semi-bluff play...right river play? (kinda long)

This hand has been bugging me ever since I played it.


Typical loose $4-$8 table, except one usual $10-$20/$20-$40 player was also sitting (I think he was just messing around until the $20-$40 opened up.) I was two off the button with T 8. The higher-limit player was in the BB, three called, I called, the button called, the SB called. We saw the flop six-handed...mostly decent players.


Flop came J 9 4 rainbow. I flop an open-ender. It's checked to me, I bet on the straight draw. Button drops off, everyone else calls. So far, nothing too tough to decide on. Five players.


Turn came J 9 4 [8], completing the rainbow. I didn't feel too good about making this pair, since QT makes a straight and anyone with a ten is going to stay on. Checked to me again (?!) I bet out (they don't have to have QT, right?) and they all called. That made me nervous, but I can still catch my straight or another eight for a good hand. Five players.


River was a blank J 9 4 8 [2]. It's checked to me again. Now here's my dilemma. I've got a pair of eights, but I've been representing either top pair or a made straight. I'm still trying to figure out why they have all been checking to me. Do I check or bet? Here's my thinking.


Checking: if I check it down, I may survive. Up against four other players, one of them should have a pair of nines or Jacks/weak kicker that they're afraid to bet (they would have bet the straight on the turn or river.) I don't think I can win in a showdown, but it's better than wasting an extra big bet in the hopes of driving everyone out. They could also have overcards or a single ten that didn't catch. If I had Jacks, this would be an easy checkdown.


Betting: If I bet out, anyone who calls me will have me beat. If they can call a river bet against a possible straight, they've got top pair at least. I have bet in this same position (busted draw) against two players before, and it has worked. But it's my experience that bluffing into four players, hoping that all of them will fold, usually isn't a good idea. Someone will call. Some of the players involved in the hand could lay down nines, but probably not Jacks. If that's the case, I waste my river bet...and they're expecting me to bet, so they could be prepared to call with nines or Jacks/weak kicker.


Anyways, I checked it down. Higher limit player showed down KQ for overcards/gutshot nut straight draw. I turned over the pair of eights and fully expected to lose the pot. The table couldn't believe it. They also couldn't beat it. How I survived, I don't know. But I got everything I wanted out of that hand...the pot and the advertising. I got lucky that the eights held up (still don't know what the other players had.) In retrospect, I'm wondering if I should have bet the river (of course, with the knowledge I had the best hand =)


Thoughts, comments, suggestions? All greatly appreciated.

First, I wouldn't have called pre-flop. Betting the flop is fine, but I think with 4 opponents, you should take the free card on the turn. It is highly unlikely your hand is best, so you need to improve to win. 4 opponents is too many for you to try to (semi) bluff off the pot. You absolutely cannot bet the river.

I have to agree with Sam, can't call pre-flop with that hand, but that's not what you're asking about. Once you seen the flop I think semi bluff is good, but take the free card, then check it down, even if a Q comes you could be in trouble against K-T, so really what you want is a 7 only. Glad it turned out alright for you tho, it could have been bad with that many still in. Can't bluff against that many. Good luck.

I think your checking the river was a good play, in fact the only play that would have been correct. You can't expect to have the winner with third pair at this point, and you can't expect that everyone will fold either. You also can't expect that you will get a better hand to fold, except perhaps a pair of nines, and you can't expect that anyone who calls will have a worse hand. It's a clear check, and hope for a miracle, which you got. The advertising value was a bonus and a freebie.


I liked the way you played the hand overall. There certainly wasn't any reason NOT to bet the flop, as you had some small chance of taking the pot, but more likely, you would get some calls, and gain value on your good draw. This could also wind up setting you up for a pot winning bet later. On the turn, you had to think that you had two more outs with the other two eights, but no outs with the tens, except for a full house draw. This means that you now have ten outs instead of eight. Bet away. Hope to take the pot right there.


