Top Pair, Top Kicker. What to do?

[JPolin]

Here's a situation that I've actually come across several times, and I don't feel I've found a satisfactory solution. This hand is from a 10/20 game on Pokerroom.com:

The main opponent in this hand is a stuck player who is playing too loose, aggressive but not tiltingly so, and is not too much out of line.

This opponent limps UTG, MP and LP also limp. I limp as well on the button with Ad9d. The SB completes and the BB checks.

The flop comes down
9s 4c 2s

Checked to LP who bets, I raise, UTG calls two bets cold (Warning sign?) and everyone else folds.

Turn is the 4d, checked to me and I bet, UTG checkraises. What do I do?

I can't imagine any legitimate hand that I could beat checkraising me here, especially from a player limping UTG. But this guy is stuck and loose, and his limp is definitely a sign of weakness. Clearly, if I call the turn here I have to call the river, but what are my chances of being ahead, being behind, and drawing dead?

[afish]

I think you have to call this down unless a spade hits on the river. UTG's play is consistent with a flush draw. He could check raise the turn as a semi-bluff, hoping the 4 will scare you into a fold.

[JPolin]

Do you really think that he believes a 4 will scare me? While he is loose, I do not fear him holding a hand that has a 4 in it. Because this board is so innocuous he must know that I will probably call with a reasonable holding (like A9)

[Kenshin]

How is check-raising the turn consistent with a flush draw? His combined play preflop, flop and turn suggest a slowplayed overpair to me. Against a passive player, I would muck; however, with the abovestated read, I rail against the vagaries of cruel fortune and call him down.

[Manzanita]

JPolin,

I don't think that UTG has an overpair because an aggressive, slightly-tilting player would normally raise with it preflop. An exception to this could be if he had pocket Aces, but since you have an Ace this becomes less likely.

My guess is that he flopped the flush draw or he actually has trip 4s (i.e., he has A4s). How tricky my opponent is would be the deciding factor on how I proceed. If he has played a generally straight-forward game then I would fold. But if he has made some bluffs or other moves previously then I would call him down.

Good problem.

-- Manzanita

[JPolin]

Thanks for the replies.

I ultimately decided to call him down, though my most likely read of him was 1010 or JJ. But more likely 1010. It turned out he had 99 for the flopped set (nuts) and turned full house.

I think the results are less important than general guidelines on how to react to this seemingly common situation.

-Justin

[sweetzer]

The 99 makes total sense in the play of the hand after the flop, but I'm surprised he didn't raise preflop with this. With 99 I raise, although I would like some other opinions as this is borderline. My thoughts are to limit the numbers of callers with the best hand rather than limping and trying to flop a set.

[skp]

His play almost always indicates a full house or a flush draw. If he is not bold enough or brash enough - take your pick - to checkraise the turn with a flush draw, then you can fold so long as you know that you haven't been folding a lot of late and that others are taking notice.

He probably does not have trip fours i.e. he limped UTg and then coldcalled two bets on the flop.

He probably does not have an overpair i.e. he limped UTG and did not 3 bet the flop.

He probably does not have a hand like T9s or something as he would have bet the flop or perhaps folded or 3 bet after having checked and seen the action that transpired

Overall, I don't consider this to be a difficult spot. Against unknown players - perhaps online - I would just about never fold. It's tough to make full houses in hold 'em. I would make him show me his hand.