Can you overplay a near-cinch winner?

I was playing 4/8 hold'em at Mandalay Bay today and had a hand which I was sure would win in a showdown. However, I think I overplayed the hand on the turn and cost myself two big bets.


The game was a typical 4/8 Vegas game but with a little less pre-flop raising than usual. If anybody raised pre-flop, it was very likely they held a big pair.


The player to my left had just won his second consecutive pot and the game became a 6/12 half-kill hand.


I was on the button. Four players limped in for $3 and I decided to just call with KJ of spades. The small blind checked (he posted $3) and the big blind called.


The flop was Jc 8c Jd


I wasn't expecting a big pot with this flop so I quickly decided to call any flop bets and wait until the turn to raise.


To my surprise, the small blind immediately bet. Two players folded to a middle position player who raised. It was folded to me and I called. Then, the small blind re-raised! Both the middle position player and I called. I hadn't expected nearly this much action. The pot was already $81, 13 1/2 small bets. I condluded that one of the other two players had to have the case Jack. The other may have pocket 8s and flopped a full house. However, it was possible that the MPP had either a four flush or an open-ended straight draw.


The turn was Jc 8c Jd Kc


This gives me a full house and completes a flush draw. Without hesitation, the small blind bets and the MPP calls. I raise. The small blind now looked very uncomfortable. He was very confident in his flop bet and reraise but was disturbed by my sudden raise when all I had done previously was call. The small blind thought for a moment and called and to my surprise, the MPP folded. The pot was now $141, almost 12 big bets


The river was Jc 8c Jd Kc 6d


The small blind checked, I bet, he called, and we showed our hands. He had the pocket 8s and lost to my larger full house. A player sitting next to the MPP confirmed that the MPP had J4 suited (in red) and made a tough fold on the turn due to my raise since he was sure he had to beaten by at least one if not both of us.


I'm satisifed with the way I played this hand but I'm sure that if I had just called on the turn that the small blind would have again bet on the river and I could have raised then when the MPP probably would have called with his trip Jacks since he wouldn't have to call any more bets afterwards. If so, I would have gotten two more big bets out of the MPP.


Finally, my question: If you've got a near-cinch hand and are in late position, should you wait until the last possible moment to raise if there is an early position player betting for you. Or should you raise earlier (on the turn) in hopes of getting into a raising war while you've got the best of it?

I think you did the right thing here. Sometimes, if you

wait to the river, people catch on their hands are no good.

You had a lot of flop action here, which generated a reasonable

sized pot. I think a raise on the turn is very justified, especialy being in late position.

I think you should raise the flop bet. You have six players and the flop contains a two-flush. There are also two cards in the playing zone (a jack and an eight) making some gutshot draws possible. On the flop, your hand figures to be best but it can be easily overtaken.


On the turn, I am surprised the small blind played so timidly. He should put you on a flush and reraise with his full house.

[1] The stronger your hand the more you should bet. The main exception to this is at Holdem when you have all the good cards and nobody else can have anything, such as if you have KK and the board is K832r. Forget this "wive's tale" ..err.. "spouse's tale" stuff about routinely slow-playing monsters. Especially in THIS spot with a board of KJJ8 3-flush and two raisers in; there is just a FAR too much chance they have good hands.


[2] You are also in perfect position to raise vis-a-vis the other players: the bettor is on your right leaving NO prospective callers after you, and there is already callers in the pot. This "position" has nothing to do with your relationship to the button; its the same if you had checked from the blind and UTG bets.


[3] Everybody in the pot looks like they have a good hand.


[4] Players are MORE likely to call a bet on the turn than on the river, since on the turn they can still be TRYING to make something, but on the river there are no more "draws" to make calls.


[5] Rightfully so its rare for a player (MP) to call one bet in a big pot but not one more. Make a mental note about MP since he can be moved off a big hand in a big pot easily, such as when you raise the maniac with 2nd pair and a draw.


Didn't work out this time. Don't worry about it.


- Louie


Your position vis-a-vis the button, actually, should encourage you to slow play, since you are sure to get at least one bet in on the river, something you are not guaranteed to do from the blind.

I think that you have to jam the flop because your trip Jacks are good, but very vulnerable with that flop (you only had four outs against the 88, and your case Jack out was in the other player's hand.) When the turn K fills you up, I think you could just call (represent only trip Jacks) and then raise on the river. Good hand!


Here's a real cinch-winner I had on Thursday.


$4-$8, lots of loose players, and a couple loose-aggressives. I look down and see black tens in the 2UTG position. UTG calls, I call, five or six players call, the SB calls, and the BB raises. Everyone calls.


Flop comes down Ah Th Td. Flopped quads. Couldn't get much better than that...the table is notorious for playing Ax, and anyone with a heart draw just got a couple cards better. But barring a miracle, I've got'em all dead in the water. Only question for me is how to max the hand. My plan in this situation is to play my hand like aggressive trips for the most part, unless I think excessive action will scare everyone out. BB bet out, I called (don't want to make everyone else call two cold,) player next to me called, someone in the middle raised, fold call fold, SB called, BB called, I reraised (c'mon, just call one more =) and everyone called.


QUESTION: Good play or not? I reraised here to represent trip tens and get more money in the pot. Most players will expect an AA, AT, or TT to smooth call here.


Turn was Qc. Checked to me, I bet, next player folded, original flop raiser raised, knocked everyone out to the BB (couldn't do much about that,) BB called, I reraised, and they both called.


QUESTION: Was my turn bet correct? I could have checked, hoping the MP would bet and get callers...then I could checkraise and hope he just called. That would let the players behind him only call one more big bet. I reraised on the turn because I realized they were both tied to the hand at this point and would call anything. I didn't want to miss a bet here, because I thought they would only check/call on the river to get to the showdown.


River was 6h, making the flush draw. Checked to me, I bet, both players called, and I took it down with the nuts.


Depending on your opposition, I think that the best way to play a monster is to play it fast...this will represent a *lesser* hand because most players will expect you to "run silent, run deep" and slowplay. Best benefit is you get more money in the pot because players will think their draws are good. There are circumstances, such as playing against several timid players, whether the flop offers any draws, etc. I think that slowplaying usually is not a good strategy in low limit.