Shorthanded Turn decision - bet or not

5-handed 1-2 game online


The cutoff is not a particularly strong player. He goes too far with his hands. He's capable of overbetting his hand.


I am on the button; dealt Qc Qs. The cutoff open-limps. I raise. We are headsup for the flop:


FLOP: [Jc Jh 5c]


Cutoff checks, I bet, he calls


TURN: [Jc Jh 5c] [Kc]


Cutoff checks. Bet or check?

RESULTS:


I checked. It seemed like a lot of reasons came together for this:


1. I am probably behind (unless my opponent is drawing to the backdoor flush on the flop). At the same time, if I am ahead, I am likely to be far ahead.


2. I might induce a bluff on the river.


3. I have a draw to a strong hand, so I don't want to be raised. (Is this a proper application of S&M's "check hands with outs"?)


I am uncertain because of the 3 flush on board. I could extract a big bet right now from lower clubs. However, I risk getting raised - and if I'm raised I'm likely to be behind and drawing for that 4th club.


RIVER: [Jc Jh 5c] [Kc] [8d]


cutoff bets, I call. Cutoff shows Ac 7s (the nut flush draw); I win.

Before I read this post I suggested bet the turn.


[1] No, you are probably way ahead at this point, especially against an assertive type who has not asserted himself at all.


[2] Inducing a river bluff is a great reason to check.


[3] This only applies when you fear you are behind and have almost enough outs. But in this situation you have likely 11 outs so this principle doesn't apply since you can easily call the raise (getting 6:1 for your 3+:1 draw) even if you SEE his Jack or King; let alone the chance you still have the best hand.


- Louie

Muffin:


It amazes me to see how often players will dog it on the turn with a dangerous board and an opponent who has shown no strength whats so ever. You must bet here. Read the new addition of Cardplayer and an article by Bob Ciaffone to see what an expert says regarding this.


Good Luck,

Dugie

I would bet only if the player is a passive one who has no tendency of check raising. I prefer checking behine here. The reason is either you are way behine or way ahead. If he check raises on the turn, then you are in trouble. Furthermore, by checking, you could induce a bluff on the river. Ok, I'm going to see what Louie has to say.. /images/wink.gif

Tricky spot. What hands would he open-limp with in that spot? A low/medium pocket pair? A-little? Theese are the hands that might call a turn bet that you do currently beat. Maybe he will call you on the turn with Tc or 9c. On the other hand you might be beat by a number of hands, any J, any K, any 2 clubs. You have outs against all of these hands except the nut-monsters.


I say check the turn and call the river if he bets and bet if he checks. (If he checkraises you on the river you're in a tough spot though).


Off to check the results.


Sincerly, Andreas

[1] This is very good point and you are probably correct that you would have heard from an agressive player on the flop. I don't know if I would classify him as agressive though since he openlimped in CO with A7o, an openraise seems more appropriate to me. If he were the tricky type would you play it in an other way?


[2] A very good reason that worked like a charm.


[3] Wouldn't you rather like to get infinite odds on your draw then having to play it at the effective potodds of 2:1 (if he checkraises)?


The only hands that has plenty of outs against ju is Ac, and QT any other hand has at most 4 outs.


An additional value of this play is that it will get the opponent sucpicios of your hand and you're likely to get calls from weak hands on the river.


If you do bet the turn, do you bet the river if he checks?


Sincerly, Andreas