BB Decision in Family Pot

You are in a very loose, passive 3-6 HE game. Some, but not a lot, of pre-flop raising, which so far has generally been equated with quality hands.


Nine players seated at the moment, everyone limps in, including the SB. You look down and see Ah-Th. Who votes for raising out of the BB with this holding, in this situation? Who votes for just calling?


My decision, my thoughts, and the results, later in the show.

My answer depends on what the post flop play is like. Will I get paid off if I make a flush?


If the play postflop is weak tight, raise.


If the play postflop is loose passive, check.

I would not raise. Your ace with a ten kicker is probably good if you flop an ace because anyone with ace-king or ace-queen might have raised preflop. Nevertheless, I see raising as a high variance play not a big ev move one way or the other. Your raise will not eliminate any players nor will it give you any free cards once the boardcards start coming since you are out of position with lots of opponents.

Good points. I think the key here is position. What would you recommend on the button? I think a raise here is more valid since you might get a freecard on the flop for longshot draws such as backdoors/gutshots/overcards.


What about cutoff? Late-middle?


Sincerly, Andreas

If you are certain to get nine-way action, I would certainly raise. It is somewhat likely that if anyone had a better ace, they may have raised, depending exactly what they held and what their position was, so I would not necessarily worry about being dominated. Having a hand like that in a nine way pot screams out "this pot needs to be raised". You have a hand that is getting implied odds from the field, and has lots of ways to make a big hand, like a flush or straight. Also, you will sometimes win when you flop an ace. I would raise.


Dave in Cali

On the button, or late after everyone limped, it would clearly be a raise.


Jim does have a good point, raising is probably not much different EV wise than checking, but your variance is going to be higher if you raise.

S&M discuss this in the Loose games section of HFAP. Since your raise will not induce anyone to fold, it has the same EV as the check. It does however have the effect of making bad players later calls correct. For instance, suppose you flop a flush, the increased pot size makes the "two pair drawing for a boat" call correct (or closer to it).


kevin

I think, as Jim Brier points out, it doesnt matter too much what you do EV wise. Raising would be the higher varience play.

But since it's so close I think the points you're making should be the consideration whether to check or raise.


Very good points!


Regards

I would vote for just calling in the BB with this hand against the family. As stated, raising will not increase your EV, but it will increase your variance as well as the pot odds for whoever's chasing (redraws or not.) If you do flop your four-flush or even a gutshot Broadway, you should be getting enough odds to see the turn without the preflop raise.


When I get a semi-strong hand like this in the BB, I usually call so the other players won't put me on a strong hand (the blinds always get dealt trash, right?) Being out of position, I would like to see the flop "for free" and then decide what to do. With everyone in, the flop will hit somebody. If you like the flop (top pair/two pair) this puts you in a perfect position to checkraise. If you really like the flop (four-flush or trips) you can simply bet out or check and see where the action goes...then decide what to do. If you love the flop (flopped Broadway/no flush draws or flush,) then you can play in whatever way you think will get the most money in the pot (either bet out and hope you get raised from a late position player, or check and hope someone early bets and gets a lot of callers...then you can raise and get them to throw more money in...either on the flop or on the turn.)


If I was on the button, raising would be in order. If I was in the cutoff, raising would definitely be in order...to buy the button if nothing else. In the blind, with everyone coming, I usually give the "oh, I can actually play THIS hand?" check and see what flops.

the hand is easier to play(get away from) for me when i just call

In the aftermath of yesterday's events, I had overlooked getting back to this part of the forum at putting up the results of this hand. Sorry for the delay.


I see there are quite a few responses up, and I appreciate that. I have not yet read any, so they will not color my comments here. I am certainly looking forward to seeing what Jim, Dave, and others have to say.


I raised out of the BB. I know this is the higher variance play, but these were my thoughts at the time.


1) I may have the best hand. Everyone limped in, and while this crew will for the most part play Ace-Anything, they will usually jam it up with Group 1 and even Group 2 hands pre-flop.


2) My hand will make the nut flush and nut str8, and should be fairly easy to get away from with a garbage flop. If I miss the flop, it will certainly hit someone else hard, and yes, I do run the risk of getting dominated by someone limping in with a bigger Ace, but it was a chance I was willing to take.


3) I felt that ATs would win the pot more often than one time in 9, all things being equal. As Roy Cooke says, volume x edge = expectation. I felt I was getting an overlay, and decided to pump up the volume a little.


