Plugging a leak

I've discovered a leak in my game that I'd like some thoughts about. I'm a fairly tight, aggressive, mostly winning LL player (3/6-6/12). Been playing for almost 3 years, and my sense is that I play well before the flop, on the flop and turn, and poorly on the river. I feel that I'm losing big bets and I'd like some thoughts on this analysis...


When I hit a (presumably) leading, non-nuts hand, I'll drive it on flop and turn to force chasers to pay and try to win early. However, I find that I too often check it down on the river, fearing a chaser catching me and thus losing two bets in the process. For example, I start with AQ, flop is Q,8,7. I'll bet or raise flop. Turn 3 (no flushes). I'll bet again. River 9 (no flushes). I still have top pair, ace kicker, but I'm afraid to bet for fear of straight or two pair.


Can someone help with how you make the decision to bet, check or call there? I have a pretty good understanding of pot odds and probability, so I'm just looking for some basic principles, assuming you don't have a ton of information about the other players (that is the wild card, I know).


Thanks.

This is an aspect of my game I've been working on lately as well. If you just want some very crude rules, here goes:


Out of position: If I'm going to call I bet. If I'm raised I call

with my better hands and fold my worse.


With position: If it's checked to me and I have top-pair or better. I bet. I might bet middle pair/good kicker as well.


Obviously these rules are very crude. You of course would have to factor your opponent into the equation.


Generally I feel that river value betting is self promoting in the sense that the more you do it, the more you can do it. If for instance you'll bet for value every time you have middle pair or better they'll have to call you every time with middle pair or better. (Over simplified example I know, but you get the idea.)


Sincerely, Andreas

Good thought - I hadn't really considered the "image" angle, likely because I play mostly online and don't have enough consistent competition to gain value from an image. I absolutely agree with that thought, however.

I too mostly play online. At full tables I agree, it isn't that important. The 5 max tables are a different story however.


Sincerely, Andreas

I think the answer to this question is that you need to bet! You've been playing solid hands, so make your opponent pay to beat you. You might even make him fold the better hand! Take your straight example: if your opponent has made the straight on the river, he or she will raise you. If you get raised (unless your opponent is very tricky) you can be pretty sure you are beat and fold. If your opponent doesn't have the straight he will either fold or call with trips or a lower hand. If show good cards when the hand has been called, this will ad to your reputation. What if you opponent would have made trips on the turn or river but thought YOU had made the straight? You could get a better hand to lay down against you! Yes, you will lose some of these hands, but odds are you will win more because you will make inexperienced players fold. After they lose a couple of hands against you they will be more hesitant to bet and then you even try an occasional bluff to steal the blinds.


Good luck!

According to TOP, you should bet when you figure to win about about 55% of the time that you are called (the extra 5% is supposed to account for the possibility of a raise). Bear in mind that this requires that it be slightly better than 50-50 that your opponent a) didn't make his hand on the river, and b) has a hand with which he will call you. This obviously has to do with how your opponents play, but you should probably have enough of a handle on what the guy will call with after an hour or so at the table with him (assuming you are paying attention).


The other idea is based on changes in your opponent's strategy when you bet as opposed to when you check. If you are in first position, and your opponent tends to bet when you show weakness, even if he is weak, you should check and call. If your opponent is more likely to suspect a bluff than to attempt one himself, then you should bet. The way Sklansky puts it is "if he will call with more hands than he will bet, you should bet. If he will bet with more hands than he will call, you should check and call." The point is to make which ever move gives you the best chance of winning the pot. If I didn't explain this well enough, TOP has a good deal of elaboration in the "heads-up on the end" section.


In first position, I will check only if a really scary card came up when I have top pair with top or second kicker. I will be more inclined to check and call with call with second pair and a good kicker, or top pair with a weak kicker, unless I have a good reason to believe I have the best hand.


In last position, you should be somewhat concerned with a check-raise, but not to the extent that it prevents you from ever betting. In your example, the 9 could have made someone two pair or a str8, but it's not too likely, not betting here will definitely cost you money unless your opponents will routinely lay down a pair of 8s or a worse pair of Qs in this spot. I think the board would have to be a lot scarier for me not to bet top pair top kicker, like maybe if a 6 had come up instead of the 9, and put a 3-flush on the board.


I'm not sure about the opponents you are facing, but my guess is that they are pretty loose, making bluffing on the end a long-shot. If that is the case, then you should be inclined to value-bet with decent hands, because they will call with worse ones. Also, if they are fairly passive, you can fold some of your worst hands when you bet and are raised on the end.

Excellent insight. Thanks.