Analyze this please

I'm one to the right of the cutoff at a full 9-player 4/8 table. There's a single Big Blind. I have 33. There's 4 limpers to me. I limp. Cutoff raises, button calls. Everyone calls including me. 14 big bets in the pot. Flop comes Q54 rainbow. It's checked around. Turn is a 5. It's checked to the cutoff who bets. There's 4 callers before it gets to me. I end the betting unless I raise. There's 19 Big Bets in the pot. I have a 1/23 shot to make a very strong hand. I think that if a 3 comes there will be more than 4 more big bets going into the pot. I call. River isn't a 3 and I fold. Was my play sound?


Thanks,


-Michael

I don't think there were 19 big bets in the pot. If I interpret the hand correctly, there were 7 players in for 2 small bets before the flop, no betting on the flop, and 5 people in for 1 big bet ahead of you on the river. That only adds up to 12 big bets, so I don't think you can call. If it was 19 big bets in the pot, your call would've been ok, provided you thought you'd get 4 big bets on the river.

There isn't 14 BB in the pot before the flop. There isn't money there to draw for a three. Also, it's not inconceivable that a 3 will cost you a lot of money. Small pairs are good for one thing: hitting a set or better on the flop.

There is a lot more EV in BETTING the turn then there is in calling. So even if you had counted the pot correctly and believe it would be close, you may better off betting it yourself; although you seem to gain a lot of EV if its checked around again.


Both betting and calling gains a lot of equity in this case since it is reasonable that YOU have the "best" hand right now, by virtue of all the checking.


All-in-all, however, I'd check-and-fold.


- Louie

If I were in this hand I would ask myself a couple of questions:


Does the cutoff already have QQ? Perhaps he thought a flop of Q54 was good enough to slowplay?


Even if you are drawing live to your 3 you are not getting enough odds to call anyways (based on the above posts). At best a call is very marginal and if variance is important to you than not worth it.


However the other question I would ask is what is the chance I have the best hand (and that it will stand up)? This is based on your read of the players involved in the hand. In your case you are hoping that nobody has a pair (or will make a pair by the river). Only if those 4 callers are aggressive and would have bet a pair by now would I even think I have a remote chance of being good here.


I think the drawing dead factor is too big here and a fold is best.


Jim Roy


jimroy@powersurfr.com

Preflop, I think your play is fine. There are 14 small bets in the pot on the flop (7BB.) Since you didn't flop your set, you're 23:1 to hit it on the turn or the river. But since the flop got checked around, you really don't have an idea of where you're at. The turn action makes the pot 12BB when you're forced to stay or leave. You don't have enough pot odds to call, and if you hit your 3, you may not have the best hand (if you don't, you'll have to pay a lot to find out.) Throwing in a loose call in these types of situations will wind up costing you a lot of money.


In my last session, I had TT in the middle. I called along with a good player two to my left and four other players. The flop came down K T 4 rainbow...I figured to have the best hand at the moment, since almost any LL player at our tables will raise with KK preflop. Checked to me, I bet, the good player called, and two others called. The turn was a 7. I bet out again, and the good player raised (?!)...he knocked everyone else out.


I thought "how could the 7 help him?" He could have thrown in a loose call with 77 to catch a set. So I put him on two hands...77 or KK (possible slowplay...he would not raise with QJ here.) Then I eliminated KK because he didn't raise preflop, and he didn't raise on the flop (he should also be afraid of a QJ drawing hand.) I put him on 77 and reraised (he almost never raises on the river unless he's got the nuts, so I had to collect from him on the turn.) He called. The river was a blank, I bet, he called, and he turned over exactly 77. He wasn't getting nearly enough pot odds to call my flop bet (7SB in the pot.) And it wound up costing him 4BB to find out that his set was no good.


Point is, he shouldn't have called the flop bet in the first place. Sometimes pot odds will justify drawing to some crazy hands...my favorite is gutshot nut straights. But if your low pocket pair doesn't catch a set on the flop, you should almost always fold unless you have an overpair and/or some other outs.

Thanks all for the great responses. I relayed the hand incorrectly. It's hard to remember exactly how the hand goes after the fact for me. But I know that there were 19 big bets in the pot when I called the turn. I think my mistake was that the flop was not checked around. There must have been a single get that I called and the guy to my left raised. So, I closed the betting on the turn with my call.


Thanks for the great advice!

I agree with everthing that "checkraise" said about the hand and how to play it. You had odds on the flop and so i think you have done well to that point. Folding on the river would have been the best play in my opinion. The odds of you hitting your set are small and it is loose calls such as those which will cost you your bankroll. Given the betting prior to this your set would probably have been the best but i still feel like folding was the play to make in that situation.