The flop came down Kh-8h-3s. I bet out, got 3 callers.


Turn card was the 3h. I bet out again, call, call, and guy in the cutoff seat raised. I knew that he could possibly have something like pocket 8's, but knowing his play, he would have raised pre-flop with KK, and if he had quad's, well, them's the breaks. I was more confident that he had hearts, because he will play ANY two suited cards. I re-raised, because I wanted to get rid of the two other limpers. I did not want them hanging around in case a King, 8, or a 3 hit on the river, or to let them maybe spike their pocket pair for cheap. I have made this bed, so I had better try to protect it.


Both other limpers fold, (Yay!) and the raiser just called. River was a blank, I bet again, he called and showed me Qh-2h.


Now, yes, this was a success story. But the main reason I posted this was not to gloat, but to get some feedback on the quality of my decision to raise pre-flop. I remember this being discussed a few months ago with AQs, and it was almost unanimous that a raise was in order out of the BB with a big field. I just wondered what everyone's thoughts would be with the somewhat weaker holding of ATs.


Now I will get on with reading everyone's comments. Thanks in advance for the feedback.

Easy raise preflop.


The one drawback is that you may have a little tougher time winning the pot if say the flop comes A85 rainbow (as your preflop raise has made the pot so big that no one with anything is going to fold....but then again, with a family pot, I doubt that anyone with anything is going to fold even if you had not raised preflop but without the preflop raise, you stand a better chance of getting in a checkraise of a late position bet on the flop in order to reduce the field).


Despite this "drawback", I think you have an easy raise here preflop and if the flop comes A85, I might still check and try for a checkraise of a late position dude.

I don't know if I'm correct here, but I've often wondered that while S&M suggests to keep the pot small in some situations with holdings like AKo, QQ and such, whether the opposite should be applied with holdings like ATs in large, un-raised fields, where the hand *could* be dominated, but as Dunc says, will probably win more than it's fair share in the long run. A raise in this situation makes the pot huge. Sometimes you will get instant value from this raise by flopping a nut flush draw, a nut flush, the nut straight, trip tens, trip aces (if good) or two top pair (although now you'd wish you'd kept the pot small to prevent broadway gutshots from drawing against you.


BUT often that raise will also commit you to correctly chase long-shot draws, such as backdoor flush and gutshot straights (and that actually means often correctly chasing a gutshot all the way down to the river, not just looking at the turn before folding to a big bet). Is this a bad thing? If you build a monster pot by raising ATs in BB against eight limpers, which is probably the correct EV+ you are also allowing yourself the chance to win several more pots with this hand, because this is a hand which will often make the best hand on the river, unlike Queens which will usually, if anything, be drawn out on the river (or before of course).


lars

I still don't like the raise for the following other reasons:


You are out of position against a big field (that's right, I'm a recent convert to the Tommy Angelo Church of Position). For me, this is especially worrying if I want to raise. I am looking to make one of two hands here: pair/twopair or flush. While I don't discount the possibility of a straight, its not high on my list of expectations, since I will have to draw to a gutshot unless I flop it. Let's look at the two hands I make:

a) Top pair - board is ace high or ten high. Now I play the hand out of position and I am never happy, especially if the board comes ace high. With this many people in, there have to be some acellaneous types out there, and now its just a big gambool as to whether they spike their kicker or not (or even worse, have me outkicked!). I just don't have any interest in playing one pair hands out of position anymore!

b) Flush - I spike my flush. I want to be able to checkraise the turn if I have the flush. If I am leading the betting (as I usually do when I raise preflop), its going to be difficult to do unless someone else has made a flush as well or there is a tricky player in the game who takes a shot at me.


There's also the greater longterm concern for me of annoying the loose passive players by starting to raise preflop with marginal raising hands. They start to see this kind of thing and they get mad at you and start raising preflop with more things and you can play fewer hands and there are fewer multiway one bet preflop pots and so on and so forth. Why tick off the weak players and "wake them up"?


I don't like this raise.


David

Dunc,


Doesn't make much difference, as long as you will not ever, ever try to bluff.


With ATs, the straight draw is weak and the pair cards are vulnerable, so you're really raising on the strength of a nut flush "draw" alone. Not quite enough for me, but it really doesn't matter as long as you play well postflop.

I usually call due to my poor position.

Since reading the post, I have raised preflop with A-Ts from every position with any number of limpers. I have lost every single hand.