Analyze this hand from different perspectives

[morgant]

This hand took place, i will give you everyone's hole cards and the flop and ask for your actions for each respective player, then follow up with the turn and river. 2+2 table from a few weeks ago.

Folded to middle position who limps with 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB completes with 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif, and the BB checks with A /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Flop comes 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Now how should everyone play and what do you think the flop action looked like. If you were one of the other two in this hand...shhhhh.

[2000Flushes]

55 should bet out, Q8 call, AA raise , 55 3-bet, Q8 calls (while swearing to himself), AA Caps, all call (Q8 swears again and hopes he isnt up against A9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif)

[daveymck]

Based on responnses to my hand from last nights table and my running saga with trips I think ;

55 should bet out (looking to 3 bet if possible)
Q8 should raise
AA will probably be thinking oh no but at this point has to three bet 55 will then cap (but probably be worrying about trip 9's) all call and onto the turn with a nice juicy big pot.

However this being the 2+2 table I suspect come people may have tried to be tricky.

[morgant]

BB aa bet, MP 55 raised, SB four flush 3-bet(?), BB capped. Now the SB's play seems a bit suspect(after the fact), and what do you read each player as having, and how do you proceed from now when the k /images/graemlins/club.gif falls on the turn?

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
However this being the 2+2 table I suspect come people may have tried to be tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't take this into consideration, in fact, I feel this hand was played staight forward.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[daveymck]

This is hard as you have given us all the info but here goes.

SB - has too choices check call or bet out and jam hoping to hit an out, knows he is behind but is going to the river. I think given the action on the flop he should bet out, if he doesnt he may be faced with a 2 bet cold call if mp trie to raise again to isolate, betting here may get him the next card cheaply.

AA - Suspects the draw is out there is hoping the other player is holding tptk but is probably worried about 99 being out there or a two pair. Has to raise though make the draw pay.

55 - Will probably assume a draw is there too suspect with action on the flop is slightly worried about 99 and now KK but is hoping its tptk, three bets.

back to SB who calls, AA calls as well hand is hidden but has been two 3 bets on each street so may feel hand is vunerable.

[2000Flushes]

oops I misread the order /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[daveymck]

and stupidly I saw your order and used it for mine as well.

[yenforyen]

I like the SB raise because now MP has to worry about a set of nines, and SB will probably win if his card hits. Rockets also must be holding onto his privates as he caps, and tighter when the K falls. Since this is 2+2 table I'm sure a similar betting pattern materialized after the turn.

[Analyst]

OK, in the right order: /images/graemlins/smile.gif

SB bets his 4-flush
BB raises AA to try and knock out any further draws
MP calls with his set, figuring any draws which will call 2 bets will call three and he may as well wait to raise the turn. If the turn is a spade, he can go into call mode or fold.
SB calls the single raise.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Now the SB's play seems a bit suspect(after the fact),

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[ QUOTE ]
and what do you read each player as having, and how do you proceed from now when the k falls on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume he read them for both having overpairs as a limp in EP on the 2+2 table always rings bells. I also assume his check-raise 3-bet was to represent a set such as 99 and jam his draw. After the flop cap he knows he is surely behind a monster Overpair and posibly a set. So checking the turn if his draw misses seems fine to me.

Just MY thoughts,
Joe Tall

[morgant]

i can understand betting a draw for semi-bluff or pot sweetening purposes, however, the sb can tell by the action that these other two have either big hands or bigger draws, the sb is drawing to the 3rd nut. the sb is a big dog to just an overpair and much bigger dog to a set, i would like to understand the logic in 3 betting into this strength with just a draw that could possibly lose even if it hits? yes there is semi-bluffing but one of its allures is the idea to get your opponents to fold and i think clearly here there is no way the sb is getting 1 of the other two to fold much less both of them. also i have not gotten too proficient with pot odds and am going to make a conscious effort to work that into my game, so if any can work some odds numbers into this hand would be great too. i guess i am basically saying is it a standard play to 3 bet a non nut draw into this strength?

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
the sb is a big dog to just an overpair

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it is that big of a dog. In fact the 3-hands as they are, AA is the biggest dog on this flop.

[ QUOTE ]
possibly lose even if it hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no chance that a higher suited hand limped in this game. That's an easy read.

[ QUOTE ]
a standard play to 3 bet a non nut draw into this strength?

[/ QUOTE ]

The non-nut is mute via my above statement. I feel in this game the play very well could be.

