Lord, this pot is HUGE- Who draws at the 2-outer?

[The Bear]

Party Poker 3/6 (10 handed)
Bear has 3h, 3c and is MP3

EP2 limps, MP1 limps, MP2 limps, Bear limps, CO limps, Button folds, SB raises, BB calls, EP2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, Bear calls, CO calls, SB caps, BB calls, EP2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Bear calls, CO calls

Flop(26 SB): Ad, 9c, 2s

SB bets, BB calls, EP2 calls, MP2 calls, Bear calls, CO calls

Turn(16 BB): Kd

SB bets, BB calls, EP2 calls, MP2 calls

<font color="blue"> So it's 20-1 w/ implied odds on a 23-1 shot...BUT there's a possibility that you're drawing dead. Who sees the river? Also, if you call and get there, do you raise the river and risk getting 3-bet? </font>

[ElSapo]

Well.

Man I know I'd want to fold when it came back for two bets, but you're getting the right odds immediately, only you have to consider the cap, which did happen...

The problem is you can spike a 3 and it be the wrong three. You may only have one out.

For what it's worth though, if you do call and spike I'd definitely raise. I hate drawing to hands I wont raise with if I hit.

I'd consider folding b/c you really may only have 1 out, as the other 3 makes a flush. Same for the flop actually, though it seems like an easy call.

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
Man I know I'd want to fold when it came back for two bets, but you're getting the right odds immediately, only you have to consider the cap, which did happen...

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no chance that I should fold for two bets back to me, even if I'm 100% sure that it will be capped behind me. If I flop a set, I'm going to win a ridiculous pot, and it looks like we're going to see the flop 7-ways (we eventually saw it 6-ways), so I'm almost getting sufficient immediate odds to call. I need to win 4 small bets after the flop for my call to be correct. No-brainer. Now, if I had AJo or something of that nature, it's an easy fold.

[ScottTheFish]

If I'm closing the action, I call one more and see the river. If I hit my set, i don't raise the river. I would call or even check it through. The pot is plenty big, and There's no guarantee the set is even good.

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is plenty big, and There's no guarantee the set is even good.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is only "plenty big" if 3 bets that aren't yours go in on the river.

[bdypdx]

Wow.

Like ElSapo, I too would want to fold with those 2 bets back to me, especially considering the SB raise/cap and the limp-reraise by MP2. Calling, with a likely/possible cap behind me would depend on my read/knowledge of the aggressive opponents.

Postflop: The odds as they are...with SB betting on every round, EP calling, and MP2 calling... and that flop, and that turn...

Those 3's wouldn't make me feel very cozy at all on any street. On the other hand, one can gamble.

One other thing, you didn't say anything about the table characteristics or players... Do SB, EP or MP2 have a clue?

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
Like ElSapo, I too would want to fold with those 2 bets back to me, especially considering the SB raise/cap and the limp-reraise by MP2. Calling, with a likely/possible cap behind me would depend on my read/knowledge of the aggressive opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

You absolutely cannot fold for the two bets cold back to you; it's an easy, easy, easy call, even if you are expecting the cap. The limp-reraise by MP2 is clearly a pot-building raise, but even if he turned over AA, I'm calling in a heartbeat. You are calling to flop a set (or turn/river a set, if you can get there cheaply). You easily have the odds to do that, and your implied odds are simply tremendous. I submit that routinely folding in this spot is a catastrophe. If someone can give me a mathematically compelling argument to the contrary, please do so.

[ QUOTE ]
Those 3's wouldn't make me feel very cozy at all on any street.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never thought that the 3's were the best hand. In fact, I was quite sure that they were well behind.

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand, one can gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or one can calculate the current pot/implied odds relative to the odds of hitting one's hand in order to determine whether calling is mathematically correct.

[ QUOTE ]
One other thing, you didn't say anything about the table characteristics or players... Do SB, EP or MP2 have a clue?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't been there long. I knew nothing of the opponents.

[bdypdx]

"The limp-reraise by MP2 is clearly a pot-building raise,"

You said you had no reads. How do you know this pre-flop?

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
"The limp-reraise by MP2 is clearly a pot-building raise,"

You said you had no reads. How do you know this pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he initially limped behind two other limpers. I've never seen any one limp-reraise w/ AA or KK in that spot.

[CrackerZack]

Folding PF is retarded. Folding on the flop is wrong. folding on the turn is right. 1 clean out. and you may be drawing dead. Nice pot, exit stage left.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
. I would call or even check it through. The pot is plenty big, and There's no guarantee the set is even good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scott this sounds like a leak. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're a new player right? One of the most common mistakes made by new players trying to learn the game is failing to value bet the river. A lot of players have that same line of thinking..."oh the pot is big enough already" no its never big enough. When you dont bet the river you are leaving money on the table. Making these value bets on the river is crucial.

"there's no guarantee the set is even good"

it doesnt matter. In theory of poker, we learn that when it is checked to you, your hand only needs to be a 55% favorite to win when your bet is called for the bet to have +EV. do a search for "bet the river?" and you will find zillions of posts related to this topic.

[bdypdx]

You're right about the limp-reraise. I was heading out the door and missed that in my haste.

Anyway, my saying I'd "want" to fold preflop didn't mean I "would" fold. Getting involved in a capped pot with 3's would have at least some psychological inpact, so it's not something I generally want to do. If I were playing well and thinking correctly at the time, I'd grit my teeth and call.

[Mike Haven]

imo, this is taking pot odds to maniacal extremes, instead of using good card sense

you should have folded when it was two bets back to you preflop

when there were two overcards to your mini-pair you should have folded on the flop

when there were three overcards and a two-flush on the turn you should fold

i haven't got the mathematical skills to prove my statements, so i used a poker programme

preflop you had a 5.9 to 1 chance of winning against six random hands played out

on the flop you had a 10.6 to 1 chance of winning against six random hands played out

on the turn you would have an 8.7 to chance of winning against five random hands

preflop you had put 12 into the pot of 78, so you were getting 5.5 to 1

on the flop you had put 15 into the pot of 96, so you were getting 5.4 to 1

on the turn if you had called you would have put 21 into the pot of 126, so you would have been getting 5 to 1

i accept that i am looking at winnings retrospectively, but that is exactly why good card sense has to overrule basic pot odds when you are looking at trash hands like 33

call two bets back to you preflop with a mini-pair against six players and you are on the long term road to ruin, however you interpret the pot odds in an individual hand