Heads-up with SECOND nuts against PF capper

[Homer]

Party 2/4. Solid MP open-raises, I three-bet with AQs, folded back around to MP who caps.

Flop - AQJr

MP bets, I call.

Turn - Q

MP bets, I raise and then kick myself.

Why did I kick myself and was I right to do so?

-- Homer

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

because you don't have the nuts.

[PocketRocketsBF]

You kicked yourself because you didn't have to worry about the pain since you didn't have the nuts!

[J.R.]

Because you didn't have the nuts. Although there are more ways for MP to AK than AA here, AK is less likely to cap out of position against your preflop 3-bet. An overplayed KK (unlikely given postflop play) will fold, AK may fold (because you wouldn't 3-bet preflop and call the flop, raise the turn here with a worse hand- but might with the same hand) and AA will 3-bet.

By raising instead of calling you risk losing at least 2 extra bets to the nuts while only winning at most one more bet against AK and it is not twice as likely your opponent has AK than AA given the play of the hand. Way ahead or way behind. Just call.

That's my guess.

[Nate tha' Great]

Because you should have raised the flop instead?

[rharless]

The vast majority of the time, either you have <font color="blue">one</font> out, or Opponent has <font color="blue"> .5-2 </font> outs, and usually it's the latter scenario. I guess you kicked yourself because you felt you needed to slowly let out the rope versus spool it all out at once. It's much more likely that he has AK/KK than AA so hopefully your money card, a T, falls on the river and you can go multiple bets then.

That said, I think AK will 3-bet you often enough that the raise shouldn't be too swift of a kick.

<font color="blue">edited to reduce confusion; thanks to JR's post below</font>

[J.R.]

Its late in the workday but I see this as: if hero is behind (only to AA) he only has one out (Q), if MP has AK MP has one out (A) to chop, if MP had JJ he has one out to quads and if MP has the unlikey KK MP has 2 outs. What is the 3 outer for MP or 2 outer for hero?

Will AK 3-bet the turn on this board against a preflop 3-bettor here?

[chesspain]

Forget the flop and turn play--I'm more curious about why Hero three-bet "a solid open raiser" with AQs?

[rharless]

Its late in the workday but I see this as: if hero is behind (only to AA) he only has one out (Q), if MP has AK MP has one out (A) to chop, if MP had JJ he has one out to quads and if MP has the unlikey KK MP has 2 outs. What is the 3 outer for MP or 2 outer for hero?

I was careless (multi-tasking at work /images/graemlins/blush.gif)); you are right. For some reason I was thinking the board was AAQJ. Which, I might point out, my outs were still calculated wrong for Hero, as Hero would have the nuts at that point /images/graemlins/wink.gif. Thus my thinking was 3 outs for AK or one out for JJ.

Will AK 3-bet the turn on this board against a preflop 3-bettor here?

On Party 2-4? I think so, personally.

<font color="blue"> Never mind. I'm really off today. Again, I'm thinking the board is AAQJ so yeah, AK would 3-bet. On an AQQJ board, AK would not likely 3-bet. Good kick, Homer. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif </font>

[Homer]

Forget the flop and turn play--I'm more curious about why Hero three-bet "a solid open raiser" with AQs?

Because he open-raised from MP (three off the button to be exact).

-- Homer

[BottlesOf]

You could have waited until the river to raise, and had at least the same number of bets, maybe more.

[GuyOnTilt]

Yeah, I'm with you. I think a raise on the flop is best, but it may not be depending on MP's capping standards. Any read that way?

GoT