Dave in Cali

Dave, I'm not sure why you wouldn't rather just take the free card on the turn. Sure you have 10 outs, but you almost certainly have to improve to win the pot, and I think it's unlikely all 4 opponents will fold. You probably get 1 or 2 calls, which isn't worth it. And if you get check-raised it's a disaster. I really think the play is to take the free card and if you don't improve just check/fold the river. One of the benefits of betting the flop on the draw is that you might get "checked-to-the-bettor" on the turn. Take advantage of it. Now against 2 or 3 opponents it's a whole different story...

Flop bet is good. I'm suprised BB did not bet two over cards with nut straight draw.


I would check the turn, because it is a drawing hand at this point.


I would check the river against multiple opponents.

I think that checking the turn is weak poker in this case. He has position, a strong draw and momentum in this case. The fact that he picked up a small pair also increases (very slightly) the chances he has the best hand at that point. He might be able to pick up the pot on the turn and certainly insures river calls if he hits. His hand is very well disguised here. I hate checking through when I am the only flop bettor with a draw. It announces your hand to the table and makes your river play more difficult. In this case, what if a blank hits after he checks the turn and the KQ player bets. Do you call with your third pair (it is the best hand!)?


Check out the article URL I posted yesterday. It explains this play very articulately.


KJS

KJS,


I'm not a big fan of weak tight poker either. I've read the article you've provided. However, our hero is up against 4 other players in this hand while the examples in the article is usually heads up or against only 2 other players. Plus, don't forget our hero is in a low limit game, so someone could easily been calling with the 2nd best pair all the way.

I agree with you about the number of players being a big factor in this case and ones like it. Still, he has quite a few outs if called and will probably get called if he does. Plus, he may be very tempted to call on the river if he checks the turn and someone bets the river. I much prefer what Ciaffone states: bet the turn and take the free showdown. Otherwise, why bet a draw on the flop in LLHE. You are almost never going to win a 6 way pot outright this way. What you do get is: advertising value, calls later in the session when you have a made hand, paid off because people don't put you on a draw and a good, agressive image. IMO, you lose these things when you bet a draw and then check when you get callers.


KJS

..."Otherwise, why bet a draw on the flop in LLHE..."


You bet a draw on the flop because low limit players will often check the turn to the bettor and you can take a free card.


Again I see no value in betting the turn. There are TOO many opponents.

I'm not sure there is an absolute correct answer as to you're betting the turn. I'm amazed that the 8 did'nt make someone a straight, and I would have expected a checkraise here. However, when everyone only called the turn, it would seem that 2 or 3 of them were going for straights on the river (they just about had the proper odds for a gut shot), so I wouldn't look upon the situation as facing 4 hands on the river. I think its worth a shot to try to get 9's to fold (10.5-1). A weak J would probably call. IMHO.

2+2 posters,


Thanks for all your comments...they are appreciated. Obviously, I can't bet the river against that many opponents. On that, we all agree. The real Q concerns the turn bet. All of you make good arguments for continuing the semi-bluff and for taking the free card.


The hand is extremely vulnerable on the turn, when the 8 showed up. My T8 will split the pot with any ten if my straight card shows, and I could be easily beaten by a KT if the Q shows. My only real shot at taking the whole pot would be to catch another 8 on the river (never mind that I won the showdown.) Betting on the turn is just what a player holding QT would want me to do, so he could get in a checkraise. Taking the free card to a hand that clearly needed help seems to be a good idea.


But betting also has its advantages. To be honest, I made the turn bet almost automatically...I don't like announcing my draw to the rest of the players when I have last position and can still improve. I have been known to take an occasional free card, especially if I'm up against the whole table. I hadn't seen any of the active players checkraise at the table, so I felt more comfortable in betting right out. I wonder if I would have made the same play at a $10-$20 table with better players?


Of course, given normal circumstances, I would have lost this hand. Just goes to show that my post-flop play needs improvement (or at least more thought.) According to some of you, my pre-flop starting hands also need improvement. T8o is scraping the bottom of the barrel, even two off the button....no problem admitting that. The game was loose-passive with little preflop raising. I had also seen the cutoff get ready to fold his cards, so I threw in a call to see the flop. So it goes.


Again, thanks for all your feedback.