Plugging leaks

I want/need to plug leaks in my game. This is in 4/8.


But first I have to realize the leak exists before I can plug it.


One that I think I have is folding a gutshot straight on the flop. For some reason my mind has been thinking this is a 2-outter. We know it's P = 4/47 on the turn and 4/46 on the river. Or 1-(43/47)(42/46) overall. Once in a while I sit there and watch my card come on the turn. I think ughhhh! There goes a sizable pot. And many times the turn is checked around after the flop is called for a single bet. Should I be inclined to call the flop if there's 8 or more small bets in the pot (I'm thinking implied odds here)? If I do call the flop, how inclined should I be to call the turn if my card doesn't come in? How should I factor in the fact that even when my gutshot does come in, I may still be/get beat?


Thanks,


Another leak that I think I have is calling BTF with small pairs in early position. In these LL games many people usually come in and want to see the flop. But sometimes when I have a small pair, after I call, several people will fold and then there's a raise by a late position player. I think I'm losing money in the long run, but I'm not sure. Any advice would be helpful.


Thanks,


I've played about 600 hours of single Big Blind 4/8 and am down about 2000 overall including the $3 drop when I'm on the button. Is this good? I've heard it's impossible to win in the long run at the 4/8 table. I figure I've paid about 7000 in collection in this time. So, without the collection I'd be up 5000. And if I had the potential leaks mentioned above plugged, I might even be ahead overall. What do you guys think?


Thanks,


-Michael

Michael


Good for you that you analyze and keep accurate records of your game results. These will prove to be invaluable sources of information as you continue to further your poker career.


As for your concerns, here's my 2 cents worth:


1) Gutshots - I will rarely chase gutshots because as you have said you might get beaten even if you get there. On the rare occasions that I do chase, look for some of these situations. You have a maximum of 4 clean outs, which may become 2 if there's a double flush draw present. Gutshots are a 13:1 shot at best, and you often need even more overlay from the pot (say 17-18:1) to even consider drawing at one to account for those times when you get there but still lose.


a) make sure that the flop is rainbow... that way someone will have to get runner-runner to hit a flush


b) make sure that you're chasing the "right" end of the gutshot. For example suppose you have 97 in the BB and the flop comes Q56. It may be correct to take one off if odds are there. However if the flop comes JTx, think twice about committing good $$ to chasing. More often than not you'll wind up on the wrong end.


c) do you have 2 overcards in addition to the gutshot? For example KQ when the flop comes T9x. In this scenario pairing either the K or Q could win the pot for you in addition to your gutshot


d) could you pick up a flush draw/nut flush draw with a good turn card? Backdoor draws, especially to the nuts in large pots can turn a potential fold into a call or even a raise. This becomes even more important if you've got AKs and flop comes JTx with one of your suit. Now you've got half the deck that will give you the best hand or a draw to the best hand that can come on the turn.


2) Small pairs - The game has to be almost perfect loose-passive to start thinking about these in early position. You have to be sure that the pot will be multiway coming in early. The odds if you're not familiar are 7.5:1 against you flopping a set. Small pairs are late position money makers in a multiway pot or headsup hands where you can isolate and read a weak opponent with position. The way that I cured myself of this was to take $4 from my stack and set it to side every time that I folded a pocket pair from bad position. One day I saved $48 when my pocket pairs did not connect on the flop, a sizable savings. Try this, it might help.


3) Time collection - LL time collection games are very difficult to beat in the long run. Not impossible, mind you, but difficult. The reason is because now you have to win 1.12 BB/hour to pay your time collection every hour, every day. Some days you will succeed, others you will fail. Therefore, in order to be a winning player you have to win > 1.12 BB/hour every hour every day. This collection is done every hand even if there's only $6 in the pot.


In AZ where I play, rake is done by what's in the pot. For example in a 4-8 game, $2 is taken after the pot is > $10 and another $1 is taken after the pot is > $30 for a total of $3 max rake. Therefore, if the pot is only $6, no rake. Rake is really being taken from the winning players in the game (ie the people who are stacking each pot) rather than being taken from everyone playing on an equitable basis. I think this rake system is better than time collection because it encourages the weaker players to return. They don't have to beat the game above and beyond that 1.12 BB/hour. They can concentrate on just trying to win the pot and the rake takes care of itself.


It's a sinking feeling knowing that you're going to play a 6 hour session and you're already in the hole $54 (avg $9 collection/hour/player) before you can start showing profit. Your overall results are definitely not too shabby. If you pay an avg of $9/hour x 600 hours = $5400 just to play. You've actually profitted about $3400 because of your good play but the collection expense has killed you. Without it you're making about .75 BB/hour which is still < 1.12 BB/hour. Net of -.37 BB/hour.


The only options that I can give you are to move up in limits to a bigger game ($10-$20 for example) to offset the collection or try playing in a casino that doesn't do time collection. If neither one of these is applicable to you, then you need to search for more leaks and plug them as quickly as possible. I have never played in a time collection game in my life. Hopefully some of the fellow posters like Dave in Cali, Louie Landale, KJS, and others who play in these games can advise you further on this matter.


Again, good luck to you Michael and play well.


Best wishes, Mike

[Gut Shots]. If on the turn you have a nut-gut-shot and lets say you figure to average winning 2bb on the river, and you are an 11:1 dog to hit it, you should call if there are 9bb in the pot and you don't fear any more raises. That pot size is uncommon. It is therefore rare to draw to a gut shot (with no additional value) on the turn. You should therefore NOT use the "2-cards-to-go" algorithm on the flop; rather just presume its 11:1. But on the flop your implied odds are better and the pot often comes close to justifying the investment.


Additional value: Nut straight when you make it, over-cards that result in snagging pairs that win, over-cards that reduce the chances of getting redrawn by a higher straight. Back-door flush draw. Position. Several opponents. Frequent "free" turn cards.


Reduced value: a 2-flush/3-flush/pair on board. Flop raising. Few opponents. Assertive opponents.


With 5-6 opponents B4 flop, taking one card off is often correct.


You pretty much need to decide ahead of time if THIS game often warrents takeing short odds like this.


Note: a "gut-shot" is the most likely "help" for connecting hands, and since these gut-shots are clearly not very profitable, this fact reduces the hot-cold value of these hands.


- Louie

Read this:


Hold'em Essentials: Playing Gutshots , by Jim Brier


http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/articleview.jsp?art_id=342


read it several times, until you can do the math yourself easily. It will really help.


zooey

And many times the turn is checked around after the flop is called for a single bet. Should I be inclined to call the flop if there's 8 or more small bets in the pot (I'm thinking implied odds here)?


*** Yes, especially if you have 4 "clean" outs to the nut straight ****


If I do call the flop, how inclined should I be to call the turn if my card doesn't come in?


*** You should be a little more cautious here. You are likely down to 3 outs or less here.


How should I factor in the fact that even when my gutshot does come in, I may still be/get beat?


*** With a flush draw on board, subtract 1 of the


4 outs. Insure about 15-1 odds vice 11-1. ***


Another leak that I think I have is calling BTF with small pairs in early position.


*** This one is easy, fold BTF unless your quite


certain no one will raise and you get 4-5


opponents. ****


Here are the things I think can be called "leaks"


1. Playing too many hands, especially in the first


three seats.


2. Chasing after missing the flop with 4 or more


opponents.


3. Not respecting turn raises in multiway pots.


4. Betting into 5 or more opponents with nothing.


5. Failing to be aggressive in heads up or 3 way pots.