What do you think the action should be on the flop, BTW? I think SB played it fine. Surely he can't call 2 cold, TWICE?! If he does, he should flip his cards up. Do you think he should fold a 4-flush?!??!??!

Granted he realized that he was behind a set and has to check the turn if a blank hits right?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

pokenum -h qs 8s - 5c 5s - ah ac -- 5h 2s 9s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9s 2s 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 8s 248 27.46 655 72.54 0 0.00 0.275
5s 5c 603 66.78 300 33.22 0 0.00 0.668
Ac Ah 52 5.76 851 94.24 0 0.00 0.058


Now that I think about it maybe the SB should lead the turn if a blank hits hoping to freeze the BB and MP, you think? Fat chance of that at this table.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[morgant]

if there were not set the sb is a big dog to an overpair that was what i referring to. this is exactly what i am trying to explore....how much of a standard play is it to bet draws such as this and how hard, i feel these plays have become routine and well it is obvious that you and i are the main suspects in this hand, i was trying to pound you for it. so the flush draw was no secret, so i am asking with a flush draw and the odds against you, why put in extra bets? when the flush hit the river action stopped as it would have if the flush came on the turn, so is it a long term profitable play to jam it because the numbers are against the spade hitting, especially with one potential out in the sets hand. i really like this hand, if this were a normal stakes table would the action have played the same?

[rharless]

OK, I'll give it a shot.

Flop:
SB (Q8s) bet... a bit for value, a bit to clean up pair outs, but mostly for info, who knows, maybe they fold
BB (AA) raise (could call to pop the turn, but I wouldn't with two opponents, one who likes his hand enough to bet and then the other who suspiciously open-limps, which can be warning signals at this table)
MP (55) 3-bet; 3-betting is done on this table with much less than a set, and one of the two blinds is possibly on a spade draw so might as well get the max from them
SB (Q8s) cold call -- set up for a turn C/R if flush arrives b/c 2+2ers are so afraid of not-value-betting that c/r'ing a flush is easier than normal at this table
BB (AA) cap -- could easily have the best hand here

Turn:
SB (Q8s) check
BB (AA) bet
MP (55) raise
SB (Q8s) ugh, getting 5:1 so call but really hope BB doesn't three-bet; if spade comes on river, bet b/c no one will fall for C/R after this cold call
BB (AA) call, check-call the non-A river

[Joe Tall]

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 8s 380 38.38 610 61.62 0 0.00 0.384
Ac Ah 610 61.62 380 38.38 0 0.00 0.616

Is this what you mean by BIG?

[morgant]

otay, so big might be a bit of a streeeeeeeeetch.

[Joe Tall]

[Joe Tall]

I feel you agree that I (the SB) can not fold.

I feel you agree that my read that there is no higher flush draw, "limping in" here is valid.

Knowing both of these facts do you think that calling 2 cold twice is a good play? Do you think that if I called 2 cold twice that if a /images/graemlins/spade.gif hit the turn would I be able to get into a raising war?

BTW, I think the AA hand played horribly. I knew you had a set on the turn, no doubt.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[morgant]

I sort of agree the SB can not fold. After the flop the pot is pretty large. I think it is valid that you believe yourself to have locked up the flush draw, however, your hand is not made. So what is wrong with betting out on the flush draw and then cold calling any action when you are clearly behind at this point. It seems to be a very negative EV play to be raising in this spot. I cant speak for the bb, but i would have done everything in my power to check down the hand if a spade fell, so in my mind regardless of your flop play a raising war was mute, unless the bb helped you with that conquest. The turn brought you no help. And the action said you were defineately chasing spades now. you checked, bb bet, i raised my set of 5's, you called, bb 3 bet, i capped, and you called 2 cold again. Now if one knows he is behind two strong hands, why raise into them on the come? that is what i am not understanding. in hindsight you played beautifully cause a spade fell on the river, bet it, and we both called. i am very happy with the way i played, i bet the poo out of my hand until it was beaten, i am just still very puzzled by 3 betting the flop, what did you think you were playing against on the flop. did you feel maybe a queen would have made your hand good? i am starting to ramble.........later bro.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
I sort of agree the SB can not fold

[/ QUOTE ]

You 'sort of' agree?!? /images/graemlins/crazy.gif How do you do that? True or false, should I fold? You know the correct answer, stop dancing around it.

[ QUOTE ]
And the action said you were defineately chasing spades now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then how did I manage to get 2 callers? I am still amazed by this.

