Hand Reading Exercise

[Homer]

Party 2/4. UTG (competent, fairly straightforward) limps, I limp from UTG+1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop - Js 9h 3d

BB bets, UTG raises, I three-bet, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn - 9d

UTG bets, I raise, BB coldcalls, UTG calls.

River - 2d

UTG bets, I raise, BB folds, UTG three-bets, I cap and UTG calls.

-- Homer

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

I'll bite.

99, 33, J9s, or A9s.

[PocketRocketsBF]

QdTd, Td8d

[J.R.]

33 for you or maybe 99, possibly J9s
open ended straight draw for BB
A9 or A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for UTG or maybe JJ or less likely J9s

[Homer]

99, 33, J9s, or A9s.

For me or UTG? Why these hands and not others? Which is most likely?

[Trix]

99 ? , cuz i think u would have raised preflop with JJ and there arent other hands i could see you press "Raise any" with /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Homer]

How's about some analysis? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[PocketRocketsBF]

I don't think UTG pushes it on the flop with 4 of a kind and would push harder on the turn

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Analysis, the man says. OK then-

99, 33, J9s, or A9s are what I believe Homer has. He doesn't have JJ or an overpair, he would have raised PF in this spot. He also certainly isn't holding J3 or 93 or other such trash. I don't think Homer would be 3-betting a draw on the flop, which rules out hands like QTs or T8s (which are verrrry marginal EP limps to begin with). The cap from Homer on the river screams full house - therefore, I think the most likely holdings of the four I mentioned at the beginning are 99, 33 or J9s.

I figure UTG for KdJd, maybe AdJd if he's passive.

[kingstalker]

Here's my wild guess:
BB A3
UTG AJ of diamonds
you 9-9 or 3-3 mostl ikely 3-3

[J.R.]

BB is on a draw. UTG limped, then called the 3-bet. UTG has a made hand that wants to see what comes off on the turn, most likely AJ or a slowplayed J9. You most likely have a set (not JJ) with an outside shot at 2 pair (J9), you are not pushing a draw here (unlikely to limp T8 or QT UTG+1 and you would not 3-bet for a free card against a straightforward flop raiser).

The turn lead by UTG could A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or a 9, but if he has a 9 he is unlikely to be full as J9 would probably cap flop. You are full to raise again here, as you wouldn't 3-bet the flop with just a 9 against a straightforward player's raise (maybe A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif but that can't be on the turn).

UTG 3-betting the river is consistent with nut flush, full house or an overplayed 9. Your cap is at least a full-house (33, J9) or quads.

[brian0729]

Im still torn. My choices for you would be J9s, 99 or QTd. As far as the flop. I dont think you three bet w/o a set, two pair or huge draw (Im a friggin anaylsis genius). I really dont like QTd or the J9s (I wouldnt limp w/ that here, I dont think you did). You would have raised any over pair or JJ preflop. I dont think you would have limped w/ 33. That leaves 99 by that seems to easy.

Still thinking about the villian's hand.

[bunky9590]

Here's my guess without reading any other posts.

UTG= A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
BB= Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif
Homer= 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I hope I'm close.

[Homer]

I really dont like QTd or the J9s (I wouldnt limp w/ that here, I dont think you did)

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

[gonores]

You

33 - 60%
J9s - 35%
99 - 5%

These are the only hands with which a reasonable player would hammer at every postflop opportunity but still limp with preflop

UTG

KdJd - 50%
QdJd - 30%
AdJd - 10%
JdTd - 10%

Has to be a flush if he held up on the turn, has to have the Jd to raise the flop and bet the turn. Prolly wouldn't 3-bet river with JdTd, Prolly would've raised preflop with AdJd. He bet the turn to prevent your free card.

[brian0729]

I agree w/ AJd for UTG. JR nailed it, this play seems consistent for the nut flush.

BB missed a st8 draw.

[rharless]

BB: QT, or KQ with a diamond
UTG: XJd
Homer: 33 or J9s (both possible EP limps at a loose-passive-preflop table of 2-4)

[brian0729]

I knew that was coming. /images/graemlins/grin.gif I am in a real pump or dump PF phase right now. I am trying to work in a few more hands though. I just am not thrilled about the suited one gappers in EP.

[Homer]

Me - J /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Opponent - A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BTW, I've been seeing more and more of this "bet the flop, call a raise and lead the turn when you pick up a draw" garbage and have been trying to raise the turn more in a conscious effort to punish such plays.

-- Homer

[rharless]

I've been seeing more and more of this "bet the flop, call a raise and lead the turn when you pick up a draw" garbage

I make this play sometimes... /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Allan]

Hi Homer,

What do the table conditions have to be like for you in order to make calls with this and other such hands? No preflop raises ever? One or 2 every orbit? etc....I notice that HEPFAP reccomends playing this in a typical game but I've never felt comfortable with it in all but the best games.


Allan

[Homer]

Certainly it's an alright play to make from time to time, but some people do it every time. In this case, given the fact that I three-bet the flop, he has no reason to believe I won't raise the turn. And even if there's some chance I won't raise, he knows there's a zero percent chance of me folding.

-- Homer

[Homer]

What do the table conditions have to be like for you in order to make calls with this and other such hands?

The table must be fairly passive. Definitely moreso than the average Party 2/4 game.

I notice that HEPFAP reccomends playing this in a typical game but I've never felt comfortable with it in all but the best games.

I think what HPFAP refers to as a typical game is more passive than an average online game.

-- Homer

[Joe Tall]

With you river cap, I'd put you on 99, not 33, but reading it I hand you on 33 until the river.

I'll have to assume that UTG has AdJd this seems like the only hand a competent straight forward type would play. I am also reading inot the "competent str-forward" as he does not limp with rags, yet is a little weak to raise preflop.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

Ah, close, J9s, went through my head but I didn't see the word, "passive" in the table description.

Peace,
Joe Tall