Right choice? my death at today's SnG

[t_perkin]

3 left, from the 2-table SNG.

I am on the button with 4815
Kman on the SB with 6546
McMelchior on the BB with 15640

blinds are 400/800 with 50 ante.

I have been pretty tight (I saw 15% of flops over whole tourn, had seen 2 showdowns, won em both and won 15 other hands from 126)

I get KhQd

I raise to 2400 (too much? probably?)

Kman reraises to 4000.

I figure I can't fold here, blinds are too big and I would be significantly smallest stack (2400 against 9000 and 15640). Looking back tho maybe a fold is the right move

So call or raise allin? I decide there is no need to go all in. There is no clear benefit. I figure he either has A and someting or a pocket pair. If the flop comes with an A and no K or Q and he bets then I fold. If the flop shows anything else then I call/move in.

flop comes A67, he bets, so I fold.

I figure the chances of a recovery are greater than my chances of winning the pot.

My 715 chips disappear in the next hand (2h,3c - typical).


any thoughts?

Tim

[DougBrennan]

My first thought is that while your raise to 2400 is "correct" as far as raising 3xBB goes, it is too large a portion of your stack (about 50%) not to have gone all-in.

And there are two advantages that I see in going all-in here: 1) you're more likely to induce a fold with a larger raise, plus it's your last chance to make a significant bet (even if you went all-in after betting 2400 and having it called you'd be betting only about 40% of the 5600 pot) and 2) your opponent, knowing he cannot get you out of the hand because you are all-in, can no longer bluff at you.

So I'd play that KQ myself, but I think I'd be all-in, and if I run into an A, well, the heck with it.

[William]

Whether you play the hand or not is your choice and there are arguments both ways. But, if you choose to play it, I beleive the only bet here is all-in. Db explained why...

Take care.

[Scooterdoo]

Are you telling me that the doc didn't make it to the top three. What happened?

As for your hand, I think you played it terribly -- but not nearly as bad as the hand that I died with <g>. If you're going to bet so many chips with that hand you might as well put them all-in and let the BB decide. Who knows what he would have done or if you would have gotten favorable turn/river cards but you'll never know. Either fold, limp (if these players ever let you look at the flop when you limp) or go all-in. I like the all-in in this position.

FYI, I found the play to be very tight while I was playing and was much easier than normal to steal blinds and pots with small raises. The down side was that on the three good hands i did get through the tournament (2 sets and pocket JJ) I couldn't get much out of them.

[Scooterdoo]

I agree with the first two reasons, plus the last reason to go all-in is that you are guaranteed to see all five cards. In this case, for example, he only saw three cards and the last two might have helped him.

[ClimbRock512]

I agree here. At that stage in the game, he could have had JJ TT or depending on how tight he was playing, even a lower pair. He was obviously going to bet on the flop after that type of raise, either because he had a good hand, or because he was bluffing and trying to represent one. Had you gone all in, you would at least have seen all 5 cards which Scooterdoo already pointed out. Which gave you 6 outs and two more cards, if he had a pair less than Q.

[McMelchior]

If K-man has an Ace he's (at least) a 30:1 favorite on the flop, leaving you with only 3% chance of winning, and you're absolutely correct folding and going for a try with your last 765 chips on the next hand.

If he raised you with a low pair (and didn't make a set) he's only about a 3:1 favorite, leaving you with 25% chance of winning, and you MUST call.

Based on his pre-flop re-raise (which I think could have been made to shut me out of the pot) I would put him on either a strong Ace (AK, AQ, AJ) or a low to medium pair (assuming he would flat call with a high pair, to get me in, to trap or to be able to get away if an Ace flops and one of us bets out).

Based on his bet on the flop I'm fairly convinced he didn't make a set. So he's either holding 22, 33, 44, 55, 88, 99, or TT, or the aforementioned strong Ace. That's 7 * 6 = 42 possible combinations for pairs, and 40 possible combinations of Ace and either K, Q or J (because you're holding one of each K and Q). Roughly said: half of the times you have 3% chance, the other half you have 25%, that makes you approximately 14% or 6:1 dog. With 8,550 chips in the pot and you need to call for 765 the pot is offering you better than 11:1 ... so you must call!

I completely agree with (already said, that) your raise was the worst possible in the situation; you are pot-committing yourself without the benefit of a a scary big preflop all-in raise for more than 2/3 of K-man's chips.

As a rule of thumb I'll move all in if a pot-size raise (in this case to 2,950) will be more than 33 - 40% of my stack, and bigger stacks are yet to act.

In your shoes I'd probably limp on the button to try to get a cheap look at the flop; I haven't checked the hand transcript, but I believe at that stage a number of hands went unraised preflop. If I get raised I fold - I haven't got enough chips to shut anyone out at that point, and I'll still be left with chips for 3 rounds of blinds.

Thanks for arranging the game, it was a riot /images/graemlins/smile.gif !

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)