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to be a very negative EV

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have time, I'll try to crunch numbers however, I think the play is positive EV. And considering how you use 'huge dog' I think 'very negative' has to be close to neutral.

[ QUOTE ]
The turn brought you no help. And the action said you were defineately chasing spades now. you checked, bb bet, i raised my set of 5's, you called, bb 3 bet, i capped, and you called 2 cold again. Now if one knows he is behind two strong hands, why raise into them on the come? that

[/ QUOTE ]

You state the turn action, then talk about my flop action. Um, it's a little difficult to answer such a question, ya think?

I can make a quick post on my exact thoughts on this hand and help you understand.

However, I've asked several times, what were your thoughts? Some reason you seem to be avoiding that one too.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

Preflop:

Hmmmmmm morgant open-limps. Could be the AA/KK trap, or some small pair, wow, folded to me, I'll complete getting 5:1. That's odd the BB hesitated then checked.

Flop:

Great a 4-flush! A check and a bet from limper and I'll check-raise my draw and build a pot. Bleh, BB bet and has the 9, now morgant raises, he has AA, so I'm not far behind. I can't call 2-cold, I'd be flipping over my cards. Raise and jam-it up, hopefully they'll think I have 55 or 99. Now the BB caps?!? Maybe he has KK?

Turn:

BB bets out (Definate overpiar), morgant raises, oh no morgant has a set and BB does have the overpair. So call. BB raises? That poor kid tried to trap us and going to over play this one. morgant raises again, yup, set. Call.

Don't pair the board, don't pair the board, don't pair...
BAM!

Flush. They'll check it through after calling 2 cold twice, so bet and hope they both overcall. Wow they both called, ship it.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[morgant]

i say sort of because i am not sure when the odds are not there to chase a flush draw and that is more a question than a statement. i have said what i was thinking the whole time, i was up against a flush draw and two pair or overpair. i pounded my best hand all that i could until the flush came through, i would not have felt comfortable folding the river for one more bet with a pot like that, so i made the crying call. to clarify sort of agree, ok betting the flop on your draw is a decent play, but you have to smell being behind at this point, which you admit, so how can putting more of your money in the pot be a +EV play when you have a ~28% chance of winning the hand on the flop, and calling four bets on the turn when you have a ~17% chance of winning? in previous posts you keep asking should i call two cold twice? you did on the turn, hypothetically, if you knew it would take 4 bets to get through the turn would you have layed down your hand? i am trying to explore how far chasing this sort of hand is justified, as i already stated i play by feel and a general sense of probabilities of making my outs, however that is a part of my game that i really need to concentrate on, so i am asking what do you need the pot to be offering to make the play/s you did during this hand. it just feels like an awefully expensive flush to be chasing, are two other players enough to make the pot rich enough for the chase?

[daveymck]

Joe

What was your mindset on this, was your plan in the early rounds to value bet you draw or was the intent to try and get a cheaper river card?

You knew you were behind all the way and had a good idea what the others were holding were you trying to slow them down?

[daveymck]

But surely in a big pot like this odds go out of the window? He has to cold call two bets but he has a draw which if hits (and doesnt pair the board) he drags the pot?

I cant see anyway after staying in this pot to the turn with a four flush that I am not seeing the turn card. I suspect with his play he was trying to see the river card for 1 or 2 bets which didnt happen but he is with you all the way.

In a huge pot if you have a piece of it and a chance to the best hand surely you have to call?

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
What was your mindset on this, was your plan in the early rounds to value bet you draw or was the intent to try and get a cheaper river card?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought my 'thoughts' reply explained it all. I got trapped on the flop and didn't want to easily give up my hand. I tried to represent a set but had outs to drag it for sure.

[ QUOTE ]
You knew you were behind all the way and had a good idea what the others were holding were you trying to slow them down?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup.

Read my 'thoughts' again, slower I guess. It's all in there, I think.

What do you think of the play?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[daveymck]

Read your thoughts thread, its all in the interpretation, minds are all different, could understand what you did just wanted to check the intent.

For my opinion I think it was a thinking agressive play that worked and didnt work. It worked cos the pot was huge and your card hit and they still called the river AA must have known he was behind? but if failed in a way as you still paid through the nose to see the last card.

As I replied to morgant you were calling to see the river card whther you had to pay 1 or 4bb's havent worked out the odds but in a huge pot like this where you can get the best hand you have to see all 5 cards whether its with the flush draw, straight draw or even with two pair hoping for the full house I can not envisage folding this.

If its a small pot then its a different story.