it takes away 5 possibilities.

average = ((8*5)+(5*4))/9 = 6.667


so for our purposes there are (30-6.67) = 23.33 starting hands that have you beat when a flush hits


possible starting hands = 52*51 / 2 = 1326


23.33/1326 = .0176 = chance each other player has a higher suited diamond hand.


Total chance = .0176 + .0176 * (1-.0176) + ... blah blah blah for 9 players. Let's just approximate this one as it gets a little messy to get the exact answer.


~ 15%


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There's also the chance that someone makes a full house, quads, etc, when you make your flush. Lets overestimate and say this will happen 10% of the time.


so your chances of winning this hand on the flop are at least:


Chance of making a flush - chance a 4-flush hits - chance your opponent has a higher flush - chance your are beaten by a monster hand.


.35 - .033 - (.35)(.15) - (.35)(.10) = .230


This shows the break even point is, at most, half way between 3 and 4 callers. However, I overestimated in a lot of places so you should be making a profit with even 3 opponents. Anyhow, it proves you will be making money by raising 4 opponents with a flush draw, with the added (HUGE) bonus of getting a free card on the turn.

Needless to say, I chickened out on the turn and only called. Otherwise, I wouldn't have posted this hand. I definitely will be playing more aggressive with this type of hand in the future, especially from late position.


The river was Ad Kd 4c Qd 7s


This time the small blind checked and I immediately planned to bet when it got around to me. However, then the player to my immediate right bet ahead of me and I thought I was either beaten or would make more money with an overcall rather than a raise. I called. The small blind and another player called.


The small blind turned over a pair of Aces, the MP mucked (or I just didn't see his cards because I was anxious about the player to my immediate right), the player to my right turned over two pair and my flush took the pot.


As a side note, the player to my right had the 10d and said he was nearly jumping out of his seat as the river card came. He's never had a Royal Flush.


Next time, it's going to be more expensive for them.

I would raise the flop and take the free card on the turn. Once the flush hits you need to raise and charge the single diamonds to draw out on you.


This hand leads to the question:


Why play 76s if you are not going to aggressively attack the pot when you hit your hand?


Be committed to winning with your starting hands or muck them.


KJS

You have to raise the turn here. Why take the draw unless you

think you will get paid off. If you get 3 bet, then call it

down unless a 4th diamond hits.


You also can raise on the flop because you have 4 bets in front

of you when it is your turn. But, I prefer to raise with a nut

str8 or a flush draw. In this case, you did not have the nut

flush draw. If you call the flop, raise if you hit the hand.

My thoughts exactly.


regards


jazzman

On a regular basis i am at a low limit table (either 3-6, or 5-10), and the table is so loose that i am getting run over.

I can not seem to get a hand to stand up.

I can change tables, but it does not seem to help too much.


Is there a low limit game out there that is tightish?


I guess my only recourse is to build up a bank roll, and move to the higher limits.


Is this a common problem for tight players playing the lower limits?