What do you think of this flop call?

[BugsBunny]

Earlier tonight - Prima Poker 1/2 - table is playing loose, and a little -(not overly) aggressive.

Hero is UTG with 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Preflop:
Hero limps, EP3 limps, MP1 limps, MP2 raises, CO calls, BB calls, all limpers call.

Flop (12 SB after rake): A /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
BB, Hero, EP3, MP1 check. MP2 bets (at this point I put him as most likely on Ax with x being a K,Q,or J - I'm almost certain he doesn't have the flush).
All call (I think that if the 4th club hits my flush may be good, and I also think I'm getting a nice overlay for this. plus I might hit my set - which may or may not be good. Good decision or bad?)

Turn(8.4 BB): 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif [A /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif]

The plot thickens - I now have on OESD
checked to the raiser. MP2 bets. Folded to hero who raises. MP2 calls (I would have probably called a reraise here - but would have thought it more likely that he had AA if he did that.)

River(12BB): 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif [6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif [A /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif]]

Hero bets, MP2 calls

Results in white below:
<font color="white">I show the str8 and he mucks - MHIG</font>

[JohnShaft]

All call (I think that if the 4th club hits my flush may be good)

5 callers to the Turn and you think the 7-hi flush might be good? I think that's a little optimistic Bugs, to say the least. And if that's a fair part of the reason you want to stay in then I think it's even more of a case to fold. (If you'll put another 2 BB's in with a 7 hi flush you're a braver man than me).

I fold getting 14+ to 1 because:
1. My flush is 7 hi, against like 4 callers
2. I can hit my set on the Turn and lose to a Flush on the River (or even a straight) easy as pie.
3. I've got yucky position.
4. Two left to call who could checkraise. You have to fold and lose your SB, or pay another SB with a vain hope of winning.
5. The flush could be already made
6. MP2 could already have a set of A's.
7. No doubt many more even more dubious reasons, that, all added together, give me more than enough excuse to fold and not lose any more money.

[JDErickson]

I would have folded the flop. 7 high flush not going to win. You are probably behind right now.

Jim

[ProfLupin]

I would fold this preflop UTG at a table that is slightly aggressive.

I would also fold the flop for reasons already mentioned.

[BugsBunny]

Well I figure that there's roughly a 1/3 chance that none of them have a club that can beat me if the 4 flush comes.

There's only 5 clubs in the deck that I have to worry about. I know for a fact that an Ax of clubs isn't being played because the A is on the board.

So yes, I do think that my 7 high flush stands a chance if the 4 flush comes. I'm willing to risk 1 SB to see what the turn brings, and then re-evaluate. If I get c/r on the flop then I'm history - I assume the flush is already made.

Now if I'm playing tougher opposition then the thinking would change - but there's some very weak players at the table.

Yes I could be behind to a set of A's - but in that case he can't have a club.

But with all that said I agree that it's a very marginal call - and one that I wouldn't consistently make. I just thought the odds and opposition in this case justified one card to see what happens and then re-evaluate.

[BugsBunny]

Note that this is a mid pair and not a small pair. Also in HEPFAP it's stated that pairs can stand a bit of action while suited connectors need very passive conditions.

[Ed Miller]

I would fold this preflop UTG at a table that is slightly aggressive.

This is poor advice. Unless you can expect the action to be capped before the flop, you should be seeing the flop with sevens in these micro games. People just give up too much after the flop not to play.

[trillig]

You think your 7c is good enough for a possible FOUR FLUSH BOARD with that many in the pot? HAHA Your table mates love you too....

[Side note: Tonite in fact, I watched 7h win 2 consecutive pots [B&amp;M] with 4 flushes on board, but I still think the notion is out of line. /images/graemlins/grin.gif]

I later beat one of the 7h's with my Kh to his Qh, on a surprize return of the 4 heart flush board, I had KhKd and would have won anyhow sans flush.

-t

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
So yes, I do think that my 7 high flush stands a chance if the 4 flush comes. I'm willing to risk 1 SB to see what the turn brings, and then re-evaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly are you planning to reevaluate? Do you think that anyone with a 9,T, or J of clubs will start betting like crazy if the fourth club hits? Players with less than the second nut, singleton flush usually are happy enough to check and call. You will likely have no idea whether your flush is good or not.




[ QUOTE ]
Now if I'm playing tougher opposition then the thinking would change - but there's some very weak players at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, if this is true, then I would be even more inclined to fold on the flop, since "very weak players" love to play hands like K9o, QTo, etc., making it more likely that a higher club is lurking around.




[ QUOTE ]
. I just thought the odds and opposition in this case justified one card to see what happens and then re-evaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]


Both the odds you are getting to draw to your weak flush and even weaker third pair, and the nature of your opposition, makes this an easy muck on the flop.

[bernie]

i agree with mr shaft.

you really think with this many callers your 7 will be good if the flush hits? give me a break. if it was a 2 tone board i may call since a set wont make the flush. remember that concept? here the flush is already possible. id want a bigger overlay for this. especially since i know a bet is likely coming on the turn. meaning you're looking at possibly 3 sbs at least to make a hand for the runner.

you say the raiser may have Ax(J,Q or K). he may not have the flush, but his kicker could easily be the flush card in this case.

the turn

why would a reraise be AA? man, you're optimistic. with a flush possible, youd be representing a waking up and betting pattern of a slowplayed flush yourself. any hand 3 betting, unless it's somewhat maniacal, has you beat.

not sure id have c/r the turn here. unless you thought you could buy it right there. if not, i wouldnt do it.

b

[josie_wales]

I am out on the flop.

I would say why, but shaft's response covers everything (and much more) that I was going to say.

In the long run, this is a huge -EV situation. (At least it seems so to me)

[BugsBunny]

Upon further reflection and a good nights sleep you all win. It was a bad call on the flop that happened to go good.

But just so you know how bad some of these players are - if you bet into a 4 flush some of them will routinely call down with nothing but bottom pair.

[TheRake]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold this preflop UTG at a table that is slightly aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sheesh...are there any hands except AA or KK that you will play pre-flop? This seems to be your advice on to many posts.

TheRake