What's your river action?

[Joe Tall]

10/20 Foxwoods - loose passive, perfect game.

UTG limps, OK player limps, I limp w/Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (no I didn't raise), CO limps, Button limps, SB (tricky) completes, BB checks.

Flop:

J /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

All check to me and I bet, CO folds, Button calls, tricky calls, BB folds, UTG folds, OK player calls.

Turn: J /images/graemlins/club.gif

All check to me and I check, button checks.

River: K /images/graemlins/club.gif

Now the SB (tricky) bets, the OK player calls...



Comments appreciated, results tomorrow.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[JohnShaft]

Hmmm, I was going to say Call Joe, but now I don't know.

Unless Tricky flopped two pair AJ/J9, and checked it twice then he'd have to have rivered his Kojack.
As such I think a plain Jack, or maybe even just an Ace or King, is more likely.

You have a much stronger hand than he will give you credit for after checking the Turn (especially as the draw expected will be the hearts). So I think he bets for value "knowing he's not going to get raised".

I think I'd probably raise.
I'm not totally sure though.

[ike]

At first this seems like an obvious raise, and that was my response to the poll, but the more I think about this situation the more complicated it gets. The turn/river action looks an awful lot like sb may have missed a cr attempt, but even if thats the case it doesn't automatically mean he has a full house. In fact, since he didn't bet or checkraise the flop you can probably discount aj, j9, or a flopped set (I'm making the possibly invalid assumption that he wouldn't slowplay two pair or a set on a flop with so many possible draws). KJ is a possible hand but so is any other jack if the failed checkraise read is correct. Alternatively, is it possible that his bet is a desperation bluff after missing his heart draw? Also, what the heck is OK player calling with here. One very strong possibility it seems to me is that he also holds the Q 10, though some random pair is probably more likely. If all he has is a pair, how likely is he to pay off the raise? Same question applies to the sb, is he automatically paying off your raise? If he's on some moronic bluff then no, with trips yes, but on pairs it could be questionable. With a full house he is almost garaunteed to reraise and you'll be forced to pay off. All told, estimating the EV of this raise seems to be very complicated and in any case I think its probably close. My gut says go with the raise though. Sorry for the longwinded response, and if anybody thinks that what I've said is way off please let me know. I've only been playing about 6 months and have never played higher than 3/6 so I'm sure theres a lot I'm not taking into account.

[Mike Gallo]

Call. Tricky player could have AJ for a boat.

[Homer]

Put it this way...the two people who voted for call should be shot.

-- Homer

[ike]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but why isn't it at least a little close?

[Mike Gallo]

Put it this way...the two people who voted for call should be shot.

You have a point. Tricky player would check raise if he held the nuts.

I change my answer to raise.

[ike]

He'd checkraise even though the previous street had been checked through? Is tricky code for terrible?

[Trix]

It was checked through on the turn and your straight is pretty well hidden. You say he is tricky...dont you think he will try to take this down with less than a boat ?

[GuyOnTilt]

You guys are way overthinking this. Calling here is mucho weak-tight, especially with the presence of another caller. Fearing the nuts after the lack of action on previous streets isn't called for yet. Raise the freaking river. Sure, sometimes you'll get 3-bet and be shown a failed c/r attempt on the turn, but more often than that, you'll be shown 2 inferior hands. Over-calling here is horrible.

GoT

[ike]

Yes, he's very likely to be trying to take this down with less than the nuts. But that alone isn't enough justification to raise, he has to be likely to have a hand good enough to call but not a full house. In fact, since you're paying off raises, you have to get more than twice as many calls from losing hands as raises, situations where you raise and he mucks his bluff you've gained nothing by raising. I don't see why its obvious that he's on exactly two pair or trips that often.

[Homer]

Uhh, yeah. What he said.

-- Homer

[yenforyen]

I think you have to raise. If tricky's really tricky he may reraise with 3 Js (which is what I think he has, with a Q) and you'll have to pay off to see them. I think the turn probably was a failed c/r. If I get beat with this hand I just tap the table and say nice hand.

[Joe Tall]

I raised, they both called. OK player showed QJ and the SB mucked.

I am also sure the OK player missed a check-raise, maybe even the SB also on the turn.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Ed Miller]

I don't get this post. Why wouldn't I raise?

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get this post. Why wouldn't I raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did. There is no question to raise. I posted it as an example.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Homer]

I still can't believe 7 out of 40 votes were for call. Could the 7 people who are weak-tighter than me please explain why they wouldn't raise this river?

-- Homer

[Joe Tall]

Wow I didn't read the results. I'm not surprised however and this is why I posted it.

For those 7 people, raise the river.

Peace,
Joe Tall